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Wind power forecasting error frequency analyses for operational power system studies : preprint

Author: Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Michael R Milligan; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.),
Publisher: [Golden, Colo.] : National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2012.
Series: Conference paper (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.)), 5500-56086.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : Conference publication : National government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Conference proceedings
Congresses
Material Type: Conference publication, Document, Government publication, National government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Michael R Milligan; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.),
OCLC Number: 816123670
Notes: Title from PDF title screen (viewed Nov. 6, 2012).
"August 2012."
"To be presented at the 11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference, Lisbon, Portugal, November 13-15, 2012."
Description: 1 online resource (7 pages) : illustrations (some color).
Details: Full text available via Internet in .pdf format. Adobe Acrobat Reader required.
Series Title: Conference paper (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.)), 5500-56086.
Responsibility: A. Florita, B.-M. Hodge, and M. Milligan.

Abstract:

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

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