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Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses

Author: Vivek Ghosal; Yang Ye; International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2015.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/15/4.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S & P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Vivek Ghosal; Yang Ye; International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
OCLC Number: 900609574
Notes: "January 2015."
"Research Department."
Description: 1 online resource (49 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/15/4.
Responsibility: prepared by Vivek Ghosal and Yang Ye.

Abstract:

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S & P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively smaller businesses; the impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss implications for the framing of economic policy.--Abstract.

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