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Quantitative assessment of a free trade agreement between MERCOSUR and the European Union

Author: Ivan Boyer; Andrés Ricardo Schuschny; United Nations. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. División de Estadística y Proyecciones.; United Nations. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. División de Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura.
Publisher: Santiago, Chile : Naciones Unidas, CEPAL, 2010.
Series: Serie Estudios estadísticos y prospectivos, 69.
Edition/Format:   Print book : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Using a GTAP CGE model/database, this paper assesses the possible effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU). The study takes into consideration the most important recent free trade agreements signed among the Latin American countries, as well as the latest European Union enlargements. With a 2004+ benchmark base scenario where tariffs were updated by the addition of  Read more...
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Material Type: Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Ivan Boyer; Andrés Ricardo Schuschny; United Nations. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. División de Estadística y Proyecciones.; United Nations. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. División de Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura.
ISBN: 9789211217285 9211217288
OCLC Number: 651910871
Notes: "Statistics and Economic Projections Division; Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division."
"April 2010."
"Sales no. E.09. II. G.131"--Title page verso.
Description: 74 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm.
Contents: Abstract --
Introduction --
Recent trade trends between the two blocs and the motivations to sign an agreement --
Methodology --
Results analysis --
Conclusions.
Series Title: Serie Estudios estadísticos y prospectivos, 69.
Responsibility: Ivan Boyer, Andrés Schuschny.

Abstract:

Using a GTAP CGE model/database, this paper assesses the possible effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU). The study takes into consideration the most important recent free trade agreements signed among the Latin American countries, as well as the latest European Union enlargements. With a 2004+ benchmark base scenario where tariffs were updated by the addition of information on trade agreements just signed by Latin American countries, two different policy simulations are addressed: (i) full liberatlization, (ii) liberalization excluding sensitive products. The global CGE: model allows analyzing direct and indirect socio-economic impacts on subscriber countries as well as on other countries in the region. From the point of view of the MERCOSUR countries, the results suggest that the FTA would be beneficial to foster their exports, especially in the case of light manufactures. Imports to MERCOSUR from the EU would be increased, particularly in heavy manufactures sectors. In terms of GDP the results remain positive int he case of all the MERCOSUR countries in the simulated scenarios. The inclusion of sensitive products in the agreements seems to reduce the magnitude of the results but does not change the direction of the impacts. In any case, active positive impacts and seize dynamic opportunities towards sustainable development must be undertaken. The main conclusion points out a potential complementary trade relationship among these two regions.

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