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Searching for non-monotonic effects of fiscal policy : new evidence

Author: Francesco Giavazzi; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2005.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), working paper no. 11593.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
"Data revisions and the availability of a longer sample offer the opportunity to reconsider the empirical findings that suggest that in the OECD countries national saving responds non-monotonically to fiscal policy. The paper confirms that the circumstance most likely to give rise to a non-monotonic response of national saving to a fiscal impulse is a "large and persistent impulse", defined as one in which the full  Read more...
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Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Francesco Giavazzi; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 61838229
Notes: "August 2005."
Description: 23 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), working paper no. 11593.
Responsibility: Francesco Giavazzi [and others].

Abstract:

"Data revisions and the availability of a longer sample offer the opportunity to reconsider the empirical findings that suggest that in the OECD countries national saving responds non-monotonically to fiscal policy. The paper confirms that the circumstance most likely to give rise to a non-monotonic response of national saving to a fiscal impulse is a "large and persistent impulse", defined as one in which the full employment surplus, as a percent of potential output, changes by at least 1.5 percentage points per year over a two-year period. This particular circumstance remains the only statistically significant one even when we allow for non-monotonic responses to arise when public debt is growing rapidly or interest rate spreads are widening. We find that non-monotonic responses are similar for fiscal contractions and expansions. In particular, an increase in net taxes has no effect on national saving during large fiscal contractions or expansions. For government consumption there is a large, albeit in some specifications less then complete, offset during expansions or contractions"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

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