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What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?

Author: Soren T Anderson; Ryan Kellogg; James M Sallee; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2011.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 16974.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Researchers estimating the demand for energy-using durable goods must specify consumers' beliefs about future energy prices. Policy-relevant inference hinges on this specification, yet there is little direct evidence on the nature of consumer beliefs. We provide such evidence by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We find that average consumer beliefs  Read more...
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Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Anderson, Soren T.
What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?.
Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2011
(DLC) 2011657191
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Soren T Anderson; Ryan Kellogg; James M Sallee; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 714584963
Description: 1 online resource (27 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 16974.
Responsibility: Soren T. Anderson, Ryan Kellogg, James M. Sallee.

Abstract:

Researchers estimating the demand for energy-using durable goods must specify consumers' beliefs about future energy prices. Policy-relevant inference hinges on this specification, yet there is little direct evidence on the nature of consumer beliefs. We provide such evidence by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We find that average consumer beliefs are indistinguishable from a no-change forecast. This finding has important implications for the literature on consumer valuation of energy efficiency, and it implies that researchers are likely justified in assuming a no-change forecast, as is common practice.

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