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The structural manifestation of the "Dutch disease" : the case of oil exporting countries

Author: Kareem Ismail; International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department,
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2010.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/10/103.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This study derives structural implications of the Dutch disease in oil-exporting countries due to permanent oil price shocks from a typical model. We then test these implications in manufacturing sector data across a wide group of countries including oil-exporters covering 1977 to 2004. The results on oil-exporting countries are four folds. First, we find that permanent increases in oil price negatively impact  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Ismail, Kareem.
Structural Manifestation of the `Dutch Disease': The Case of Oil Exporting Countries.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2010
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Kareem Ismail; International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department,
ISBN: 1283561573 9781283561570 9781455286874 1455286877
OCLC Number: 609895977
Description: 1 online resource (37 pages) : color illustrations.
Contents: Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Theoretical Model; A. The Dutch Disease with No Capital Mobility across Borders; B. The Dutch Disease with Capital Mobility across Borders; 1. The Effect of Oil Booms on Capital Flows Depending on Capital Intensity of Non-tradables; C. The Case of Multiple Industrial Sectors; IV. Estimation of the Structural Impact of Oil Shocks; A. Data; B. Estimation Strategy and Results; 1. Measuring the Dutch Disease; 2. The Dutch Disease in Closed versus Open Capital Markets. 3. The Dutch Disease in Relative Factor Prices and Factor IntensitiesV. Conclusion; A. Proofs; A.1. The Dutch Disease with No Capital Mobility across Borders; A.2. The Dutch Disease with Capital Mobility across Borders; B. Oil Price Decompositions; 2. Oil price decompositions (logs) and the WTI crude oil spot price; B.1. Kalman Filter Decomposition --
Arbatli (2008); C. Empirical Results; 1. List of Oil Exporting Countries in the Sample; 2. Description of variables; 3. The Dutch Disease Effect on Output and Value Added: Using Eqn (13). 4. The Dutch Disease Effect showing the Cumulative Impact over 4 years of Kalman and H-P Filtered Permanent Oil Price Shocks: Using Eqn (14)5. The Dutch Disease and Capital Market Openness to FDI by Country: Using Eqn (15); 3. The Dutch Disease and FDI financial integration for All Countries in Sample; 4. The Dutch Disease and FDI financial integration for Countries with Statistically Significant Dutch disease; 6. The Dutch Disease in Countries with Open and less Open Capital markets (Proposition 7): Using Eqn (15). 7. The Dutch Disease Effect on Relative Wages and Factor Intensity: Using Eqn (16)8. The Dutch Disease Across Industries with Different Capital Intensities: Using Eqn (15); 5. The Dutch Disease and Capital Intensity by Sector; References; Footnotes.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/10/103.
Responsibility: prepared by Kareem Ismail.

Abstract:

This study derives structural implications of the Dutch disease in oil-exporting countries due to permanent oil price shocks from a typical model. We then test these implications in manufacturing sector data across a wide group of countries including oil-exporters covering 1977 to 2004. The results on oil-exporting countries are four folds. First, we find that permanent increases in oil price negatively impact output in manufacturing as consistent with the Dutch disease. Second, Evidence in the data shows that oil windfall shocks have a stronger impact on manufacturing sectors in countries with more open capital markets to foreign investment. Third, we find that the relative factor price of labor to capital, and capital intensity in manufacturing sectors appreciate as windfall increases. Fourth, we find that manufacturing sectors with higher capital intensity are less affected by windfall shocks than their peers, possibly due to a larger share of the effect being absorbed by more labor intensive tradable sectors. An implication of the fourth result is that having diverse manufacturing sectors in capital intensity helps cushion the volatility of oil shocks.

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