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Still minding the gap : inflation dynamics during episodes of persistent large output gaps

Author: Andre Meier; International Monetary Fund. European Department,
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2010.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/10/189.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Meier, André.
Still Minding the Gap - Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2010
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Andre Meier; International Monetary Fund. European Department,
ISBN: 9781455286881 1455286885 1282846612 9781282846616
OCLC Number: 694142376
Description: 1 online resource (36 pages) : color illustrations.
Contents: Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Relation to the Literature; The New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Typical estimation strategies and findings; Methodological pitfalls; Empirical strategy of this paper; III. Data Sources, Definitions, and Composition of the Sample; IV. Inflation Dynamics during PLOG Episodes; Why might disinflation peter out at very low rates of inflation?; V. Dynamics of Key Covariates; What else happens during PLOG episodes?; Is the extent of disinflation associated with other macroeconomic developments? Are unusual observations special in any systematic way?VI. Implications for the Current Inflation Outlook; Putting the current situation in a historical perspective; Are we missing something? Central bank credibility and fiscal strains; VII. Conclusion; References; Footnotes.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/10/189.
Other Titles: Inflation dynamics during episodes of persistent large output gaps
Responsibility: prepared by André Meier.

Abstract:

This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at very low positive inflation rates, arguably reflecting downward nominal rigidities and well-anchored inflation expectations. Temporary inflation increases during episodes were, in turn, systematically related to currency depreciation or higher oil prices. Overall, the historical patterns suggest little upside inflation risk in advanced economies facing the prospect of persistent large output gaps.

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