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Muellbauer, John

Works: 163 works in 485 publications in 3 languages and 2,552 library holdings
Roles: Author, Other, Contributor, Editor, Thesis advisor
Classifications: HB801, 658.834
Publication Timeline
Publications about John Muellbauer
Publications by John Muellbauer
Most widely held works by John Muellbauer
Economics and consumer behavior by Angus Deaton( Book )
60 editions published between 1980 and 2015 in 3 languages and held by 1,055 libraries worldwide
Analisi: CONSUMO. Teoria del consumo. TEORIA ECONOMICA. Microeconomia. LAVORO. In generale
The standard of living by Amartya Sen( Book )
15 editions published between 1987 and 2001 in English and Spanish and held by 589 libraries worldwide
Reconsiders the idea of "the standard of living" and reflects on the moral and political implications
Booms and busts in the UK housing market by John Muellbauer( Book )
12 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 29 libraries worldwide
Income persistence and macro-policy feedbacks in the United States by John Muellbauer( Book )
8 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 28 libraries worldwide
The housing market and regional commuting and migration choices by Gavin Cameron( Book )
4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
Estimates of personal sector wealth for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
11 editions published between 1999 and 2004 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
Asymmetries in housing and financial market institutions and EMU by Duncan Maclennan( Book )
9 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
Personal and corporate savings in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
9 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 24 libraries worldwide
Interest rate effects on output : evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
Earnings, unemployment, and housing : evidence from a panel of British regions by Gavin Cameron( Book )
8 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
Household decisions, credit markets and the macroeconomy : implications for the design of central bank models by John Muellbauer( Book )
9 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
It is widely acknowledged that the recent generation of DSGE models failed to incorporate many of the liquidity and financial accelerator mechanisms revealed in the global financial crisis that began in 2007. This paper complements the papers presented at the 2009 BIS annual conference focused on the role of banks and other financial institutions by analysing the role of household decisions and their interplay with credit conditions and asset prices in the light of empirical evidence. In DSGE models without financial frictions, asset prices are merely a proxy for income growth expectations and play no separate role. On UK aggregate consumption evidence, section 2 of the paper shows this is strongly contradicted by the data, for all possible discount rates and both for a perfect foresight and an empirical rational expectations approach to measuring income expectations. However, an Ando-Modigliani consumption function generalised to include a role for liquidity, uncertainty, time varying credit conditions, wealth and housing collateral effects, as well as income expectations, explains the data well. Section 3 reports new evidence on the striking rejection on aggregate data of the consumption Euler equation central to all DSGE models. Section 4 shows that UK micro evidence is consistent with the generalised Ando-Modigliani model. Section 5 discusses the limitations of recent DSGE models with financial frictions and housing. Section 6 discusses some business cycle implications of amplification mechanisms and non-linearities operating via households and residential construction. It reconsiders econometric methodology appropriate for designing better evidence-based central bank policy models
Credit, the stock market and oil : forecasting US GDP by John Muellbauer( Book )
6 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
We derive a comprehensive one-year ahead forecasting model of US per capita GDP for 1955-2000, collectively examining variables usually considered singly, e.g. interest rates, credit conditions, the stock market, oil prices and the yield gap, of which all, except the last, are found to matter. The credit conditions index is measured in the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Senior Loan Officers and its importance is consistent with a ‘financial accelerator’ view. The balance of payments, exchange rate and fiscal policy also play a role. We address the Lucas critique, investigating consequences of monetary policy regime shifts in 1980, and fiscal policy regime shifts at the end of the 1980’s. The model forecasts in 2001 the most severe growth reversal since 1974
The great British housing disaster and economic policy by John Muellbauer( Book )
1 edition published in 1990 in English and held by 21 libraries worldwide
House prices and credit constraints : making sense of the US experience by John V Duca( Book )
6 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 15 libraries worldwide
Most US house price models break down in the mid-2000's, due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time home-buyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions--the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first time buyers--into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits
Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
4 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
South Africa experienced substantial rises in the ratios of consumption and household debt to income from 1983, for which conventional explanations in terms of income, income expectations, interest rates and wealth prove inadequate. This paper emphasizes the role of substantial financial liberalization, which is of interest for two reasons. The first is to help understand South Africa's low saving rate, an endemic problem. The second is that unlike the UK, Scandinavia, Mexico and other countries, South Africa's financial liberalization occurred without an asset price boom, thus illuminating the direct role of financial liberalization. Previous attempts to model financial liberalization are not fully satisfactory. Our methodological innovation is to treat financial liberalization as an unobservable, proxied by a spline function, and entering both consumption and debt equations, which are jointly estimated. We also clarify the multi-faceted effects of financial liberalization on consumption. The comprehensive solved-out consumption function uses our own constructed set of personal wealth estimates at market value and income forecasts from a forecasting equation (allowing underlying macro-fundamentals to enter the model). The empirical results corroborate the theory in the paper, confirming the importance for consumer spending of extensive financial liberalization, of fluctuations in a range of asset values and asset accumulation, and of income expectations. Results suggest that households largely pierce the corporate veil. The paper also throws important light on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in South Africa
Forecasting (and explaining) US business cycles by John Muellbauer( Book )
5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
Inflation dynamics and trade openness by Janine Aron( Book )
7 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 12 libraries worldwide
Evolving openness to trade is hard to measure, despite its relevance to models of growth, inflation and exchange rates. Our innovative technique measures trade openness encompassing both observable trade policy (tariffs and surcharges) and unobservable trade policy (quotas and other nontariff barriers), capturing the latter by a smooth non-linear stochastic trend in a model for the share of manufactured imports in home demand for manufactured goods, controlling for the business cycle and exchange rate. The evidence for South Africa suggests that increased openness has significantly reduced the mean inflation rate and has reduced the exchange rate pass-through into wholesale prices
Review of monetary policy in South Africa: 1994-2004 by Janine Aron( Book )
5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
Some issues in modeling and forecasting inflation in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
10 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 10 libraries worldwide
Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the speed at which interest rates should fall, damaging growth. Our forecasting models for the new measure of producer price inflation suggest methodological lessons, and build in conflicting pressures on SA inflation from exchange rate depreciation, terms of trade shocks, collapsing oil, food and other commodity prices, and other shocks. Our US and SA forecasting models for consumer price inflation underline the methodological points, and suggest the usefulness of thinking about sectoral trends. Finally, we apply the sectoral approach to understanding the monetary policy implications of introducing a new CPI measure in SA that uses imputed rents rather than interest rates to capture housing costs
Rethinking the economics of land and housing by Josh Ryan-Collins( Book )
2 editions published in 2017 in English and held by 6 libraries worldwide
Why are house prices in many advanced economies rising faster than incomes? Why isn't land and location taught or seen as important in modern economics? What is the relationship between the financial system and land?In this accessible but provocative guide to the economics of land and housing, the authors reveal how many of the key challenges facing modern economies - including housing crises, financial instability and growing inequalities - are intimately tied to the land economy. Looking at the ways in which discussions of land have been routinely excluded from both housing policy and economic theory, the authors show that in order to tackle these increasingly pressing issues a major rethink by both politicians and economists is required
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Alternative Names
John Muellbauer britischer Ökonom
Muellbauer, J.
Muellbauer, John N.
Muellbauer, John N. J.
English (195)
Spanish (2)
Chinese (1)
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