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Muellbauer, John

Works: 156 works in 459 publications in 3 languages and 2,468 library holdings
Roles: Author, Contributor, Thesis advisor, Editor
Classifications: HB801, 658.834
Publication Timeline
Publications about John Muellbauer
Publications by John Muellbauer
Most widely held works by John Muellbauer
Economics and consumer behavior by Angus Deaton( Book )
55 editions published between 1980 and 2015 in 4 languages and held by 1,048 libraries worldwide
Analisi: CONSUMO. Teoria del consumo. TEORIA ECONOMICA. Microeconomia. LAVORO. In generale
The standard of living by Amartya Sen( Book )
13 editions published between 1987 and 2001 in English and Spanish and held by 584 libraries worldwide
Reconsiders the idea of "the standard of living" and reflects on the moral and political implications
Booms and busts in the UK housing market by John Muellbauer( Book )
12 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
Income persistence and macro-policy feedbacks in the United States by John Muellbauer( Book )
8 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 29 libraries worldwide
The housing market and regional commuting and migration choices by Gavin Cameron( Book )
4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 26 libraries worldwide
Asymmetries in housing and financial market institutions and EMU by Duncan Maclennan( Book )
9 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
Estimates of personal sector wealth for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
12 editions published between 1999 and 2004 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
In common with many emerging market countries, South Africa's government does not publish balance sheet wealth estimates on a market value basis, as produced in the U.S., U.K., Japan, and elsewhere. Yet without information on the market values of liquid and illiquid personal sector wealth, it is difficult to explain aggregate consumer spending and saving, consumers' demand for credit, and the broad money holdings of households. Behavioural equations for these variables are key components of central banks' macro-econometric models, used in forecasting and policy-making. Understanding the domestic asset value channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is especially important for inflation targeting countries. We construct the first coherent set of aggregate, personal sector wealth estimates at market value for South Africa. Our quarterly estimates derive from published data on financial flows, and various other capital market data, often at book value. Our methods rely, where relevant, on accumulating flow of funds data using appropriate benchmarks, and, where necessary, converting book to market values using appropriate asset price indices. Relating asset to income ratios for various asset classes to asset price movements and rates of return, throws light on the changing composition of personal sector wealth. Most striking are the rise in pension wealth - overtaking gross housing assets in the late 1980s; the rise in household debt; and the relative decline of liquid and housing assets, from the early and mid-1980s, respectively
Household decisions, credit markets and the macroeconomy : implications for the design of central bank models by John Muellbauer( Book )
9 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
It is widely acknowledged that the recent generation of DSGE models failed to incorporate many of the liquidity and financial accelerator mechanisms revealed in the global financial crisis that began in 2007. This paper complements the papers presented at the 2009 BIS annual conference focused on the role of banks and other financial institutions by analysing the role of household decisions and their interplay with credit conditions and asset prices in the light of empirical evidence. In DSGE models without financial frictions, asset prices are merely a proxy for income growth expectations and play no separate role. On UK aggregate consumption evidence, section 2 of the paper shows this is strongly contradicted by the data, for all possible discount rates and both for a perfect foresight and an empirical rational expectations approach to measuring income expectations. However, an Ando-Modigliani consumption function generalised to include a role for liquidity, uncertainty, time varying credit conditions, wealth and housing collateral effects, as well as income expectations, explains the data well. Section 3 reports new evidence on the striking rejection on aggregate data of the consumption Euler equation central to all DSGE models. Section 4 shows that UK micro evidence is consistent with the generalised Ando-Modigliani model. Section 5 discusses the limitations of recent DSGE models with financial frictions and housing. Section 6 discusses some business cycle implications of amplification mechanisms and non-linearities operating via households and residential construction. It reconsiders econometric methodology appropriate for designing better evidence-based central bank policy models
Personal and corporate savings in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
9 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 24 libraries worldwide
Interest rate effects on output : evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
The great British housing disaster and economic policy by John Muellbauer( Book )
1 edition published in 1990 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
Earnings, unemployment, and housing : evidence from a panel of British regions by Gavin Cameron( Book )
8 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
Credit, the stock market and oil : forecasting US GDP by John Muellbauer( Book )
7 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
We derive a comprehensive one-year ahead forecasting model of US per capita GDP for 1955-2000, collectively examining variables usually considered singly, e.g. interest rates, credit conditions, the stock market, oil prices and the yield gap, of which all, except the last, are found to matter. The credit conditions index is measured in the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Senior Loan Officers and its importance is consistent with a ‘financial accelerator’ view. The balance of payments, exchange rate and fiscal policy also play a role. We address the Lucas critique, investigating consequences of monetary policy regime shifts in 1980, and fiscal policy regime shifts at the end of the 1980’s. The model forecasts in 2001 the most severe growth reversal since 1974
Credit, housing collateral and consumption : evidence from the UK, Japan and the US by Janine Aron( Computer File )
13 editions published between 2006 and 2012 in English and held by 20 libraries worldwide
There is widespread disagreement about the role of housing wealth in explaining consumption. This paper exploits liquid and illiquid wealth time series from household balance sheet data for South Africa, previously constructed by the authors, to explain fluctuations in the ratios of consumption and household debt to income in South Africa, from 1971 to 2005. The paper emphasizes the role of substantial credit liberalization and of wealth, treating credit conditions as a latent variable with key interactions with drivers of consumption and debt. Credit conditions are proxied by a spline function entering jointly estimated consumption, debt and income expectations equations in a 'latent interactive variable equation system' (LIVES). The empirical results corroborate the theory in the paper, confirming that consumption relative to income is driven by credit liberalization, fluctuations in a range of asset values and asset accumulation, uncertainty and income expectations, inter alia. The paper confirms a collateral interpretation of housing wealth on consumption as opposed to a life-cycle interpretation. The paper also throws important light on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in South Africa
House prices and credit constraints : making sense of the US experience by John V Duca( Book )
6 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
Most US house price models break down in the mid-2000's, due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time home-buyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions--the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first time buyers--into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits
Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
4 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
South Africa experienced substantial rises in the ratios of consumption and household debt to income from 1983, for which conventional explanations in terms of income, income expectations, interest rates and wealth prove inadequate. This paper emphasizes the role of substantial financial liberalization, which is of interest for two reasons. The first is to help understand South Africa's low saving rate, an endemic problem. The second is that unlike the UK, Scandinavia, Mexico and other countries, South Africa's financial liberalization occurred without an asset price boom, thus illuminating the direct role of financial liberalization. Previous attempts to model financial liberalization are not fully satisfactory. Our methodological innovation is to treat financial liberalization as an unobservable, proxied by a spline function, and entering both consumption and debt equations, which are jointly estimated. We also clarify the multi-faceted effects of financial liberalization on consumption. The comprehensive solved-out consumption function uses our own constructed set of personal wealth estimates at market value and income forecasts from a forecasting equation (allowing underlying macro-fundamentals to enter the model). The empirical results corroborate the theory in the paper, confirming the importance for consumer spending of extensive financial liberalization, of fluctuations in a range of asset values and asset accumulation, and of income expectations. Results suggest that households largely pierce the corporate veil. The paper also throws important light on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in South Africa
Forecasting (and explaining) US business cycles by John Muellbauer( Book )
5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
Inflation dynamics and trade openness by Janine Aron( Book )
7 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 12 libraries worldwide
Evolving openness to trade is hard to measure, despite its relevance to models of growth, inflation and exchange rates. Our innovative technique measures trade openness encompassing both observable trade policy (tariffs and surcharges) and unobservable trade policy (quotas and other nontariff barriers), capturing the latter by a smooth non-linear stochastic trend in a model for the share of manufactured imports in home demand for manufactured goods, controlling for the business cycle and exchange rate. The evidence for South Africa suggests that increased openness has significantly reduced the mean inflation rate and has reduced the exchange rate pass-through into wholesale prices
Review of monetary policy in South Africa: 1994-2004 by Janine Aron( Book )
5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
Some issues in modeling and forecasting inflation in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
11 editions published between 2004 and 2009 in English and held by 10 libraries worldwide
South Africa adopted inflation targeting in 2000, targeting the consumer price index (CPI)excluding mortgage interest cost (or CPIX), for metropolitan and urban areas. Yet there is no clear technical account of the methodology of construction of CPI and CPIX by Statistics South Africa, as published by reputable government statistical agencies in other countries. This paper has two goals. First, we aim to enhance transparency by explaining the CPI methodology (as we understand it), and to encourage publication of an official technical handbook. We also raise various technical issues concerning CPI construction. Second, we produce estimates of CPIX (metropolitan areas) back to 1970, on a consistent methodology, using monthly price indices, the appropriate weights, and linking correctly when rebasing. While the CPIX (metropolitan and urban areas) measure only became relevant to monetary policy setting and wage contracts from 2000, and is published monthly only from 1997, a far longer time series is required for the forecasting and modelling exercises of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), National Treasury and others. Our measure differs in some years from that published by Statistics South Africa (published monthly only back to 1994)
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Alternative Names
Muellbauer, J.
Muellbauer, John N.
Muellbauer, John N. J.
English (201)
Spanish (3)
Chinese (1)
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