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Paths to victory : lessons from modern insurgencies

Author: Christopher PaulColin P ClarkeBeth GrillMolly DuniganNational Defense Research Institute (U.S.),All authors
Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, [2013] ©2013
Series: Research report (Rand Corporation), RR-291/1-OSD.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
When a country is threatened by an insurgency, what efforts give its government the best chance of prevailing? Contemporary discourse on this subject is voluminous and often contentious. Advice for the counterinsurgent is often based on little more than common sense, a general understanding of history, or a handful of detailed examples, instead of a solid, systematically collected body of historical evidence. A 2010  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Case studies
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Christopher Paul; Colin P Clarke; Beth Grill; Molly Dunigan; National Defense Research Institute (U.S.),; Rand Corporation,
ISBN: 9780833083418 0833083414
OCLC Number: 858981605
Notes: "National Defense Research Institute."
"Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense."
Description: 1 online resource (xlii, 286 pages) : illustrations (some color).
Contents: Introduction --
The cases --
Considering the "right" cases : identifying relevant subsamples --
Testing concepts for counterinsurgency --
Broader findings --
Results for motive-focused, iron first, and external-actor cases --
Conclusions and recommendations.
Series Title: Research report (Rand Corporation), RR-291/1-OSD.
Responsibility: Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Beth Grill, Molly Dunigan.

Abstract:

When a country is threatened by an insurgency, what efforts give its government the best chance of prevailing? Contemporary discourse on this subject is voluminous and often contentious. Advice for the counterinsurgent is often based on little more than common sense, a general understanding of history, or a handful of detailed examples, instead of a solid, systematically collected body of historical evidence. A 2010 RAND study challenged this trend with rigorous analyses of all 30 insurgencies that started and ended between 1978 and 2008. This update to that original study expanded the data set, adding 41 new cases and comparing all 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide since World War II. With many more cases to compare, the study was able to more rigorously test the previous findings and address critical questions that the earlier study could not. For example, it could examine the approaches that led counterinsurgency forces to prevail when an external actor was involved in the conflict. It was also able to address questions about timing and duration, such as which factors affect the duration of insurgencies and the durability of the resulting peace, as well as how long historical counterinsurgency forces had to engage in effective practices before they won.

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