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Price expectations in rising inflation

Author: Ignazio Visco
Publisher: Amsterdam ; New York : North-Holland, 1984.
Series: Contributions to economic analysis, 152.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
It is claimed in this book that expectations should not necessarily be treated as unobservable variables and that there is much to be learned from survey data. A unique data set is examined, the output of surveys conducted twice a year since 1952, among informed Italian businessmen and economic experts. The predictive accuracy, rationality and determinants of inflation expectations are investigated, following an  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Visco, I.
Price Expectations in Rising Inflation.
Burlington : Elsevier Science, ©2014
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Ignazio Visco
ISBN: 9781483295831 1483295834
OCLC Number: 897647425
Notes: 5.6. Error of Measurement Problems: Some Tentative Results.
Description: 1 online resource (289 pages).
Contents: Front Cover; Price Expectations in Rising Inflation; Copyright Page; INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES; Dedication; PREFACE; Table of Contents; CHAPTER 1. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: THE DIRECT APPROACH; 1.1. The Importance of Direct Estimates of Inflation Expectations; 1.2. A Brief Review of Direct Sources on Inflation Expectations; 1.3. The Mondo Economico Opinion Poll; 1.4. General Remarks on the Number and the Composition of Participants and Respondents to the Mondo Economico Surveys; 1.5. The First Series of Mondo Economico Surveys (2nd Semester 1952 to 2nd Semester 1977). 1.6. The Second Series of Mondo Economico Surveys (1st Semester 1978 to 2nd Semester 19801.7. The Third Series of Mondo Economico Surveys (from 1st Quarter 1981); 1.8. General Remarks and Comparison with Other Surveys on Inflation Expectations; CHAPTER 2. THE MEASUREMENT OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS; 2.1. The Measurement of the Expected Rate of Inflation from Survey Data: General Remarks and the Case of Qualitative Surveys; 2.2. The Measurement of the Expected Rate of Inflation: Quantitative Surveys and the Mondo Economico Data. 2.3. The (Average) Expected Rate of Inflation and the Standard Deviation of Individual Expectations: Distribution Hypotheses and Results2.4. Tests of the Normal Hypothesis and of the Piecewise Uniform Correction, and the Selection of ""Best"" Estimates of the Means and Standard Deviations of Individual Expected Rates of Inflation; 2.5. Comparison between the Expectations of the ""Production"" and the ""Other"" Groups; 2.6. Summary of the Results; Appendix to Chapter 2; CHAPTER 3. EVALUATION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, 1: ACCURACY ANALYSIS; 3.1. Preliminary Analysis and General Remarks. 3.2. Actual vs. Anticipated Rates of Change of Prices3.3. The Evaluation of Forecasting Accuracy; 3.4. The Predictive Accuracy of the Inflation Expectations of the Respondents to Mondo Economic Surveys; 3.5. The Anticipation of Turning Points; 3.6. Summary of the Results; 3.6. Summary of the Results; CHAPTER 4. EVALUATION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, 2: COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE PREDICTORS; 4.1. The Predictors of Wholesale and Consumer Price Changes Chosen for Comparison; 4.2. Preliminary Comparison of Expected Rates of Price Changes and Alternative Predictors of Inflation. 4.3. Comparison in Terms of Predictive Accuracy of Inflation Expectations and Alternative Predictors4.4. Tests of Relative Forecasting Performance; 4.5. Turning Point Analysis; 4.6. Summary of the Results; CHAPTER 5. UNBIASEDNESS AND RATIONALITY OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS; 5.1. The Issue of ""Rational"" Expectations; 5.2. The Testing of Rational Expectations; 5.3. Statistical Analysis of Anticipation Errors and Tests of Unbiasedness; 5.4. Tests of Rationality of Inflation Expectations; 5.5. Aggregation Problems and Tests of Unbiasedness and Rationality.
Series Title: Contributions to economic analysis, 152.
Responsibility: Ignazio Visco.

Abstract:

It is claimed in this book that expectations should not necessarily be treated as unobservable variables and that there is much to be learned from survey data. A unique data set is examined, the output of surveys conducted twice a year since 1952, among informed Italian businessmen and economic experts. The predictive accuracy, rationality and determinants of inflation expectations are investigated, following an extensive analysis of measurement issues. The estimate of inflation expectations are evaluated for both wholesale and consumer price changes, comparing them with those held by responden.

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