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South Africa : the cyclical behavior of the markups and its implications for monetary policy

Author: Nir Klein; International Monetary Fund. African Department,
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2011.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/11/204.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
The study looks at the cyclical behavior of the markups and assesses its impact on inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that the aggregate level of the private sector's markup is relatively high, thus pointing to the lack of strong competition in South Africa's product markets. Additionally, the results suggest that the markups tend to move in a countercyclical manner, with a short-term positive impact on  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Klein, Nir.
South Africa: The Cyclical Behavior of the Markups and its Implications for Monetary Policy.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2011
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Nir Klein; International Monetary Fund. African Department,
ISBN: 1283568098 9781283568098 9781463955908 1463955901 1463969023 9781463969028
OCLC Number: 753943128
Notes: At head of title: African Department.
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed September 20, 2011).
"August 2011."
Available in PDF, ePUB, and Mobi formats on the Internet.
Description: 1 online resource (23 pages) : illustrations.
Contents: Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; 1. G-20: Intensity of local competition; II. The link between prices and output: some stylized facts; 2. Correlation between output gap and inflation; III. Measuring the markup and its cyclical pattern; A. The link between the markup and the labor share; 3. South Africa: The Business Cycle and the change in the labor share; 4. South Africa: Output gap and the change in real remuneration per employee; 5. South Africa: The coefficient of variation of the nominal wage, GDP deflator, and CPI. B. Deriving the markup from the Nominal Solow Residual6. South Africa: The Calculated markup in the private sector; 7. South Africa: The cyclical component of GDP and the markup; 1. OLS Estimation Results, 1980Q1-2009Q4; 8. The coefficient of output gap, rolling regrassion, 1985-2009; IV. The link between the markup gap, inflation and output gap; 2. VAR Estimation Results, 1980Q1-2009Q4; 9. Impulse response functions; 3. Variance decomposition; V. Conclusions and policy implications. A1. South Africa: 10 year rolling correlation of output gap with the CPI inflation and the change in GDP deflator, 1980-2009A1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests, 1980-2009; A2. Summary statistics, 1980-2009; A2. VAR endogenous Variables; A3. Residuals of VAR estimation; A3. VAR Estimation Results, 1995Q1-2009Q4; A4. Impulse response functions, VAR estimation, 1995Q1-2009Q4; References; Footnotes.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/11/204.
Responsibility: Nir Klein.

Abstract:

The study looks at the cyclical behavior of the markups and assesses its impact on inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that the aggregate level of the private sector's markup is relatively high, thus pointing to the lack of strong competition in South Africa's product markets. Additionally, the results suggest that the markups tend to move in a countercyclical manner, with a short-term positive impact on inflation. This implies that the countercyclical pattern of the markups is one factor among others that contribute to the relatively weak output gap-inflation co-movement. In the context of South Africa's inflation targeting framework, the counter-cyclical markups may also generate an asymmetric response of monetary policy to the fluctuations in economic activity.

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