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Snowberg, Erik

Overview
Works: 24 works in 126 publications in 2 languages and 488 library holdings
Roles: Author
Classifications: HB1, 330
Publication Timeline
Key
Publications about Erik Snowberg
Publications by Erik Snowberg
Most widely held works by Erik Snowberg
How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies by Erik Snowberg( file )
22 editions published between 2010 and 2011 in 3 languages and held by 45 libraries worldwide
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government to the importance of complex rules in congressional committees. However, the results of event studies are notoriously sensitive to both choices made by researchers and external events. Specifically, event studies will generally produce different results depending on three interrelated things: which event window is chosen, the prior probability assigned to an event at the beginning of the event window, and the presence or absence of other events during the event window. In this paper we show how each of these may bias the results of event studies, and how prediction markets can mitigate these biases. -- prediction markets ; event studies ; political economy
Explaining the favorite-longshot bias: is it risk-love or misperceptions? by Erik Snowberg( Computer File )
18 editions published in 2010 in English and German and held by 43 libraries worldwide
Abstract: The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds provide biased estimates of the probability of a horse winninglongshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of this phenomenon focus on rational gamblers who overbet longshots due to risk-love. The competing behavioral explanations emphasize the role of misperceptions of probabilities. We provide novel empirical tests that can discriminate between these competing theories by assessing whether the models that explain gamblers' choices in one part of their choice set (betting to win) can also rationalize decisions over a wider choice set, including compound bets in the exacta, quinella or trifecta pools. Using a new, large-scale dataset ideally suited to implement these tests we find evidence in favor of the view that misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory
Partisan impacts on the economy : evidence from prediction markets and close elections by Erik Snowberg( Book )
17 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 34 libraries worldwide
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations on November 2 and 3 in 2004, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by 2-3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican Presidents have tended to raise bond yields
Prediction markets for economic forecasting by Erik Snowberg( Book )
20 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 28 libraries worldwide
Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Party influence in Congress and the economy by Erik Snowberg( Book )
9 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the arrival of news, allowing substantially more precise estimates than a traditional event study methodology. We find that equity values, oil prices, and Treasury yields are slightly higher with Republican majorities in Congress, and that a switch in the majority party in a chamber of Congress has an impact that is only 10-30 percent of that of the Presidency. We also find evidence inconsistent with the popular view that divided government is better for equities, finding instead that equity valuations increase monotonically, albeit slightly, with the degree of Republican control
Selective trials : a principal-agent approach to randomized controlled experiments by Sylvain Chassang( Book )
13 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
We study the design of randomized controlled experiments in environments where outcomes are significantly affected by unobserved effort decisions taken by the subjects(agents). While standard randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are internally consistent, the unobservability of effort provision compromises external validity. We approach trial design as a principal-agent problem and show that natural extensions of RCTs -which we call selective trials- can help improve the external validity of experiments. In particular, selective trials can disentangle the effects of treatment, effort, and the interaction of treatment and effort. Moreover, they can help experimenters identify when measured treatment effects are affected by erroneous beliefs and inappropriate effort provision -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Overconfidence in Political Behavior by Pietro S.T Ortoleva( Book )
5 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and increased strength of partisan identification. Moreover, the model makes many nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society, and over a person's lifetime. These predictions are tested using unique data that measure the overconfidence, and standard political characteristics, of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults. Our predictions, eight in total, find strong support in this data. In particular, we document that overconfidence is a substantively and statistically important predictor of ideological extremeness and voter turnout
Essays in political economics by Erik Snowberg( Archival Material )
1 edition published in 2008 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Partisan impacts on the economy : evidence from prediction markets and close elections ( Computer File )
3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations on November 2 and 3 in 2004, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by 2-3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican Presidents have tended to raise bond yields. -- elections ; prediction markets ; political economy ; event study ; partisan effects
A multi-dimensional signaling model of campaign finance ( Computer File )
1 edition published in 2007 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
The right type of legislator a theory of taxation and representation by Andrea Mattozzi( Book )
2 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Theories of taxation conclude that legislators' ability to target redistribution to their districts' results in higher government spending and taxation. Yet, despite the fact that securing pork is an important part of a legislator's job in the U.S., but not in European countries, the U.S. has lower taxes. Our analysis adds a simple assumption to standard models to reconcile them with this fact. Our assumption - that those who are successful in the private sector will also tend to be successful in negotiating transfers for their district - allows our theory to match stylized facts about class representation in legislatures. The model can then be used to examine policies aimed at increasing descriptive representation in legislatures. We find that many of these policies have no, or negative, effects on descriptive representation, including: increasing the number of representatives, allowing parties to choose candidates, or giving parties some ability to discipline legislator's votes and screen candidates. On the other hand, two policies are found to be particularly effective for increasing descriptive representation: proportional representation and limiting competition between legislators
Experimenting with Measurement Error Techniques with Applications to the Caltech Cohort Study by Benjamin J Gillen( Book )
3 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Measurement error is ubiquitous in experimental work. It leads to imperfect statistical controls, attenuated estimated effects of elicited behaviors, and biased correlations between characteristics. We develop simple statistical techniques for dealing with experimental measurement error. These techniques are applied to data from the Caltech Cohort Study, which conducts repeated incentivized surveys of the Caltech student body. We illustrate the impact of measurement error by replicating three classic experiments, and showing that results change substantially when measurement error is taken into account. Collectively, these results show that failing to properly account for measurement error may cause a field-wide bias: it may lead scholars to identify "new" effects and phenomena that are actually similar to those previously documented
Prediction markets for economic forecasting by Erik Snowberg( file )
1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models
Prediction Markets: From Politics to Business (and Back) by Erik Snowberg( Book )
1 edition published in 2008 in Undetermined and held by 1 library worldwide
Prediction markets are the subject of a growing body of scholarly literature, and growing attention from the business community. These recent trends are often discussed without reference to the long history of these markets. Prediction markets started as simple wagers on political contests and have expanded through laboratory and field experiments. We survey this history, detailing the past and current uses of prediction markets. We conclude by examining some potential challenges that will need to be addressed as the uses of prediction markets expand
Party influence in congress and the economy by Erik Snowberg( file )
1 edition published in 2007 in Undetermined and held by 1 library worldwide
To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets that track election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the arrival of news, allowing substantially more precise estimates than a traditional event study methodology. We find that equity values, oil prices, and Treasury yields are slightly higher with Republican majorities in Congress, and that a switch in the majority party in a chamber of Congress has an impact that is only 10%-30% of that of the Presidency. We also find evidence inconsistent with the popular view that divided government is better for equities, finding instead that equity valuations increase monotonically, albeit slightly, with the degree of Republican control
Prediction markets for economic forecasting by Erik Snowberg( file )
1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models
Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections by Erik Snowberg( file )
1 edition published in 2007 in Undetermined and held by 1 library worldwide
Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields
Information (in) efficiency in prediction markets ( Computer File )
1 edition published in 2004 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
Examining Explanations of a Market Anomaly: Preferences or Perceptions? by Erik Snowberg( Book )
1 edition published in 2008 in Undetermined and held by 1 library worldwide
This paper compiles and summarizes the theoretical literature on the favorite-longshot bias, an anomaly that has been found in sports betting markets for over half a century. Explanations of this anomaly can be broken down into two broad categories, those involving preferences and those involving perceptions. We propose a novel test of these two classes of models that allows us to discriminate between them without parametric assumptions. We execute these tests on a new dataset, which is an order of magnitude larger than any used in previous studies, and conclude that the perceptions model, in which bettors overestimate the chances of small probability events, provides a better fit to the data
Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections by Erik Snowberg( file )
1 edition published in 2006 in English and held by 0 libraries worldwide
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations on November 2 and 3 in 2004, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by 2-3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican Presidents have tended to raise bond yields
 
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Alternative Names
Snowberg, Erik Christopher
Languages
English (115)
German (2)
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