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Tapering talk : the impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets

Author: Barry J Eichengreen; Poonam Gupta; World Bank. Office of the Vice President, Development Economics. Operations and Strategy Unit.
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : World Bank, [2014]
Series: Policy research working papers, 6754.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : English
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This tapering talk had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. Different countries, however, were affected very differently. This paper uses data on exchange rates, foreign reserves and equity prices between April and August 2013 to analyze who was hit and why. It finds that emerging markets that  Read more...
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Details

Genre/Form: Rules
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Barry J Eichengreen; Poonam Gupta; World Bank. Office of the Vice President, Development Economics. Operations and Strategy Unit.
OCLC Number: 869235254
Notes: Title from pdf title page (World Bank Web site, viewed Jan. 27, 2014).
"The World Bank, Development Economics Vice Presidency, Operations and Strategy Unit."
"January 2014."
"In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This tapering talk had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. Different countries, however, were affected very differently. This paper uses data on exchange rates, foreign reserves and equity prices between April and August 2013 to analyze who was hit and why. It finds that emerging markets that allowed the real exchange rate to appreciate and the current account deficit to widen during the prior period of quantitative easing saw the sharpest impact. Better fundamentals (the budget deficit, the public debt, the level of reserves, or the rate of economic growth) did not provide insulation. A more important determinant of the differential impact was the size of the country's financial market: countries with larger markets experienced more pressure on the exchange rate, foreign reserves, and equity prices. This is interpreted as showing that investors are better able to rebalance their portfolios when the target country has a relatively large and liquid financial market"--Abstract.
Description: 1 online resource (27 pages) : color illustrations.
Series Title: Policy research working papers, 6754.
Responsibility: Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta.

Abstract:

In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This tapering talk had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. Different countries, however, were affected very differently. This paper uses data on exchange rates, foreign reserves and equity prices between April and August 2013 to analyze who was hit and why. It finds that emerging markets that allowed the real exchange rate to appreciate and the current account deficit to widen during the prior period of quantitative easing saw the sharpest impact. Better fundamentals (the budget deficit, the public debt, the level of reserves, or the rate of economic growth) did not provide insulation. A more important determinant of the differential impact was the size of the country's financial market: countries with larger markets experienced more pressure on the exchange rate, foreign reserves, and equity prices. This is interpreted as showing that investors are better able to rebalance their portfolios when the target country has a relatively large and liquid financial market.

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