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Tracking global demand for advanced economy sovereign debt

Author: Serkam Arslanalp; Takahiro Tsuda; International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department.
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/12/284.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Serkam Arslanalp; Takahiro Tsuda; International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department.
ISBN: 9781475521061 1475521065
OCLC Number: 820489145
Notes: Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Dec. 6, 2012).
"Monetary and Capital Markets Department."
"December 2012."
Description: 1 online resource (62 pages).
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/12/284.
Responsibility: prepared by Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda.

Abstract:

Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks' exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework--sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)--to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns' vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA). It also introduces two risk indices--investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)--to assess sovereigns' vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.

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