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Taking Chances : Winning with Probability.

Author: John Haigh
Publisher: Oxford : OUP Oxford, 2003.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Popular works
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Haigh, John.
Taking Chances : Winning with Probability.
Oxford : OUP Oxford, ©2003
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: John Haigh
ISBN: 9780191500558 0191500550 9780191594106 0191594105
OCLC Number: 818851552
Description: 1 online resource (622 pages)
Contents: Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Dedication; Preface; Perface to the Second Edition; Contents; 1 What is probability?; Think straight; The inviolable rule; Some working methods; Long runs; Averages and variability; 2 Lotteries; Your chance of winning; A winning strategy?; More than one ticket?; Other lotteries; Are the numbers drawn really random?; Summary; Postscript; 3 Football Pools, Premium Bonds; Football Pools; Premium Bonds; The best gamble?; 4 One coin, many games; How's your intuition?; Game on; Penney-ante; How long are you in the lead?; Postscript; Summary. Test yourself quiz5 Dice; One die; Two dice-backgammon; Two dice-Monopoly; Two dice-craps; Threeor more dice-totals; Fourdice-Chevalier de Méré's problem; Bettering an opponent; Fairground games; 6 Games with few choices; The dating game; An easier game; A fisherman's tale; Back to Table 6.2; A fair game?; Finding the best strategies; Other games; Two choices for Roy, many for Colin; Counter signals; Games animals play; The battle of the sexes; Postscript; Summary; Test yourself quiz; 7 Waiting, waiting, waiting; Firthdays; The Spoilers(2); Other matches; More than one match? Facks of cards (1)lacks of cards (2); Card/coupon collecting; The secretary problem; 8 Let's play best of three; Suooker-type games; Darts; Squash-type games; Anyone for tennis?; Summary; 9 TV games; Find the lady; The Showcase showdown; Who wants to be a millionaire?; Shafted; The Weakest Link; Blockbusters; Postscript; 10 Casino games; Roulette; Casino stud poker; Baccarat chemin de fer; Other casino games; Test yourself quiz; 11 Bookies, the Tote, spread betting; Bookmakers; Can you win from the bookies?; The Tote; Spread betting; 12 This sporting life; Soccer; Golf; Cricket; Tennis. Tournament formats13 Lucky for some-miscellanea; Cards-whist, bridge; Shuffling; Dividing the prize; Vowel or consonant?; Benford's law; Guess the other colour; At least two Aces?; Which player is favoured?; The birthday gift; Two paradoxes; 14 Probability for lawyers; Conditional probability; Hayes' Theorem; Two fallacies; Other matters; Test yourself quiz; Appendix I. Counting; Appendix II. Probability; Appendix III. Averages and variability; Appendix V. The Kelly strategy; Index.

Abstract:

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies inthe field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pool.

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