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Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012.

Author: International Monetary Fund Middle East and Central Asia Dept
Publisher: Washington : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Series: Regional Economic Outlook.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Asia Dept., International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central.
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012: Middle East and Central Asia.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2012
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: International Monetary Fund Middle East and Central Asia Dept
ISBN: 9781475578379 1475578377
OCLC Number: 870245064
Notes: 2.10 Gross International Reserves Declining.
Description: 1 online resource (131 pages).
Contents: Cover; Contents; Acknowledgments; Assumptions and Conventions; Country and Regional Groupings; World Economic Outlook; MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN; MENAP Highlights; Tables; MENAP Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000-13; Région MOANAP: Principaux points; 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs; Oil GDP Growth Falling, Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy; Figures; 1.1 2012 GDP Growth Boosted by Libya; 1.2 Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy; Boxes; 1.1 Libya: Moving Beyond the Revolution; Wage Increases Weaken Public Finances. 1.3 Qatar Has Driven Gas Export Growth1.4 Government Wage Bills Rising Fast; 1.5 Fiscal Positions Have Deteriorated; 1.2 What Is the 'Right' Surplus for the GCC?; A Sustained Large Drop in Oil Prices Is a Key Risk; 1.3 Outward Spillovers from a GDP Shock in the GCC Region; Expenditure Restraint Would Increase Resilience; 1.6 Fiscal Balances Sensitive to Oil Prices; 1.7 Fiscal Vulnerability Rising; 1.8 Probability that Oil Price Falls Below Fiscal Breakeven Price; Current Account Surpluses Sensitive to Oil Price; Infl ation Developments Mixed; 1.9 Large Current Account Surpluses. 1.10 Credit Growth Rising1.11 Event Study of Oil Prices, 1970-2012; Renewed Bond Issuance; 1.12 GCC Sukuk Issuance Up; 1.13 GCC Bond Yields Down; Reforms for More Inclusive Growth; 1.4 Financial Spillovers to MENAP Oil Exporters; 1.14 Stock Markets Have Made Gains in 2012; 1.15 MENAP Oil Exporters: Restricted International Trade in Services; 1.16 Private-Sector Job Creation for GCC Nationals: High But Not Enough; Annex 1.1. The Natural Gas Market: Where Is It Heading?; Natural Gas Supply Is Meeting Demand; The Increasing Importance of Shale Gas. Benefi ts of Indexation to Oil, Regional SegmentationAnnex 1.2. Inward Spillovers to MENA Countries from a GDP Shock in G3 Countries; Shock to Chinese GDP; Shock to U.S. GDP; Shock to Euro Area GDP; MENAP Oil Exporters: Selected Economic Indicators; 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth; Downturn Continues in 2012, Possible Moderate Recovery in 2013; 2.1 Exports and Imports of Goods; 2.1 Syria's Crisis: Domestic Economic Impact and Regional Spillovers; Inflation Stable in Most Countries, But Concerns Rising. 2.2 Real GDP Growth in 2012 Similar to 20112.3 Weak Recovery in 2013; 2.4 Inflationary Pressures; 2.2 The Economics of Political Transitions; External Deficits Widening, Reserve Buffers Diminished; 2.5 Exchange Rates Have Appreciated in Some Countries; 2.6 International Tourist Arrivals; 2.7 External Current Account Deficits Continue to Widen; 2.3 Recovering from a Downturn: Lessons from Past Business Cycles; Need for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility; 2.8 International Issuance of Bonds, Equity, and Loans; 2.9 Official Financing Disbursed since Arab Awakening.
Series Title: Regional Economic Outlook.

Abstract:

The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region's oil exporters are expec.

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