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Sex ratios and exchange rates

Author: Qingyuan Du; Shang-Jin Wei; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2011.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 16788.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
A rise in the sex ratio (increasing relative surplus of men in the marriage market) in China and several other economies, in theory, can simultaneously generate a decline in the real exchange rate (RER) and a rise in the current account surplus. We demonstrate this logic through both a savings channel and an effective labor supply channel. In this model, a low RER is not a cause of the current account surplus, nor  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Qingyuan Du; Shang-Jin Wei; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 701722617
Description: 1 online resource (32, [10], 12 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 16788.
Responsibility: Qingyuan Du, Shang-Jin Wei.

Abstract:

A rise in the sex ratio (increasing relative surplus of men in the marriage market) in China and several other economies, in theory, can simultaneously generate a decline in the real exchange rate (RER) and a rise in the current account surplus. We demonstrate this logic through both a savings channel and an effective labor supply channel. In this model, a low RER is not a cause of the current account surplus, nor is it a consequence of currency manipulations. Empirically, those economies with a high sex ratio tend to have a low real exchange rate, beyond what can be explained by the Balassa-Samuelson effect, financial underdevelopment, dependence ratio, and exchange rate regime classifications. Once these factors are accounted for, the Chinese real exchange rate is estimated to be undervalued by only a relatively trivial amount.

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