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The role of monetary policy in Turkey during the global financial crisis

Author: Harun Alp; Selim Elekdag; International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department,
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2011.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/11/150.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Harun Alp; Selim Elekdag; International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department,
ISBN: 1283556251 9781283556255
OCLC Number: 742339296
Description: 1 online resource (75 pages).
Contents: Cover; Contents; Executive Summary; I. Introduction; II. Economic Developments in Turkey: The Role of Macroeconomic Reforms; III. The Model; IV. Estimation; V. Model Dynamics; VI. Historical Decompositions; VII. The Role of Monetary Policy during the Crisis; VIII. Summary and Main Policy Implications; Appendix; Tables; 1. Turkey: Financial Ratios across Selected Industries; 2. Calibrated Parameters; 3. Prior and Posterior Distributions; 4. Sensitivity Analysis; 5. The Role of Monetary Policy and Financial Reforms; 6. Measuring the Severity of Economic Contractions; Figures. 1. Turkey: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators2. Model Schematic; 3. Model Predictions versus the Data; 4. Dynamic Responses to a Monetary Policy Shock; 5. Turkey: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism; 6. Historical Decomposition: The Role of Monetary Policy; 7. Historical Decomposition: Crisis Shocks; 8. Historical Decomposition: Other Supply and Demand Shocks; 9. Counterfactual Scenarios: The Role of Monetary Policy and Real GDP; Appendix Table; 1. Alternative Measuring of Actual and Simulated Recessions; Appendix Figures; 1a. Prior Posterior Distributions (Parameters). 1b. Prior Posterior Distributions (Standard Deviations of Shocks)1c. Prior Posterior Distributions (Shock Processes Parameter); 2a. Impulse Responses: UIP Shock; 2b. Impulse Responses: Foreign Interest Rate Shock; 3a. Impulse Responses: Foreign Demand Shock; 3b. Impulse Responses: Net Worth Shock; 4a. Impulse Responses: Unit Root Technology Shock; 4b. Impulse Responses: Stationary Technology Shock; 5a. Impulse Responses: Domestic Mark-up Shock; 5b. Impulse Responses: Foreign Inflation Shock; 6a. Impulse Responses: Government Spending Shock; 6b. Impulse Responses: Preference Shock.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/11/150.
Responsibility: Harun Alp and Selim Elekdag.

Abstract:

Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much deeper would the recent recession have been? Counterfactual experiments based on an estimated structural model provide quantitative evidence which suggests that the recession would have been substantially more severe. In other words, the interest rate cuts implemented by the CBRT and exchange rate flexibility both helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis.

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