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International Monetary Fund Research Department

Works: 2,018 works in 3,836 publications in 2 languages and 60,988 library holdings
Genres: Periodicals 
Roles: Editor, Other
Classifications: HG3881, 332.042
Publication Timeline
Publications about International Monetary Fund
Publications by International Monetary Fund
Most widely held works by International Monetary Fund
Exchange rate volatility and world trade : a study by International Monetary Fund( Book )
8 editions published in 1984 in English and Spanish and held by 389 libraries worldwide
Determinants and systemic consequences of international capital flows : a study by International Monetary Fund( Book )
4 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 379 libraries worldwide
This study addresses the determinants and systemic consequences of international capital flows
The Exchange rate system : lessons of the past and options for the future : a study by International Monetary Fund( Book )
6 editions published between 1984 and 1988 in English and held by 350 libraries worldwide
The last few years have witnessed a resurgence of calls for a re-examination, or perhaps even a forum, of the international monetary system. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on that subject
International capital markets : developments and prospects by D. F. I Folkerts-Landau( Book )
5 editions published between 1989 and 1991 in English and held by 348 libraries worldwide
This paper provides a description and analysis of recent developments in international capital markets and an assessment of the prospects for private financing flows. Particular attention is focused on recent trends in liberalization and innovation in international financial markets, including relevant changes in supervision, and on development in the debt situation, especially the prospects for flows to developing countries
International capital markets : recent developments and short-term prospects ( serial )
in English and held by 346 libraries worldwide
The Role of the SDR in the international monetary system : studies by Juanita Roushdy( Book )
6 editions published in 1987 in English and held by 344 libraries worldwide
In the years since the SDR was created, the international monetary system has experienced a number of profound changes. The present paper sketches the effects of these changes on perceptions of the role that the SDR can and should play in that system
Staff studies for the world economic outlook by International Monetary Fund( Book )
14 editions published between 1986 and 1995 in English and held by 335 libraries worldwide
This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the IMF and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook. For the industrial country group, the forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of the forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries
Theoretical aspects of the design of fund-supported adjustment programs : a study by International Monetary Fund( Book )
6 editions published in 1987 in English and held by 327 libraries worldwide
The purpose of this paper is to describe the analytical framework underlying the design of Fund-supported adjustment programs. While it draws heavily on previous studies, it also attempts to identify theoretical developments that have taken place in financial programming in more recent years
Issues in the assessment of the exchange rates of industrial countries : a study by International Monetary Fund( Book )
7 editions published in 1984 in English and held by 322 libraries worldwide
In this paper, the concept of sustainability is given its traditional broad meaning; that is, an exchange rate is viewed as sustainable if it can be maintained over the medium term and its "appropriate" from the standpoint of the country in question and the international community as a whole
Staff studies for the world economic outlook by International Monetary Fund( serial )
in English and held by 322 libraries worldwide
Optimal oil production and the world supply of oil by Nikolay Aleksandrov( file )
1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 286 libraries worldwide
We study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach. The numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves. Optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed. We show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable. Oil production was cut during the 2008-2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC, for countries facing a lower discount rate, as predicted by the model, and for countries whose governments' finances are less dependent on oil revenues. However, the net present value of a country's oil reserves would be increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country's threshold price. If several producers were to adopt such strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable
Interest rate policies in developing countries : a study by International Monetary Fund( Book )
5 editions published between 1983 and 1986 in English and Undetermined and held by 235 libraries worldwide
In recent years, the appropriate level and structure of interest tates have come to be seen as major issues in connection with stabilization programs undertaken by members. These issues arise from consideration both on the demand side, as interest rates affect the magnitude of aggregate demand, and on the supply side, as they influence the volume and quality of investment and, thus, the growth of output
What makes growth sustained? by Andrew Berg( file )
5 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 227 libraries worldwide
We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define "growth spells:" periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample. Growth spells tend to be shorter in African and Latin American countries than elsewhere. We find that growth duration is positively related to: the degree of equality of the income distribution; democratic institutions; export orientation (with higher propensities to export manufactures, greater openness to FDI, and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for duration); and macroeconomic stability (with even moderate instability curtailing growth duration)
The external wealth of nations mark II revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004 by Philip R Lane( file )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 226 libraries worldwide
We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for the period 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and present key features of the data at the country and the global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios, distinguishing between foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, official reserves, and external debt. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories that account for this discrepancy
An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts by Allan Timmermann( file )
5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 225 libraries worldwide
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance
Perspectives on low global interest rates by Luis Catão( file )
5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 224 libraries worldwide
This paper looks at the dramatic decline in global real interest rates in recent years from a historical perspective and examines the various factors that may account for this trend. We show that current levels of real interest rates on long-term bonds in advanced economies are not low by historical standards and that it is the real long bond rates of the early 1980s through much of the 1990s that look anomalous. We also find that current global long-term interest rates are roughly in line with what one would predict given current price-earnings (P/E) ratios and under reasonable assumptions about the equity risk premia and the expected rate of growth of earnings in advanced countries. Finally, we provide econometric evidence that global long-term interest rates are significantly affected by commodity prices, expected productivity growth, and fiscal consolidation in advanced countries
Toward a lender of first resort by Daniel Cohen( file )
5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 224 libraries worldwide
If interest rates (country spreads) rise, debt can rapidly be subject to a snowball effect, which becomes self-fulfilling with regard to the fundamentals themselves. This is a market imperfection, because we cannot be confident that the unaided market will choose the "good" over the "bad" equilibrium. We propose a policy intervention to deal with this structural weakness in the mechanisms of international capital flows. This is based on a simple taxonomy that breaks down the origin of crises into three components: confidence (spreads and currency crisis), fundamentals (real growth rate), and economic policy (primary deficit). Theory then suggests a set of circumstances in which a lender of first resort would be desirable. The policy would seek to short-circuit confidence crises, partly by using IMF support to improve ex ante incentives. Theory also illuminates the potential role of collective action clauses in reducing the risk of self-fulfilling debt crises
Money market integration by Leonardo Bartolini( file )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 224 libraries worldwide
We use transaction-level data and detailed modeling of the high-frequency behavior of federal funds and Eurodollar yield spreads to provide evidence of strong integration between the federal funds and Eurodollar markets, the two core components of the dollar money market. Our results contrast with previous evidence of segmentation of these two markets, showing them to be well integrated even at high intra-day frequency. We document several patterns in the behavior of federal funds and Eurodollar spreads, including liquidity effects from trading volume to yield spreads volatility. Our analysis supports the view that targeting federal funds rates alone is sufficient to stabilize rates in the, much larger, dollar money market as a whole
Balance of payments anti-crises by Michael Kumhof( file )
3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 223 libraries worldwide
Several emerging economies have, until recently, experienced large government surpluses and accelerating foreign exchange reserve accumulation. This has been accompanied by economic booms, exchange rate appreciations and in some cases increases in domestic inflation. We show that one way to understand these episodes is as manifestations of balance of payments anti-crises, as reflecting the perception that the government intends to discontinue its accumulation of reserves in the near future. The end-phase of such crises is characterized by nominal interest rates approaching their zero lower bound in accelerating fashion and, if the government targets CPI inflation, by fast increasing domestic inflation
Immiserizing foreign aid the roles of tariffs and nontraded goods by Stephen Tokarick( file )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 223 libraries worldwide
International trade theory has pointed out that factor accumulation could immiserize a country if it is sufficiently biased toward the export sector, or if it is biased toward an import-competing sector in the presence of tariff protection. This paper analyzes the impact of aid, in the form of an increase in the capital stock used only in the nontraded sector, on real income. Yano and Nugent (1999) discussed this issue, but their analysis turned out to be incorrect. This paper demonstrates that whether aid in the form of an increase in capital specific to the nontraded sector reduces welfare depends on how aid affects the price of the nontraded good and on whether imports and the nontraded good are substitutes or complements in demand
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Alternative Names

controlled identity International Monetary Fund

IMF. Research Department.
International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
English (118)
Spanish (1)
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