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Prediction or prophecy? : the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences

Author: Gregor Betz; Holm Tetens
Publisher: Wiesbaden : Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag, 2006.
Dissertation: Freie University, Diss.--Berlin, 2004.
Series: Wirtschaftswissenschaft.
Edition/Format:   Thesis/dissertation : Document : Thesis/dissertation : eBook   Computer File : English : 1. AuflView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
Economic policy making matters to all of us. Economists are supposed to provide the necessary knowledge which enables policy makers to take effective economic policy decisions. Gregor Betz explores the following questions: " Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? " Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Betz, Gregor.
Prediction or Prophecy?
Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien, ©2007
Material Type: Document, Thesis/dissertation, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Gregor Betz; Holm Tetens
ISBN: 3835090534 9783835090538
OCLC Number: 646750862
Description: 1 online resource (xiv, 280 pages) : illustrations.
Contents: Assessing the predictive limits of economics --
Recent performance of economic forecasts --
A historical perspective on economic forecast performance --
Forecast performance in natural sciences --
Understanding the predictive limits of economics --
Predictability of complex systems --
The quality of data --
Expectations and reflexiveness --
Sensitive dependence on initial conditions --
Experiment and simulation --
Unrealistic-assumption explanations --
Living with the predictive limits of economics --
Consequences for traditional decision making --
Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance --
Post-normal science.
Series Title: Wirtschaftswissenschaft.
Responsibility: Gregor Betz ; with a foreword by Holm Tetens.
More information:

Abstract:

Economic policy making matters to all of us. Economists are supposed to provide the necessary knowledge which enables policy makers to take effective economic policy decisions. Gregor Betz explores the following questions: " Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? " Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? " Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all? Numerous case studies, drawn from economics and natural sciences, underpin the general argumentation.

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