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Sticking with what (barely) worked

Author: Lars Lefgren; Brennan Christopher Platt; Joseph Price; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2011.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 17477.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win -- even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about future  Read more...
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Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Lefgren, Lars.
Sticking with what (barely) worked.
Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2011
(DLC) 2011657362
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Lars Lefgren; Brennan Christopher Platt; Joseph Price; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 756496166
Notes: Title from http://www.nber.org/papers/17477 viewed Oct. 10, 2011.
"October 2011."
Description: 1 online resource (33 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 17477.
Responsibility: Lars Lefgren, Brennan Platt, Joseph Price.

Abstract:

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win -- even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about future success. This increased revision following a loss occurs even when a loss was expected, and the offensive strategy is revised even when failure is attributable to the defense. These results are consistent with our model's predictions.

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