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Ball, Laurence M.

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Works: 87 works in 517 publications in 1 language and 3,174 library holdings
Genres: History  Rules 
Classifications: HB1, 332.152
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Publications about Laurence M Ball
Publications by Laurence M Ball
Most widely held works by Laurence M Ball
Okun's Law fit at fifty? by Laurence M Ball( file )
8 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 135 libraries worldwide
This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantially during the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of "jobless recoveries," are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship--the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate--varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labor markets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation
Policy rules for open economies by Laurence M Ball( Book )
14 editions published between 1998 and 1999 in English and held by 124 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper examines the choice of a monetary-policy rule in a simple macroeconomic model. In a closed economy, the optimal policy is a output and inflation. In an open economy, the optimal rule changes in two ways. First, the policy instrument is a Conditions Index the exchange rate. Second, on the right side of the rule, inflation is replaced by filters out the transitory effects of exchange-rate movements. The model also implies that pure inflation targeting is dangerous in an open economy, because it creates large fluctuations in exchange rates and output. Targeting long-run inflation avoids this problem and produces a close approximation to the optimal instrument rule
Expectations and the effects of monetary policy by Laurence M Ball( Book )
25 editions published between 1995 and 2001 in English and held by 119 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper examines the predictive power of shifts in monetary policy, as measured by changes in the federal funds rate, for output, inflation, and survey expectations of these variables. We find that policy shifts have larger effects on actual output than on expected output, suggesting that agents underestimate the effects of policy on aggregate demand. Our results help to explain the real effects of monetary policy, and they provide a strong rejection of the rational expectations hypothesis
Does inflation targeting matter? by Laurence M Ball( Book )
18 editions published between 2003 and 2004 in English and held by 102 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper asks whether inflation targeting improves economic performance, as measured by the behavior of inflation, output, and interest rates. We compare seven OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting in the early 1990s to thirteen that did not. After the early 90s, performance improved along many dimensions for both the targeting countries and the non-targeters. In some cases the targeters improved by more; for example, average inflation fell by a larger amount. However, these differences are explained by the facts that targeters performed worse than non-targeters before the early 90s, and there is regression to the mean. Once one controls for regression to the mean, there is no evidence that inflation targeting improves performance
Efficient rules for monetary policy by Laurence M Ball( Book )
12 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 100 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper defines an efficient rule for monetary policy as one that minimizes a weighted sum of output variance and inflation variance. It derives several results about the efficiency of alternative rules in a simple macroeconomic model. First, efficient rules can be expressed as 'Taylor rules' in which interest rates respond to output and inflation. But the coefficients in efficient Taylor rules differ from the coefficients that fit actual policy in the United States. Second, inflation targets are efficient. Indeed, the set of efficient rules is equivalent to the set of inflation-target policies with different speeds of adjustment. Finally, nominal-income targets are not merely inefficient, but disastrous: they imply that output and inflation have infinite variances
What do budget deficits do? by Laurence M Ball( Book )
13 editions published between 1995 and 1996 in English and held by 89 libraries worldwide
This paper discusses the effects of budget deficits on the economy in four steps. First, it reviews standard theory about how budget deficits influence saving, investment, the trade balance, interest rates, exchange rates, and long-term growth. Second, it offers a rough estimate of the magnitude of some of the effects. Third, it discusses how budget deficits affect economic welfare. Finally, it considers the possibility that continuing budget deficits in a country could lead to a 'hard landing' in which the demand for the country's assets suddenly collapses
Another look at long-run money demand by Laurence M Ball( Book )
11 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 89 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper investigates the long-run demand for M1 in the postwar United States. Previous studies, based on data ending in the late 1980's, are inconclusive about the parameters of postwar money demand. This paper obtains precise estimates of these parameters by extending the data through 1996. The income elasticity of money demand is approximately 0.5, and the interest semi-elasticity is approximately -0.05. These parameters are significantly smaller in absolute value than the corresponding parameters for the prewar period
A sticky-price manifesto by Laurence M Ball( Book )
14 editions published between 1993 and 1995 in English and held by 84 libraries worldwide
Macroeconomists are divided on the best way to explain short-run economic fluctuations. This paper presents the case for traditional theories based on short-run price stickiness. It discusses the fundamental basis for believing in this class of macreconomic models. It also discusses recent research on the microeconomic foundations of sticky prices
The deficit gamble by Laurence M Ball( Book )
14 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 81 libraries worldwide
Abstract: The historical behavior of interest rates and growth rates in U.S. data suggests that the government can, with a high probability, run temporary budget deficits and then roll over the resulting government debt forever. The purpose of this paper is to document this finding and to examine its implications. Using a standard overlapping-generations model of capital accumulation, we show that whenever a perpetual rollover of debt succeeds, policy can make every generation better off. This conclusion does not imply that deficits are good policy, for an attempt to roll over debt forever might fail. But the adverse effects of deficits, rather than being inevitable, occur with only a small probability
Policy rules and external shocks by Laurence M Ball( Book )
16 editions published between 2000 and 2001 in English and held by 81 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This essay discusses rules for monetary policy in open economies. If policymakers seek to stabilize output and inflation, optimal rules in open economies differ considerably from optimal rules in closed economies. In open economies, stability is best achieved by targeting long-run inflation' a measure of inflation adjusted to remove transitory effects of exchange-rate movements. Stability is also enhanced by adding an exchange-rate term to "Taylor rules" for setting interest rates. Finally, central banks must choose whether their policy instrument is an interest rate or a "monetary conditions index": an average of the interest rate and the exchange rate. The nature of shocks to the exchange rate determines which of these choices keeps output and inflation more stable
Disinflation and the NAIRU by Laurence M Ball( Book )
12 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 81 libraries worldwide
This paper asks why the NAIRU rose in most OECD countries in the 1980s. I find that a central cause was the tight monetary policy used to reduce inflation. The evidence comes from a cross-country comparison: countries with larger decreases in inflation and longer disinflationary periods have larger rises in the NAIRU. Imperfections in the labor market have little direct relation to changes in the NAIRU, but long-term unemployment benefits magnify the effects of disinflation. These results support hysteresis' theories of unemployment
Intergenerational risk sharing in the spirit of Arrow, Debreu, and Rawls, with applications to social security design by Laurence M Ball( Book )
14 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 79 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper examines the optimal allocation of risk in an overlapping-generations economy. It compares the allocation of risk the economy reaches naturally to the allocation that would be reached if generations behind a Rawlsian 'veil of ignorance' could share risk with one another through complete Arrow-Debreu contingent-claims markets. The paper then examines how the government might implement optimal intergenerational risk sharing with a social security system. One conclusion is that the system must either hold equity claims to capital or negatively index benefits to equity returns
The NAIRU in theory and practice by Laurence M Ball( Book )
16 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 78 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper discusses the NAIRU -- the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. It first considers the role of the NAIRU concept in business cycle theory, arguing that this concept is implicit in any model in which monetary policy influences both inflation and unemployment. The exact value of the NAIRU is hard to measure, however, in part because it changes over time. The paper then discusses why the NAIRU changes and, in particular, why it fell in the United States during the 1990s. The most promising hypothesis is that the decline in the NAIRU is attributable to the acceleration in productivity growth
The dynamics of high inflation by Laurence M Ball( Book )
11 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 77 libraries worldwide
This paper presents a model of a high-inflation economy. The model includes the government budget constraint and money demand equation of Cagan's 1956 model; an accelerationist Phillips curve that captures inflation inertia; and an aggregate-spending equation that accounts for the effects of the inflation tax. The paper derives the dynamic effects of fiscal policy, incomes policies, and supply shocks, and uses the results to interpret high-inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s
What determines the sacrifice ratio? by Laurence M Ball( Book )
13 editions published between 1993 and 1994 in English and held by 76 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of the "sacrifice ratio" for disinflation: the ratio of the loss in output to the fall in trend inflation. I develop a method for estimating the sacrifice ratio in individual disinflation episodes, and apply it to 65 episodes in moderate-inflation OECD countries. In this sample. the sacrifice ratio is decreasing in the speed of disinflation: cold turkey is less costly than gradualism. The ratio is also decreasing in the flexibility of wage-setting institutions. The openness of the economy has no effect on the ratio. and the effects of incomes policies and the initial level of inflation are unclear
The Fed and the new economy by Laurence M Ball( Book )
12 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 75 libraries worldwide
This paper seeks to understand the behavior of Greenspan's Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Some authors suggest that the Fed followed a simple 'Taylor rule, ' while others argue that it deviated from such a rule because it recognized that the 'New Economy' permitted an easing of policy. We find that a Taylor rule based on inflation and unemployment does break down in the late 1990s. However, the Fed's behavior appears stable once one accounts for the falling NAIRU of the period. A rule based on inflation and the deviation of unemployment from the NAIRU captures the Fed's behavior through the entire period from 1987 to 2000
Productivity growth and the Phillips Curve by Laurence M Ball( Book )
11 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 74 libraries worldwide
Abstract: We present a model in which workers' aspirations for wage increases adjust slowly to shifts in productivity growth. The model yields a Phillips curve with a new variable: the gap between productivity growth and an average of past wage growth. Empirically, this variable shows up strongly in the U.S. Phillips curve. Including it explains the otherwise puzzling shift in the unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995
Money, banking, and financial markets by Laurence M Ball( Book )
10 editions published between 2007 and 2012 in English and held by 74 libraries worldwide
Short-run money demand by Laurence M Ball( Book )
9 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 73 libraries worldwide
Abstract: The paper estimates a long-run demand function for M1, using U.S. data for 1959-1993. This paper interprets deviations from this long-run relation with Goldfeld's partial adjustment model. A key innovation is the choice of the interest rate in the money demand function. Most previous work uses a short-term market rate, but this paper uses the average return on near monies' close substitutes for M1 such as savings accounts and money market mutual funds. This approach yields a predicted path of M1 velocity that closely matches the data. The volatility of velocity after 1980 is explained by volatility in the returns on near monies
Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes by Laurence M Ball( Book )
11 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 72 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Sticky-price models with rational expectations fail to capture the inertia in U.S. inflation. Models with backward-looking expectations capture current inflation behavior, but are unlikely to fit other monetary regimes. This paper seeks to overcome these problems with a near-rational model of expectations. In the model, agents make univariate forecasts of inflation: they use information on past inflation optimally, but they ignore other variables. The paper tests sticky-price models with near-rational expectations for two periods in U.S. history, the post-1960 period of persistent inflation and the period from 1879 to 1914, when inflation was not persistent. The models fit the data for both periods; in contrast, both rational-expectations and backward-looking models fail for at least one period
 
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Alternative Names
Ball, L. 1959-
Ball, L. M.
Ball, Laurence
Ball, Laurence 1959-
Ball, Laurence M.
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English (264)
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