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Meredith, Guy

Works: 52 works in 180 publications in 2 languages and 2,455 library holdings
Genres: Conference proceedings  Drama  Television programs 
Roles: Editor
Classifications: HC462.95, 338.952
Publication Timeline
Publications about Guy Meredith
Publications by Guy Meredith
Most widely held works by Guy Meredith
Structural change in Japan macroeconomic impact and policy challenges by Bijan B Aghevli( file )
9 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 784 libraries worldwide
This volume, by Bijan B. Aghevli, Tamim Bayoumi, and Guy Meredith, is based on a seminar on structural change in Japan held in early 1997 and chaired by the IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, Stanley Fischer. Discussion of teh day-to-day management of the standard levers of fiscal and monetary policy is interlinked with consideration for the more deep-seated structural issues. By shifting and destabilizing the underlying economic relationships and creating uncertainty, structural change complicates the task of policy analysis. This volume describes how the IMF is responding to these challenges and how outside experts assess this effect
Saving behavior and the asset price "bubble"in Japan : analytical studies by International Monetary Fund( Book )
7 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 386 libraries worldwide
This volume brings together various analytical studies the IMF staff has undertaken on the Japanese economy, focusing on two areas of particular interest for both longer-term economic performance and recent cyclical developments. The first is Japan's saving behavior, the second is the remarkable swing in asset prices that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s
MULTIMOD Mark II : a revised and extended model by Paul R Masson( Book )
11 editions published in 1990 in English and German and held by 346 libraries worldwide
MULTIMOD (MULTI-region econometric MODel) was designed to analyze the effects of industrial countries policies on major macroeconomic variables, both in the developed and developing worlds. The focus of the model is on the transmission of policy effects, and in this respect it accords well with the Fund's surveillance over the policies of major countries
Debt dynamics and global imbalances some conventional views reconsidered by Guy Meredith( file )
9 editions published in 2007 in English and Undetermined and held by 217 libraries worldwide
We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade deficit and exchange rate are smaller and more gradual than suggested by partial-equilibrium analyses. An important factor reducing the size of the adjustments is a simulated real interest rate on U.S. external liabilities that is below both the interest rate on external assets and the U.S. real economic growth rate. In addition, the adjustment takes place over an extended period without significantly raising the share of U.S. assets in foreign portfolios, in part because depreciation of the dollar requires continued foreign accumulation of U.S. assets just to keep their portfolio share constant
Long-horizon uncovered interest rate parity by Guy Meredith( Book )
11 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 99 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements, although there is little consensus on why it fails. In contrast to previous studies, which have used relatively short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the G-7 countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP -- all the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to the zero coefficient implied by the random walk hypothesis. We then use a small macroeconomic model to explain the differences between the short- and long-horizon results. Regressions run on data generated by stochastic simulations replicate the important regularities in the actual data, including the sharp differences between short- and long-horizon parameters. In the short run from risk premium shocks in the face of endogenous monetary policy. In the long run, in contrast, exchange rate movements are driven by the "fundamentals," leading to a relationship between interest rates and exchange rates that is more consistent with UIP
The Ruth Rendell mysteries ( visu )
1 edition published in 2007 in English and held by 93 libraries worldwide
Bribery & Corruption: Nicholas has always had a schoolboy crush on Emma, the free-spirited wife of the shipyard owner who employed his father. But after her murder, he learns that Emma's life was far more complicated than he had originally suspected
Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons during the post-Bretton Woods era by Menzie David Chinn( file )
8 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
"The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the U.S., Germany, Japan and Canada. The results of these long-horizon regressions are much more positive--the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and most are closer to the predicted value of unity than to zero. These results are robust to the use of different data frequencies, sample periods, yield definitions, and base currencies. We appeal to an econometric interpretation of the results, which focuses on the presence of simultaneity in a cointegration framework"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
How has NAFTA affected the Mexican economy? : review and evidence by M. Ayhan Kose( Book )
8 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 33 libraries worldwide
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of NAFTA on growth and business cycles in Mexico. The effect of the agreement in spurring a dramatic increase in trade and financial flows between Mexico and its NAFTA partners, and its impact on Mexican economic growth and business cycle dynamics, are documented with reference both to stylized facts and recent empirical research. The paper concludes by drawing lessons from Mexico's NAFTA experience for policymakers in developing countries. The foremost of these is that in an increasingly globalized trading system, bilateral and regional free trade arrangements should be used to accelerate, rather than postpone, needed structural reform
REPMOD : a smaller sibling for MULTIMOD by Guy Meredith( Book )
8 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
Medium-term exchange rate forecasting : what can we expect? by Guy Meredith( Book )
7 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability
Why has the euro been so weak? by Guy Meredith( Book )
6 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 29 libraries worldwide
The forward premium puzzle revisited by Guy Meredith( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 28 libraries worldwide
The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising from risk premia or expectations errors. This paper extends McCallum (1994) to show how such a correlation can arise from the response of monetary policy to output and inflation, which are in turn affected by the exchange rate. The theoretical models considered all generate results that are consistent with the forward premium being a biased predictor of short-term exchange rate movements; the bias decreases, however, as the horizon of the exchange rate change lengthens. Another common feature of the models is that the true reduced-form equation for exchange rate changes contains variables other than the interest differential, providing a justification for "eclectic" relationships for forecasting exchange rates. The results, however, remain consistent with using uncovered interest parity as a building block for structural models
Revisiting Japan's external adjustment since 1985 by Guy Meredith( Book )
7 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 27 libraries worldwide
The factors that explain Japan's external performance since the mid-1980s are controversial. While the current account surplus eventually declined following exchange rate changes in 1985-86, a widening since 1990 has led to renewed scepticism about the role of relative price movements in bringing about external adjustment. This paper revisits the post-1985 experience to determine whether it can be explained by traditional factors. The results indicate that, over the period as a whole, the behavior of trade volumes and prices was similar to the predicted by traditional relationships
Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons by Menzie David Chinn( Book )
6 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 27 libraries worldwide
Asymmetric effects of economic activity on inflation : evidence and policy implications by Douglas Laxton( Book )
6 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 27 libraries worldwide
Models of inflation and the costs of disinflation by Bankim Chadha( Book )
4 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 24 libraries worldwide
This paper focuses on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated, first analytically in a simple theoretical model, then by simulation of a global, multi-region empirical model. The credibility of a preannounced path for money consistent with the lowest output losses is considered. An alternative, more credible poicy may be to announce an exchange rate peg to a low inflation currency
A case of coincidence ( visu )
2 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 20 libraries worldwide
The discovery of Sarah Quinn's body in a remote Fenland district is the fifth in a series of serial killings baffling Inspector Masters and Chief Inspector Moore in the autumn of 1954. Some say the fact that Sarah's husband is an eminent brain surgeon and Sarah is subsequently well-to-do has spurred the police on to some positive action. Master and Moore would both deny this although as a result of Sarah's death they do have two clocks ticking against them. When will he kill again and will the Home Office decide to bring in Scotland Yard?
Economic implications of German unification for the Federal Republic and the rest of the world by Paul R Masson( Book )
5 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
The economic effects of German unification are first discussed in the context of global saving/invetment model. Next, simulations of MULTIMOD are presented, suggesting for the FRG an initial increase in long-term real interest rates equal to 3/4 of a percentage point, increased output, a temporary half-point rise in inflation, a modest real appreciation of the deutsche mark, and a reduction of the (combined GDR and FRG) current account surplus equal to 2 percent of GNP. Effects on the rest of the world seem to be relatively small. Different policies are examined within the EMS, and other simulation studies are surveyed
Discretionary monetary policy versus rules : the Japanese experience during 1986-91 by Guy Meredith( Book )
4 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
This paper compares the hypothetical performance of various monetary policy rules with that of the discretionary policies actually pursued in Japan over the 1986-91 period. The results suggest that simple rules based on targeting growth in either the money supply, nominal income, or prices would have failed to stabilize economic variables more successfully than discretionary policies. At the same time, it appears that an indicator of monetary conditions incorporating movements in the real exchange rate and the real interest rate would have been useful in assessing the effect of current policies on future activity
Japan, selected issues ( Book )
2 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 16 libraries worldwide
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Alternative Names
Meredith, Guy M.
English (127)
German (1)
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