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World food prices, the terms of trade-real exchange rate nexus, and monetary policy

Author: Luis Catão; Roberto Chang
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/13/114.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
How should monetary policy respond to large fluctuations in world food prices? We study this question in an open economy model in which imported food has a larger weight in domestic consumption than abroad and international risk sharing can be imperfect. A key novelty is that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade can move in opposite directions in response to world food price shocks. This exacerbates the  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Luis Catão; Roberto Chang
ISBN: 9781484397879 1484397878
OCLC Number: 857073776
Description: 1 online resource (63 pages :) : illustrations.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/13/114.
Responsibility: prepared by Luis A.V. Catao and Roberto Chang.

Abstract:

How should monetary policy respond to large fluctuations in world food prices? We study this question in an open economy model in which imported food has a larger weight in domestic consumption than abroad and international risk sharing can be imperfect. A key novelty is that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade can move in opposite directions in response to world food price shocks. This exacerbates the policy trade-off between stabilizing output prices vis a vis the real exchange rate, to an extent that depends on risk sharing and the price elasticity of exports. Under perfect risk sharing, targeting the headline CPI welfare-dominates targeting the PPI if the variance of food price shocks is not too small and the export price elasticity is realistically high. In such a case, however, targeting forecast CPI is a superior choice. With incomplete risk sharing, PPI targeting is clearly a winner.

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