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The signal and the noise : why most predictions fail but some don't

Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: New York : Penguin Press, 2012
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.
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Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Nate Silver
ISBN: 9781594204111 159420411X 9781846147524 1846147522
OCLC Number: 830024039
Notes: Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In "The Signal and the Noise", the "New York Times'" political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success?. And why do so many predictions still fail?. By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction. We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives
A catastrophic failure of prediction. Are you smarter than a television pundit?. All I care about is W's and L's. For years you've been telling us that rain is green. Desperately seeking signal. How to frown in three feet of water. Role models. Less and less and less wrong. Rage against the machines. The poker bubble. If you can't beat 'em ... A climate of healthy skepticism. What you don't know can hurt you
Description: 534 s. : illustrations ; 25 cm
Contents: Indhold: A catastrophic failure of prediction ; Are you smarter than a television pundit ; All i care about is W's and L's ; For years you've been telling us that rain is green ; Desperately seeking signal ; How to drown in three feet of water ; Role models ; Less and less and less wrong ; Rage against the machines ; The poker bubble ; If you can't beat'em ... ; A climate of healthy skepticism ; What you don't know can hurt you

Abstract:

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. In this book, the author explores the art  Read more...

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Outstanding... fun to read... Silver has produced a signal that is a pleasure to follow -- Tim Harford * Financial Times * Engagingly written... wholly satisfying... one of the more momentous books Read more...

 
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