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Muellbauer, John

Works: 170 works in 432 publications in 1 language and 2,422 library holdings
Roles: Author, Thesis advisor, Editor
Classifications: HB801, 658.834
Publication Timeline
Publications about John Muellbauer
Publications by John Muellbauer
Most widely held works by John Muellbauer
Economics and consumer behavior by Angus Deaton( Book )
52 editions published between 1980 and 2009 in English and Undetermined and held by 1,046 libraries worldwide
Analisi: CONSUMO. Teoria del consumo. TEORIA ECONOMICA. Microeconomia. LAVORO. In generale
The standard of living by Amartya Sen( Book )
10 editions published between 1987 and 2001 in English and held by 547 libraries worldwide
Reconsidering the idea of the standard of living, the author suggests an interpretation in terms of the capabilities and freedoms that states of affairs do or do not allow. His argument is conceptual but it refers to a wide range of examples
Income persistence and macro-policy feedbacks in the United States by John Muellbauer( Book )
10 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
Personal and corporate savings in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
9 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 29 libraries worldwide
Booms and busts in the UK housing market by John Muellbauer( Book )
12 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 29 libraries worldwide
Asymmetries in housing and financial market institutions and EMU by Duncan Maclennan( Book )
7 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 27 libraries worldwide
Interest rate effects on output : evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 26 libraries worldwide
Credit, the stock market and oil : forecasting US GDP by John Muellbauer( Book )
6 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 24 libraries worldwide
Earnings, unemployment, and housing : evidence from a panel of British regions by Gavin Cameron( Book )
8 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
Household decisions, credit markets and the macroeconomy : implications for the design of central bank models by John Muellbauer( Book )
7 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
It is widely acknowledged that the recent generation of DSGE models failed to incorporate many of the liquidity and financial accelerator mechanisms revealed in the global financial crisis that began in 2007. This paper complements the papers presented at the 2009 BIS annual conference focused on the role of banks and other financial institutions by analysing the role of household decisions and their interplay with credit conditions and asset prices in the light of empirical evidence. In DSGE models without financial frictions, asset prices are merely a proxy for income growth expectations and play no separate role. On UK aggregate consumption evidence, section 2 of the paper shows this is strongly contradicted by the data, for all possible discount rates and both for a perfect foresight and an empirical rational expectations approach to measuring income expectations. However, an Ando-Modigliani consumption function generalised to include a role for liquidity, uncertainty, time varying credit conditions, wealth and housing collateral effects, as well as income expectations, explains the data well. Section 3 reports new evidence on the striking rejection on aggregate data of the consumption Euler equation central to all DSGE models. Section 4 shows that UK micro evidence is consistent with the generalised Ando-Modigliani model. Section 5 discusses the limitations of recent DSGE models with financial frictions and housing. Section 6 discusses some business cycle implications of amplification mechanisms and non-linearities operating via households and residential construction. It reconsiders econometric methodology appropriate for designing better evidence-based central bank policy models
The housing market and regional commuting and migration choices by Gavin Cameron( Book )
4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
The great British housing disaster and economic policy by John Muellbauer( Book )
1 edition published in 1990 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
Estimates of personal sector wealth for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
6 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 18 libraries worldwide
Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
4 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
South Africa experienced substantial rises in the ratios of consumption and household debt to income from 1983, for which conventional explanations in terms of income, income expectations, interest rates and wealth prove inadequate. This paper emphasizes the role of substantial financial liberalization, which is of interest for two reasons. The first is to help understand South Africa's low saving rate, an endemic problem. The second is that unlike the UK, Scandinavia, Mexico and other countries, South Africa's financial liberalization occurred without an asset price boom, thus illuminating the direct role of financial liberalization. Previous attempts to model financial liberalization are not fully satisfactory. Our methodological innovation is to treat financial liberalization as an unobservable, proxied by a spline function, and entering both consumption and debt equations, which are jointly estimated. We also clarify the multi-faceted effects of financial liberalization on consumption. The comprehensive solved-out consumption function uses our own constructed set of personal wealth estimates at market value and income forecasts from a forecasting equation (allowing underlying macro-fundamentals to enter the model). The empirical results corroborate the theory in the paper, confirming the importance for consumer spending of extensive financial liberalization, of fluctuations in a range of asset values and asset accumulation, and of income expectations. Results suggest that households largely pierce the corporate veil. The paper also throws important light on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in South Africa
Was there a British house price bubble? : evidence from a regional panel by Gavin Cameron( Book )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found
Forecasting (and explaining) US business cycles by John Muellbauer( Book )
5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 16 libraries worldwide
Review of monetary policy in South Africa: 1994-2004 by Janine Aron( Book )
5 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 16 libraries worldwide
Some issues in modeling and forecasting inflation in South Africa by Janine Aron( Computer File )
8 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 16 libraries worldwide
Modelling and Forecasting UK mortgage arrears and possessions by Janine Aron( Book )
7 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 15 libraries worldwide
This paper presents new models for aggregate UK data on mortgage possessions (foreclosures) and mortgage arrears (payment delinquencies). The innovations include the treatment of difficuly to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common latent variables estimated in a system of equations for arrears and possessions, for quarterly data over 1983-2009. A second innovation is the theory-justified use of an estimate of the proportion of mortgages in negative equity, based on an average debt to equity ratio, as one of the key drivers of possessions and arrears. A third is the systematic treatment of measurement bias in the months in arrears measures. Finally, the paper does not impose a proportional long-run relationship between possessions and arrears assumed in the previous UK literature. A range of economic forecast scenarios for forecasts to 2013 reveals the sensitivity of mortgage possessions and arrears to different economic conditions, highlighting potential risks faced by the UK and its mortgage lenders. A comprehensive review of data on arrears and possessions completes the paper
Housing market dynamics and regional migration in Britain by Anthony Murphy( Book )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 15 libraries worldwide
Economic conditions exert a strong influence on regional migration. On the one hand, strong labour market conditions, as exemplified by low unemployment rates and high earnings, draw migrants into regions. On the other hand, strong housing market conditions can prevent movement since expensive housing can deter migrants and commuting may often be an alternative. This can be thought of as giving rise to a migration equilibrium, where high house prices choke off migration caused by strong labour market conditions. Expected capital gains in housing and expected earnings growth however, can offset high levels of house prices, effects ignored in previous literature. Migration can also be influenced more directly by the availability of housing relative to population without this being mediated through prices. This paper presents evidence from a 28 year panel on net and gross migration for the regions of Britain that is broadly in accord with these expectations
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Alternative Names
Muellbauer, J.
Muellbauer, John N.
Muellbauer, John N. J.
English (180)
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