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The US as the "demander of last resort" and its implications on China's current account

Author: Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2008.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), working paper no. 14453.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the "demander of last resort:" a 1% increase in the lagged US current account deficit is associated with  Read more...
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Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 639523741
Notes: "October 2008."
Description: 21 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), working paper no. 14453.
Other Titles: U.S. as the "demander of last resort" and its implications on China's current account
Responsibility: Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak.

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the "demander of last resort:" a 1% increase in the lagged US current account deficit is associated with 0.5% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 2/3 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China's current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses.

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