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Jinjarak, Yothin

Overview
Works: 27 works in 103 publications in 1 language and 556 library holdings
Classifications: H11, 332.4560959
Publication Timeline
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Publications about Yothin Jinjarak
Publications by Yothin Jinjarak
Most widely held works by Yothin Jinjarak
The collection efficiency of the value added tax : theory and international evidence by Joshua Aizenman( Book )
8 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 70 libraries worldwide
"This paper evaluates the political economy and structural factors explaining the collection efficiency of the Value Added Tax [VAT]. We consider the case where the collection efficiency is determined by the probability of audit and by the penalty on underpaying. Implementation lags imply that the present policy maker determines the efficiency of the tax system next period. Theory suggests that the collection efficiency is impacted by political economy considerations greater polarization and political instability would reduce the efficiency of the tax collection. In addition, collection is impacted by structural factors affecting the ease of tax evasion, like the urbanization level, the share of agriculture, and trade openness. Defining the collection efficiency of the VAT as the ratio of the VAT revenue to aggregate consumption divided by the standard VAT rate, we evaluate the evidence on VAT collection efficiency in a panel of 44 countries over 1970-99. The results are consistent with the theory - a one standard deviation increase in durability of political regime, and in the ease and fluidity of political participation, increase the VAT collection efficiency by 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. A one standard deviation increase in urbanization, trade openness, and the share of agriculture changes the VAT collection efficiency by 12.7%, 3.9%, and - 4.8%, respectively. In addition, a one standard deviation increase in GDP/Capita increases the tax efficiency by 8.1%. Qualitatively identical results apply for an alternative measure of VAT collection efficiency, defined by the ratio of VAT revenue to GDP divided by the standard VAT"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Globalization and developing countries - a shrinking tax base? by Joshua Aizenman( file )
9 editions published between 2006 and 2007 in English and held by 67 libraries worldwide
"This paper evaluates the impact of globalization on the tax bases of countries at varying stages of development. We see globalization as a process that induces countries to embrace greater trade and financial integration. This in turn should shift their tax revenue from "easy to collect" taxes (tariffs and seigniorage) towards "hard to collect" taxes (value added and income taxes). We find that trade and financial openness have a positive association with the "hard to collect" taxes, and a negative association with the "easy to collect" taxes"--NBER web site
Current account patterns and national real estate markets by Joshua Aizenman( file )
7 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 40 libraries worldwide
This paper studies the association between the current account and real estate valuation across countries, subject to data availability [43 countries, of which 25 are OECD], during 1990-2005. We find robust and strong positive association between current account deficits and the appreciation of the real estate prices/(GDP deflator). Controlling for lagged GDP/capita growth, inflation, financial depth, institution, urban population growth and the real interest rate; a one standard deviation increase of the lagged current account deficits is associated with a real appreciation of the real estate prices by 10%. This real appreciation is magnified by financial depth, and mitigated by the quality of institutions. Intriguingly, the economic importance of current account variations in accounting for the real estate valuation exceeds that of the other variables, including the real interest rate and inflation. Among the OECD countries, we find evidence of a decline overtime in the cross country variation of the real estate/(GDP deflator), consistent with the growing globalization of national real estate markets. Weaker patterns apply to the non-OECD countries in the aftermath of the East Asian crisis
De facto fiscal space and fiscal stimulus definition and assessment by Joshua Aizenman( Computer File )
7 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 39 libraries worldwide
We define the notion of "de facto fiscal space" of a country as the inverse of the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across several years to smooth for business cycle fluctuations. We apply this concept to account for the cross-country variation in the fiscal stimulus associated with the global crisis of 2009-2010. We find that greater de facto fiscal space prior to the global crisis, higher GDP/capita, and higher financial exposure to the US, were associated with a higher fiscal stimulus/GDP during 2009-2010. Intriguingly, higher trade openness has been associated with lower fiscal stimulus
International reserves and swap lines substitutes or complements? by Joshua Aizenman( file )
6 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 38 libraries worldwide
Developing Asia experienced a sharp surge in foreign currency reserves prior to the 2008-9 crisis. The global crisis has been associated with an unprecedented rise of swap agreements between central banks of larger economies and their counterparts in smaller economies. We explore whether such swap lines can reduce the need for reserve accumulation. The evidence suggests that there is only a limited scope for swaps to substitute for reserves. The selectivity of the swap lines indicates that only countries with significant trade and financial linkages can expect access to such ad hoc arrangements, on a case by case basis. Moral hazard concerns suggest that the applicability of these arrangements will remain limited. However, deepening swap agreements and regional reserve pooling arrangements may weaken the precautionary motive for reserve accumulation
The fiscal stimulus of 2009-10 trade openness, fiscal space and exchange rate adjustment by Joshua Aizenman( file )
7 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 36 libraries worldwide
This paper studies the cross-country variation of the fiscal stimulus and the exchange rate adjustment propagated by the global crisis of 2008-9, identifying the role of economic structure in accounting for the heterogeneity of response. We find that greater de facto fiscal space prior to the global crisis and lower trade openness were associated with a higher fiscal stimulus/GDP during 2009-2010 (where the de facto fiscal space is the inverse of the average tax-years it would take to repay the public debt). Lowering the 2006 public debt/average tax base from the level of low-income countries (5.94) down to the average level of the Euro minus the Euro-area peripheral countries (1.97), was associated with a larger crisis stimulus in 2009-11 of 2.78 GDP percentage points. Joint estimation of fiscal stimuli and exchange rate depreciations indicates that higher trade openness was associated with a smaller fiscal stimulus and a higher depreciation rate during the crisis. Overall, the results are in line with the predictions of the neo-Keynesian open-economy model
Capital flows and economic growth in the era of financial integration and crisis, 1990-2010 by Joshua Aizenman( file )
7 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 36 libraries worldwide
We investigate the relationship between economic growth and lagged international capital flows, disaggregated into FDI, portfolio investment, equity investment, and short-term debt. We follow about 100 countries during 1990-2010 when emerging markets became more integrated into the international financial system. We look at the relationship both before and after the global crisis. Our study reveals a complex and mixed picture. The relationship between growth and lagged capital flows depends on the type of flows, economic structure, and global growth patterns. We find a large and robust relationship between FDI -- both inflows and outflows -- and growth. The relationship between growth and equity flows is smaller and less stable. Finally, the relationship between growth and short-term debt is nil before the crisis, and negative during the crisis
Income inequality, tax base and sovereign spreads by Joshua Aizenman( file )
9 editions published between 2011 and 2012 in English and held by 35 libraries worldwide
This paper investigates the association between greater income inequality, de-facto fiscal space, and sovereign spreads. Using data from 50 countries in 2007, 2009 and 2011, we find that higher income inequality is associated with a lower tax base, lower de-facto fiscal space, and higher sovereign spreads. The economic magnitude of these effects is large: at the margin, a one point of the Gini coefficient of inequality (in a scale of 0-100), is associated in 2011 with a lower tax base of 2 percent of the GDP, and with a higher sovereign spread of 45 basis points
What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk by Joshua Aizenman( file )
5 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 33 libraries worldwide
We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately the model predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the five countries in the South-West Eurozone Periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Dynamic panel estimates of the model suggest that fiscal space and other macroeconomic factors are statistically significant and economically important determinants of market-based sovereign risk. Although the explanatory power of fiscal space measures drop during the crisis, the TED spread, trade openness, external debt and inflation play a larger role. As expectations of market volatility jumped during the crisis, the weakly concavity of creditors' payoff probably accounts for the emergence of TED spread as a key pricing factor. However, risk-pricing of the South-West Eurozone Periphery countries is not predicted accurately by the model either in-sample or out-of-sample: unpredicted high spreads are evident during global crisis period, especially in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis swept over the periphery area. We "match" the periphery group with five middle income countries outside Europe that were closest in terms of fiscal space during the European fiscal crisis. We find that Eurozone periphery default risk is priced much higher than the "matched" countries in 2010, even allowing for differences in fundamentals. One interpretation is that the market has mispriced risk in the Eurozone periphery. An alternative interpretation is that the market is pricing not on current fundamentals but future fundamentals, expecting the periphery fiscal space to deteriorate markedly and posing a high risk of debt restructuring. Adjustment challenges of the Eurozone periphery may be perceived as economically and politically more difficult than the matched group of middle income countries because of exchange rate and monetary constraints
Fundamentals and sovereign rsk [sic] of emerging markets by Joshua Aizenman( file )
3 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
We empirically assess the relative importance of various economic fundamentals in accounting for the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging markets during 2004-2012, which encompasses the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Inflation, state fragility, external debt, and commodity terms of trade volatility were positively associated, while trade openness and more favourable fiscal balance/GDP ratio were negatively associated with sovereign CDS spreads. Yet the relative importance of economic fundamentals in the pricing of sovereign risk varies over time. The key factors are trade openness and state fragility in the pre-crisis period, external debt/GDP ratio and inflation in the crisis period, and inflation and public debt/GDP ratio in the post- crisis period. Asian countries enjoy lower sovereign spreads than Latin American countries, and this gap widened during and after the crisis. Trade openness was the biggest factor behind Asia's lower sovereign spreads before the crisis, and inflation during and after the crisis. The results imply that external factors were paramount in pricing sovereign risk prior to the crisis, but internal factors associated with the capacity to adjust to adverse shocks gained prominence during and after the crisis
Capital controls in Brazil stemming a tide with a signal? by Yothin Jinjarak( Computer File )
5 editions published between 2012 and 2013 in English and held by 29 libraries worldwide
Controls on capital inflows have been experiencing a renaissance since 2008, with several prominent emerging markets implementing them. We focus on Brazil, which instituted five changes in its capital account regime in 2008-2011. Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals (i.e., Brazil with no policy change) for each of these changes. We find no evidence that any tightening of controls was effective in reducing the magnitudes of capital inflows, but we observe some modest and short-lived success in preventing further declines in inflows when the capital controls were relaxed. We hypothesize that price-based capital controls' only perceptible effect is to be found in the content of the signal they broadcast regarding the government's larger intentions and sensibilities. Brazil's left-of-center government's willingness to remove controls was perceived as a noteworthy indication that the government was not as hostile to the international financial markets as many expected it to be
Real estate valuation, current account and credit growth patterns, before and after the 2008-9 Crisis by Joshua Aizenman( Computer File )
3 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
This paper explores the stability of the key conditioning variables accounting for the real estate valuation before and after the crisis of 2008-9, in a panel of 36 countries, for the period of 2005:I -2012:IV, recognizing the crisis break. Our paper validates the robustness of the association between real estate valuation of lagged current account patterns, both before and after the crisis. The most economically significant variable in accounting for real estate valuation changes turned out to be the lagged real estate valuation appreciation (real estate inflation minus CPI inflation), followed by changes of the current account deficit/GDP, domestic credit/GDP, and equity market valuation appreciation (equity market appreciation minus CPI inflation). The first three effects are economically substantial: a one standard deviation increase in lagged real estate appreciation is associated with a 10 % increase in the present real estate appreciation, much larger than the impact of a one standard deviation increase in the current account deficit (5%) and of the domestic credit/GDP growth (3%). Thus, the results are supportive of both current account and credit growth channels, with the animal-spirits and momentum channels playing the most important role in the boom and bust of real estate valuation
The US as the "demander of last resort" and implications on China's current account by Joshua Aizenman( file )
2 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
This paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the "demander of last resort:" a 1% increase in the lagged US current account deficit is associated with 0.5% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 2/3 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China's current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses
Adjustments of the financial and corporate sector to the changes in exchange rate volatility and their policy implications in the SEACEN countries by Dagva Boldbaatar( Book )
3 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
The US as the "Demander of Last Resort" and its Implications on China's Current Account by Joshua Aizenman( Computer File )
6 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 13 libraries worldwide
This paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the "demander of last resort:" a 1% increase in the lagged US current account deficit is associated with 0.5% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 2/3 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China's current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses
China's growth, stability, and use of international reserves by Joshua Aizenman( file )
1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 8 libraries worldwide
In the run-up to the financial crisis the world economy was characterized by large and growing current-account imbalances. Since the onset of the crisis, China and the U.S. have rebalanced. As a share of GDP, their current-account imbalances are now less than half their pre-crisis levels. For China, the reduction in its current-account surplus post-crisis suggests a structural change. Panel regressions for a sample of almost 100 countries over the thirty-year period 1983-2013 confirm that the relationship between current-account balances and economic variables such as performance, structure, wealth and the exchange rate changed in important ways after the financial crisis
Monetary integration in ASEAN+3 : a perception survey of opinion leaders by Pradumna Bickram Rana( Book )
1 edition published in 2011 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Developing countries' financial vulnerability to the euro crisis an event study of equity and bond markets by Joshua Aizenman( Computer File )
3 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Abstract: The global crisis highlights the continued vulnerability of developing countries to shocks from advanced economies. Just a few years after the global crisis, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has emerged as the single biggest threat to the global outlook. In this paper, we apply the event study methodology to gauge the scope for financial contagion from the EU to developing countries. More specifically, we estimate the responsiveness of equity and bond markets in developing countries to global crisis news and euro crisis news. Overall, we find that whereas global crisis news had a consistently negative effect on returns of equity and bond markets in developing countries, the effect of euro crisis news was more mixed and limited
Evaluating Asian Swap Arrangements by Joshua Aizenman( Computer File )
2 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Motivated by the unprecedented rise of swap agreements between the central banks of developed economies and their developing economy counterparts, this paper evaluates Asian swap arrangements and their association with the build-up of foreign reserves prior to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The evidence suggests that there is a limited scope for swaps to substitute for reserves. Furthermore, the selectivity of the swap lines indicates that only countries with significant trade and financial linkages can expect access to such ad hoc arrangements, on a case by case basis. Moral hazard concerns suggest that the applicability of these arrangements will remain limited. However, deepening swap agreements and regional reserve pooling arrangements may weaken the precautionary motive for reserve accumulation
Competition, labor intensity, and specialization : structural changes in postcrisis Asia by Yothin Jinjarak( Computer File )
1 edition published in 2011 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
 
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Alternative Names
Yothin Jinjarak
Languages
English (95)
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