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The road to the White House, 2004 : the politics of presidential elections

Author: Stephen J Wayne
Publisher: Belmont, CA : Wadsworth/Thomson Learning, ©2004.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
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Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Stephen J Wayne
ISBN: 0534614256 9780534614256
OCLC Number: 54000954
Description: xx, 364 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
Contents: Part I The Electoral Arena --
1 Presidential Selection: A Historical Overview 3 --
The Creation of the Electoral College 4 --
The Development of Nominating Systems 6 --
The Evolution of the General Election 13 --
The 2000 Presidential Election Controversy 17 --
The Legal Challenges 17 --
The Public Relations Campaign 20 --
The Politics of Electoral College Voting 23 --
2 Campaign Finance 32 --
The Costs of Campaigning 33 --
The Sources of Support 36 --
Finance Legislation 38 --
Box 2-1 Exploiting the Soft Money Loophole 41 --
Box 2-2 Contribution Limits (before and after McCain-Feingold) 43 --
The Impact of the Law 44 --
Revenue 44 --
Box 2-3 The Well-Funded Candidate's Dilemma: To Accept or Reject Government Funds 50 --
Box 2-4 The Money Race for the 2000 Nomination 51 --
Expenditures 53 --
Competition Between Parties and Their Candidates 56 --
Money and Electoral Success 57 --
3 The Political Environment 65 --
Turnout 66 --
The Expansion of Suffrage 68 --
Other Influences on Turnout 71 --
Box 3-1 Registering to Vote 72 --
Turnout and Partisanship 76 --
The Partisan Basis of Politics 77 --
A Model of the U.S. Voter 77 --
A More Refined Theory of Voting 79 --
Partisan Voting Patterns 80 --
Partisan Deviations 81 --
The Social Basis of Politics 83 --
The New Deal Realignment 83 --
Evolving Political Coalitions 85 --
The Future of the Parties 92 --
Part II The Nomination --
4 The Race for Delegates 103 --
Reforming the Nomination Process 104 --
Democratic Rules, 1968-1980 104 --
Box 4-1 The Iowa Caucus: How It Works 107 --
Democratic Rules, 1981-Present 108 --
Republican Rules 110 --
The Legality of Party Rules 111 --
The Impact of the Rules Changes 114 --
Turnout 114 --
Representation 115 --
Party Organization and Leadership 116 --
Winners and Losers 117 --
Campaigning for Delegates 118 --
Basic Strategic Guidelines 118 --
Box 4-2 The Air Wars of 2000: The Nominations 128 --
The Non-Front-Runner Strategy: Stepping-Stones to Prominence 136 --
Box 4-3 Non-Front-Runner Strategies in 2000 137 --
Other Non-Front-Runner Approaches: Using the Campaign as a Pulpit 142 --
The Front-Runner Strategy: Amassing Delegates 143 --
Box 4-4 Front-Runner Strategies in 2000 144 --
5 Spring Interregnum: Consolidating Victory and Posturing for the Election 159 --
The Noncompetitive Phase of the Nomination Campaign 159 --
Image Repair 159 --
Repositioning and Reprioritizing the Issues 161 --
Healing Partisan Discord 162 --
The Prelude to the Conventions 162 --
National Nominating Conventions 164 --
The Tradition 164 --
The Official Proceedings 166 --
Intra- and Interparty Disputes 170 --
Convention Strategies and Tactics 172 --
Box 5-1 Contrasts in the 2000 Republican and Democratic Party Platforms 173 --
The Mediated Convention: Theater and News 174 --
Box 5-2 Minor Party Conventions 178 --
Assessing the Convention's Impact 179 --
Characteristics of the Nominees 182 --
Part III The Presidential Campaign --
6 Organization, Strategy, and Tactics 193 --
Running the Campaign 197 --
Transitioning to Government 200 --
Strategic Objectives 201 --
Designing a Basic Appeal 202 --
Creating a Leadership Image 204 --
Dealing with Incumbency 207 --
Building a Winning Geographic Coalition 208 --
Box 6-1 An Incumbency Balance Sheet 209 --
Tactical Considerations 212 --
Reaching Voters 212 --
Orchestrating the Campaign 213 --
Targeting Messages 215 --
Timing Appeals 216 --
Turning Out Voters 216 --
7 Media Politics 225 --
Traditional Coverage: Hard News 228 --
The Bad News Syndrome 230 --
The Story Line 232 --
Impact of the News Media 234 --
Nontraditional Coverage: Soft News 235 --
Presidential Debates 237 --
Preparation 240 --
Strategy and Tactics 241 --
Evaluation and Impact 242 --
Campaign Advertising 245 --
Techniques and Timing 246 --
Targeting 249 --
Images and Messages 249 --
Box 7-1 The Air Wars of 2000: Advertising Strategies 253 --
The Cumulative Impact of the Media 257 --
Part IV The Election --
8 Understanding Presidential Elections 269 --
Predicting Presidential Elections 270 --
Formal Models 270 --
Public Opinion Polls 272 --
Television Forecasts 276 --
Interpreting the Election 278 --
Models of Voting Behavior 279 --
1952-1956: The Impact of Personality 280 --
1960-1972: The Increasing Importance of Issues 281 --
1976-1996: The Evaluation of Performance 282 --
2000: The Anticipation of Future Performance 289 --
Converting Electoral Choice into Public Policy 291 --
The President's Imprecise Mandate 291 --
Party Platforms, Campaign Pledges, and the New Agenda 293 --
Expectations and Performance 293 --
The Electoral Coalition and Governing 294 --
Personality Politics and Presidential Leadership 295 --
9 Reforming the Electoral System 306 --
Modifying Recent Changes 307 --
Party Rules 307 --
Finance Laws 312 --
News Media Coverage 315 --
Enhancing Electoral Choice 317 --
Turnout 317 --
Electoral Reform 320 --
The Electoral College 321 --
Appendix A Results of Presidential Elections, 1900-2000 336 --
Appendix B 2000 Electoral and Popular Vote Summary 338 --
Appendix C 2000 Electoral Vote Distribution 340 --
Appendix D Tentative Democratic Caucus and Primary Schedule, January-March 2004 341 --
Appendix E Republican and Democratic Party Conventions and Nominees, 1900-2004 342.
Responsibility: Stephen J. Wayne.

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