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Russian Federation : selected issues.

Author: Agustin Roitman; International Monetary Fund.
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2014.
Series: IMF country report, no. 14/176.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output and the output gap in Russia. Estimating potential output in Russia is difficult because its economy is large and complex, in transition, and dependent on oil. First, Russia presents large territorial and sectoral heterogeneity. Second, structural issues are difficult to estimate in transition economies. Third, the energy sector dominates exports and GDP, making  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Russian Federation : selected issues.
Washington, District of Columbia : International Monetary Fund, ©2014
18 pages
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Agustin Roitman; International Monetary Fund.
ISBN: 9781498358811 1498358810 1498336760 9781498336765 1513594885 9781513594880
OCLC Number: 882934470
Notes: "Prepared by Agustin Roitman"--Page 2 of pdf.
"July 2014."
"June 12, 2014"--Page 2 of pdf.
"Russia's trend growth is volatile. The transition from a centrally planned to a market economy started in 1991, hence time series are relatively short compared to other countries. The size and depth of structural reforms during the 1990's, the financial crisis and default in 1998, followed by the oil boom in the 2000's, and subsequent GFC, make identification of a stable "long run" growth trend a very hard task. Hence, it is complicated to pin down an accurate estimate of potential growth and the output gap"--Abstract.
Description: 1 online resource (19 pages) : color illustrations.
Contents: Cover; CONTENTS; POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND THE OUTPUT GAP IN RUSSIA; A. Introduction; B. Pros, Cons, and Pitfalls when Estimating Potential Output; C. Potential Output and Output Gap Estimations for Russia; D. Observable Indicators and a Probabilistic Approach; FIGURES; 1. Output Gap; 2. Real Sector Indicators; 3. Capacity Utilization and Labor Market Indicators; 4. Output Gap in Russia; 5. Trend Volatility; 6. Potential Growth; E. Conclusion; 7. Population Dynamics and Trading Partner's Growth; APPENDIX; REFERENCES.
Series Title: IMF country report, no. 14/176.

Abstract:

This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output and the output gap in Russia. Estimating potential output in Russia is difficult because its economy is large and complex, in transition, and dependent on oil. First, Russia presents large territorial and sectoral heterogeneity. Second, structural issues are difficult to estimate in transition economies. Third, the energy sector dominates exports and GDP, making Russia vulnerable to large terms of trade shocks. This paper estimates potential output taking into account these challenges and using a variety of methodologies. The results obtained show that the output gap in Russia exhibits high uncertainty.

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