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Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography

Author: Robert J Lempert; Steven W Popper; Steven C Bankes
Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2003.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Lempert, Robert J.
Shaping the next one hundred years.
Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2003
(DLC) 2003012438
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Robert J Lempert; Steven W Popper; Steven C Bankes
ISBN: 0833034855 9780833034854
OCLC Number: 559502047
Notes: "MR-1626."
Description: 1 online resource (xxi, 187 pages)
Responsibility: Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes.

Abstract:

The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decis.

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