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Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan

Author: Nicoletta Batini; Giovanni Callegari; Giovanni Melina; International Monetary Fund. European Department.
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/12/190.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Nicoletta Batini; Giovanni Callegari; Giovanni Melina; International Monetary Fund. European Department.
ISBN: 1475537921 9781475537925
OCLC Number: 801825281
Notes: Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jul. 26, 2012).
"EUR."
"July 2012."
Description: 1 online resource (60 pages) : color charts.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/12/190.
Responsibility: prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Melina.

Abstract:

The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country's debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to front loaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases.

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