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Hurd, Michael D.

Overview
Works: 94 works in 334 publications in 1 language and 3,299 library holdings
Genres: Conference proceedings 
Roles: Editor
Classifications: HQ1064.U5, 305.260973
Publication Timeline
Key
Publications about Michael D Hurd
Publications by Michael D Hurd
Most widely held works by Michael D Hurd
The economic effects of aging in the United States and Japan by Michael D Hurd( file )
14 editions published between 1997 and 2007 in English and held by 1,198 libraries worldwide
Due to falling fertility rates, the aging of the baby-boom cohort, and increases in life expectancy, the percentage of the population that is elderly is expected to increase rapidly in the United States and Japan over the next two decades. These fourteen essays show that, despite differences in culture and social and government structure, population aging will have many similar macro and micro effects on the economic status and behavior of the elderly in both countries. The most obvious effects will be on social programs such as public pension systems and the provision for medical needs of the
The predictive validity of subjective probabilities of survival by Michael D Hurd( Book )
9 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 84 libraries worldwide
Although expectations (or subjective probability distributions) play a prominent role in models of decision-making under uncertainty, we have very little data on them and are instead forced to base our models on unverifiable assumptions. Macroeconomic models often assume rational expectations, and microeconomic models base estimation on observable population probabilities. An alternative to these assumptions is to query individuals directly about their subjective probabilities, and to use the responses as measures of expectations. Prior research on subjective survival probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study has shown that reported probabilities aggregate closely to life table values and covary appropriately with known risk factors. This paper uses panel data to study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. We find that respondents modify appropriately their survival probabilities based on new information. The onset of a new disease condition or the death of a parent between the waves is associated with a reduction in survival probabilities. The subjective survival probabilities also predict actual survival. Those who survived in our panel reported probabilities approximately 50 percent greater at baseline than those who died. Although more needs to be learned about properties of subjective probabilities we conclude that they show considerable promise for estimating models of decision-making under uncertainty
Mortality risk and consumption by couples by Michael D Hurd( Book )
9 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 82 libraries worldwide
This paper proposes and analyzes a life-cycle model of consumption by couples. The model is considerably more complicated than the standard model for singles because it has to account for the welfare of a surviving spouse. The determinants of consumption are the survival paths of each spouse, bequeathable wealth, the flow of annuities both before and after the death of one of the spouses, a motive for bequeathing at the death of the surviving spouse, and the parameters of the utility functions of the couple and of each spouse if widowed. The analysis shows how consumption and the rate of change of bequeathable wealth react to variations in these determinants, and it compares the consumption level of a single person to a couple. Summaries of wealth change and consumption in panel data are given which offer general support for the life-cycle model
Anticipated and actual bequests by Michael D Hurd( Book )
10 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 76 libraries worldwide
This paper uses data on anticipated bequests from two waves of the Health and Retirement Study and the Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old (AHEAD), and on actual bequests from AHEAD. Actual bequests were measured in exit interviews given by proxy respondents for 774 AHEAD respondents who died between waves 1 and 2. Because the exit interview is representative of the elderly population, the distribution of estate values is quite different from that obtained from estate records, which represent just a wealthy subset of the population. Anticipated bequests were measured by the subjective probability of leaving bequests. Between waves 1 and 2, increases in bequest probabilities were associated with increases in the subjective probability of surviving, increments in household wealth, and widowing while out-of-pocket medical expenses reduced the likelihood of a bequest. By comparing bequest probabilities with baseline wealth we were able to test a main prediction of the life-cycle model, that individuals will dissave at advanced old-age. The AHEAD respondents anticipate substantial dissaving before they die
Predictors of mortality among the elderly by Michael D Hurd( Book )
9 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 74 libraries worldwide
The objective of this paper is to find the quantitative importance of some predictors of mortality among the population aged 70 or over. The predictors are socio-economic indicators (income, wealth and education), thirteen health indicators including a history of heart attack or cancer, and subjective probabilities of survival. The estimation is based on mortality between waves 1 and 2 of the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old study. We find that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators are strong predictors of mortality and that the subjective survival probabilities predict mortality even after controlling for socio-economic indicators and the health conditions
Individual subjective survival curves by Li Gan( Book )
8 editions published between 2003 and 2005 in English and Undetermined and held by 72 libraries worldwide
Testing life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with life tables. However, survey responses suffer serious problems caused by focal responses of zero and one. This paper suggests using a Bayesian update model that accounts for the problems encountered in focal responses. We also propose models that help us to identify how much each individual deviates from life table in her subjective belief. The resulting individual subjective survival curves have considerable variations and are readily applicable in testing economic models that require individual subjective life expectancies
The effects of demographic trends on consumption, saving and government expenditures in the U.S. by Michael D Hurd( Book )
11 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 72 libraries worldwide
This paper reviews and analyzes forecasts of the Social Security trust funds, government spending, medical expenditures, and other elements of aggregate income and spending. According to these forecasts, the aging of the U.S. population will require some increases in taxes to support the retirement system. It should reduce the saving rate, and the composition of output will change. By themselves, these changes seem manageable. However, the direct effects of aging are completely dominated by the projected increases in medical expenditures. Although medical costs interact with aging, most of the increases are not related to aging. Even the moderately high forecast of medical spending will require that all increases in output between now and 2020 be devoted to the consumption of medical services, allowing no increase in any other component of consumption
Evaluation of subjective probability distributions in the HRS by Michael D Hurd( Book )
10 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 71 libraries worldwide
In the Health and Retirement Survey respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85, and the chances they would work after age 62 or 65. We analyze the responses to determine if they behave like probabilities, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the population, and if they have correlations with other variables that are similar to correlations with actual outcomes. We find that generally they do behave like probabilities and they do aggregate. Most remarkable, however, is that they covary with other variables in the same way actual outcomes vary with the variables. For example, smokers give lower probabilities of living to 75 than nonsmokers. We conclude that these measures of subjective probabilities have great potential use in models of intertemporal decision making under uncertainty
The retirement-consumption puzzle : anticipated and actual declines in spending at retirement by Michael D Hurd( Book )
9 editions published between 2003 and 2004 in English and held by 70 libraries worldwide
The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires consumption smoothing.' However, British and U.S. households apparently reduce consumption at retirement and the reduction cannot be explained by the life-cycle model. An interpretation is that retirees are surprised by the inadequacy of resources. This interpretation challenges the life-cycle model where consumers are forward looking. However, data on anticipated consumption changes at retirement and on realized consumption changes following retirement show that the reductions are fully anticipated. Apparently the decline is due to the cessation of work-related expenses and the substitution of home production for market-purchased goods and services
The effects of subjective survival on retirement and social security claiming by Michael D Hurd( Book )
8 editions published between 2002 and 2003 in English and held by 70 libraries worldwide
According to the life-cycle model, mortality risk will influence both retirement and the desire to annuitize wealth. We estimate the effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and on the claiming of Social Security benefits because delayed claiming is equivalent to the purchase of additional Social Security annuities. We find that those with very low subjective probabilities of survival retire earlier and claim earlier than those with higher subjective probabilities, but the effects are not large. The great majority of workers claim as soon as they are eligible
The relationship between job characteristics and retirement by Michael D Hurd( Book )
9 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 69 libraries worldwide
We study the influence of job characteristics on prospective retirement as measured by the probability of working past age 62 or 65. The characteristics fall into three broad classes: physical and mental requirements, job flexibility including employer accomodation to older workers, and financial aspects such as pensions and health care insurance. Using data from the Health and Retirement Survey, we find that physical and mental job requirements have a rather small influence on prospective retirement, whereas measures of job flexibility and financial aspects of the job are important determinants
Healthy, wealthy and knowing where to live : predicted trajectories of health, wealth and living arrangements among the oldest old by Florinne Olson Heisey( Book )
10 editions published between 2003 and 2005 in English and Undetermined and held by 69 libraries worldwide
Health, wealth and where one lives are important, if not the three most important material living conditions. There are many mechanisms that suggest that living arrangements and well-being derived from health and economic status are closely related. This paper investigates the joint evolution of the three conditions, using a microeconometric approach similar to what is known as vector autoregressions' (VAR) in the macroeconomics literature
Expected bequests and their distribution by Michael D Hurd( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 67 libraries worldwide
Based on a sample of actual bequests that is population-representative and on the subjective probability of bequests, we estimate the distribution of bequests that the older population will make. We find that the distribution is highly skewed, so that the typical baby-boom person will receive a very modest inheritance. This is partly due to the skewed distribution of wealth and partly due to the tendency of the wealthy to have fewer children. But it is also due to anticipated dissaving: we estimate that households in the age band 70-74 will bequeath just 39% of their wealth, consuming the rest before they die
The effect of labor market rigidities on the labor force behavior of older workers by Michael D Hurd( Book )
10 editions published between 1993 and 1996 in English and held by 66 libraries worldwide
Most older workers retire completely from full-time work with no intervening spell of part-time work. This is incompatible with a model of retirement in which tastes for work gradually shift with age toward leisure and hours may be freely chosen. A survey of institutional arrangements such as pensions and Social Security and of normal business practices resulting from fixed costs of employment and team production leads to the conclusion that most workers face rather limited choices consisting of a high-paying year-round job and low-paying part-time work. Therefore, someone approaching retirement who wants to retire gradually from a career type job will have to change jobs, losing job-related skills, and to compete for low-paying, easy entry jobs. Faced with that option most retire completely
Increases in wealth among the elderly in the early 1990's : how much is due to survey design? by Susann Rohwedder( Book )
6 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 65 libraries worldwide
"The Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) study shows a large increase in reported total wealth between 1993 and 1995. Such an increase is not found in other US household surveys around that period. This paper examines one source of this difference. We find that in AHEAD 1993 ownership rates of stocks, CDs, bonds, and checking and saving accounts were under-reported, resulting in under-measurement of wealth in 1993, and a substantial increase in wealth from 1993 to 1995. The explanation for the under-reporting is a combination of question sequence and wording in the AHEAD survey instrument"--Prelim
Models for anchoring and acquiescence bias in consumption data by Arthur van Soest( Book )
5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 60 libraries worldwide
"Item non-response in household survey data on economic variables such as income, assets or consumption is a well-known problem. Follow-up unfolding bracket questions have been used as a tool to collect partial information on respondents that do not answer an open-ended question. It is also known, however, that mistakes are made in answering such unfolding bracket questions. In this paper, we develop several limited dependent variable models to analyze two sources of mistakes, anchoring and acquiescence (or yeasaying), focusing on the first bracket question. We use the experimental module of the AHEAD 1995 data, where the sample is randomly split into respondents who get an open-ended question on the amount of total family consumption - with follow-up unfolding brackets (of the form: is consumption $X or more?) for those who answer immediately directed to unfolding brackets. In both cases, the entry point of the unfolding bracket sequence is randomized. We compare models in which the probability of a mistake depends on the deviation between the true consumption amount and the entry point amount $X and models in which it does not. We find that allowing for acquiescence bias substantially changes the conclusions on the selective nature of non-response to the open-ended question and on the distribution of consumption expenditures in the population. Once acquiescence bias is taken into account, anchoring in the first bracket question plays only a minor role"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
A test for anchoring and yea-saying in experimental consumptive data by Arthur van Soest( Book )
5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 60 libraries worldwide
"In the experimental module of the AHEAD 1995 data, the sample is randomly split into respondents who get an open-ended question on the amount of total family consumption - with follow-up unfolding brackets (of the form: is consumption $X or more?) for those who answer don't know' or refuse' - and respondents who are immediately directed to unfolding brackets. In both cases, the entry point of the unfolding bracket sequence is randomized. These data are used to develop a nonparametric test for whether people make mistakes in answering the first bracket question, allowing for any type of selection into answering the open-ended question or not. Two well-known types of mistakes are considered: anchoring and yea-saying (or acquiescence). While the literature provides ample evidence that the entry point in the first bracket question serves as an anchor for follow-up bracket questions, it is less clear whether the answers to the first bracket question are already affected by anchoring. We reject the joint hypothesis of no anchoring and no yea-saying at the entry point. Once yea-saying is taken into account"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Some answers to the retirement-consumption puzzle by Michael D Hurd( Computer File )
7 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 55 libraries worldwide
The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires "consumption smoothing." According to previous results based on partial spending and on synthetic panels, British and U.S. households apparently reduce consumption at retirement. The reduction cannot be explained by the simple one-good life-cycle model, so it has been referred to as the retirement-consumption puzzle. An interpretation is that at retirement individuals discover they have fewer economic resources than they had anticipated prior to retirement, and as a consequence reduce consumption. This interpretation challenges the life-cycle model where consumers are assumed to be forward-looking. Using panel data, we find that prior to retirement workers anticipated on average a decline of 13.3% in spending and after retirement they recollected a decline of 12.9%: widespread surprise is not the explanation for the retirement-consumption puzzle. Workers with substantial wealth both anticipated and recollected a decline. Therefore, for many workers the decline is not necessitated by the fall in income that accompanies retirement. Poor health is associated with above-average declines. At retirement time spent in activities that could substitute for market-purchased goods increases. Apparently a number of factors contribute to the decline in spending, which, for most of the population, can be accommodated in conventional models of economic behavior
Changing social security survivorship benefits and the poverty of widows by Michael D Hurd( Book )
6 editions published between 1991 and 1997 in English and held by 54 libraries worldwide
The paper considers the effect on widows' poverty of changes in Social Security survivorship benefits, by a reduction in couples' benefits so that total Social Security cost is unchanged. A twenty percent increase in survivorship benefits, for example, would reduce the 1989 poverty rate of widows aged 65 to 69 by about twenty-four percent, from 0.25 to 0.19. The poverty rate of couples would be increased by about thirty-three percent, from about 0.06 to about 0.08
Economic well-being at older ages income and consumption-based poverty measures in the HRS by Michael D Hurd( file )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 48 libraries worldwide
According to economic theory, well-being or utility depends on consumption. However, at the household level, total consumption is rarely measured because its collection requires a great deal of survey time. As a result income has been widely used to assess economic well-being and poverty rates. Yet, because households can use wealth to consume more than income, an income-based measure of well-being could yield misleading results for many households, especially at older ages. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study to find income-based poverty rates which we compare with poverty rates as measured in the Current Population Survey. We use HRS consumption data to calculate a consumption-based poverty rate and study the relationship between income-based and consumption-based poverty measures. We find that the poverty rate based on consumption is lower than the income-based poverty rate. Particularly noteworthy is the much lower rate among the oldest single persons such as widows. The explanation for the difference is the ability to consume out of wealth
 
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Alternative Names
Hurd, M.
Hurd, Michael
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English (167)
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