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Meredith, Guy

Publication Timeline
Publications about Guy Meredith
Publications by Guy Meredith
Most widely held works by Guy Meredith
Saving behavior and the asset price "bubble"in Japan : analytical studies by International Monetary Fund( Book )
10 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 391 libraries worldwide
This volume brings together various analytical studies the IMF staff has undertaken on the Japanese economy, focusing on two areas of particular interest for both longer-term economic performance and recent cyclical developments. The first is Japan's saving behavior, the second is the remarkable swing in asset prices that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s
MULTIMOD Mark II : a revised and extended model by Paul R Masson( Book )
13 editions published in 1990 in English and German and held by 348 libraries worldwide
MULTIMOD (MULTI-region econometric MODel) was designed to analyze the effects of industrial countries policies on major macroeconomic variables, both in the developed and developing worlds. The focus of the model is on the transmission of policy effects, and in this respect it accords well with the Fund's surveillance over the policies of major countries
Structural change in Japan : macroeconomic impact and policy challenges by Bijan B Aghevli( Book )
10 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 151 libraries worldwide
This volume is based on a seminar on structural change in Japan held in early 1997 and chaired by the IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, Stanley Fischer. The seminar provided a forum for the IMF staff to discuss their views on the Japanese economy with a distinguished list of outside experts. Discussion of the day-to-day management of the standard levers of fiscal and monetary policy is interlinked with consideration for the more deep-seated structural issues
The Ruth Rendell mysteries by Ruth Rendell( visu )
2 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 97 libraries worldwide
Vanity dies hard: In the town of Salstead, the lives of two friends seem to take different trajectories. Wealthy, aging Alice Fielding finally finds happiness with a much-younger husband, while widowed Nesta Drage plunges near poverty when her business fails. After Nesta mysteriously disappears, Alice vows to find her--and discovers a tangled web of secrets among those she trusted most
Long-horizon uncovered interest rate parity by Guy Meredith( Book )
12 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 82 libraries worldwide
Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements, although there is little consensus on why it fails. In contrast to previous studies, which have used relatively short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the G-7 countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP -- all the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to the zero coefficient implied by the random walk hypothesis. We then use a small macroeconomic model to explain the differences between the short- and long-horizon results. Regressions run on data generated by stochastic simulations replicate the important regularities in the actual data, including the sharp differences between short- and long-horizon parameters. In the short run from risk premium shocks in the face of endogenous monetary policy. In the long run, in contrast, exchange rate movements are driven by the "fundamentals, " leading to a relationship between interest rates and exchange rates that is more consistent with UIP
Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons during the post-Bretton Woods era by Menzie David Chinn( Book )
10 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 40 libraries worldwide
"The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the U.S., Germany, Japan and Canada. The results of these long-horizon regressions are much more positive--the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and most are closer to the predicted value of unity than to zero. These results are robust to the use of different data frequencies, sample periods, yield definitions, and base currencies. We appeal to an econometric interpretation of the results, which focuses on the presence of simultaneity in a cointegration framework"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
REPMOD : a smaller sibling for MULTIMOD by Guy Meredith( Book )
9 editions published in 1999 in English and Undetermined and held by 26 libraries worldwide
Medium-term exchange rate forecasting : what can we expect? by Guy Meredith( Book )
6 editions published in 2003 in English and Undetermined and held by 24 libraries worldwide
The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability
Why has the euro been so weak? by Guy Meredith( Book )
6 editions published in 2001 in English and Undetermined and held by 24 libraries worldwide
Revisiting Japan's external adjustment since 1985 by Guy Meredith( Book )
8 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
The factors that explain Japan's external performance since the mid-1980s are controversial. While the current account surplus eventually declined following exchange rate changes in 1985-86, a widening since 1990 has led to renewed scepticism about the role of relative price movements in bringing about external adjustment. This paper revisits the post-1985 experience to determine whether it can be explained by traditional factors. The results indicate that, over the period as a whole, the behavior of trade volumes and prices was similar to the predicted by traditional relationships
Models of inflation and the costs of disinflation by Bankim Chadha( Book )
5 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
This paper focuses on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated, first analytically in a simple theoretical model, then by simulation of a global, multi-region empirical model. The credibility of a preannounced path for money consistent with the lowest output losses is considered. An alternative, more credible poicy may be to announce an exchange rate peg to a low inflation currency
Asymmetric effects of economic activity on inflation : evidence and policy implications by Douglas Laxton( Book )
6 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
How has NAFTA affected the Mexican economy? : review and evidence by M. Ayhan Kose( Book )
8 editions published in 2004 in English and Undetermined and held by 20 libraries worldwide
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of NAFTA on growth and business cycles in Mexico. The effect of the agreement in spurring a dramatic increase in trade and financial flows between Mexico and its NAFTA partners, and its impact on Mexican economic growth and business cycle dynamics, are documented with reference both to stylized facts and recent empirical research. The paper concludes by drawing lessons from Mexico's NAFTA experience for policymakers in developing countries. The foremost of these is that in an increasingly globalized trading system, bilateral and regional free trade arrangements should be used to accelerate, rather than postpone, needed structural reform
Economic implications of German unification for the Federal Republic and the rest of the world by Paul R Masson( Book )
6 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
The economic effects of German unification are first discussed in the context of global saving/invetment model. Next, simulations of MULTIMOD are presented, suggesting for the FRG an initial increase in long-term real interest rates equal to 3/4 of a percentage point, increased output, a temporary half-point rise in inflation, a modest real appreciation of the deutsche mark, and a reduction of the (combined GDR and FRG) current account surplus equal to 2 percent of GNP. Effects on the rest of the world seem to be relatively small. Different policies are examined within the EMS, and other simulation studies are surveyed
Debt dynamics and global imbalances : some conventional views reconsidered by Guy Meredith( Book )
11 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 16 libraries worldwide
We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade deficit and exchange rate are smaller and more gradual than suggested by partial-equilibrium analyses. An important factor reducing the size of the adjustments is a simulated real interest rate on U.S. external liabilities that is below both the interest rate on external assets and the U.S. real economic growth rate. In addition, the adjustment takes place over an extended period without significantly raising the share of U.S. assets in foreign portfolios, in part because depreciation of the dollar requires continued foreign accumulation of U.S. assets just to keep their portfolio share constant
The trade sector in INTERMOD by Canada( Book )
4 editions published in 1988 in English and held by 16 libraries worldwide
This paper describes the trade sector in INTERMOD, a linked international economic model that follows the structure of a policy simulation model (MULTIMOD) developed at the International Monetary Fund. Aggregation assumptions in the model permit the complete set of bilateral trade flows for each country to be consolidated into a single manufactured export & import. Trade in crude petroleum and commodity imports from developing countries are treated separately. Estimation results are presented for export prices, export volumes, and import volumes, and simulations are described which estimate responses of the trade sector to specific economic shocks
Discretionary monetary policy versus rules : the Japanese experience during 1986-91 by Guy Meredith( Book )
5 editions published in 1992 in English and Undetermined and held by 16 libraries worldwide
This paper compares the hypothetical performance of various monetary policy rules with that of the discretionary policies actually pursued in Japan over the 1986-91 period. The results suggest that simple rules based on targeting growth in either the money supply, nominal income, or prices would have failed to stabilize economic variables more successfully than discretionary policies. At the same time, it appears that an indicator of monetary conditions incorporating movements in the real exchange rate and the real interest rate would have been useful in assessing the effect of current policies on future activity
Mexico : selected issues by Steven Phillips( Book )
3 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Stabilization and reform in Latin America : a macroeconomic perspective on the experience since the early 1990s by Reva Krieger( Book )
5 editions published in 2005 in English and Spanish and held by 4 libraries worldwide
This study examines external and domestic influences on Latin America's economic performance over the past decade and a half. It notes that over the past few years, macroeconomic policies have strengthened and structural reforms have been implemented. Together with a favorable external environment, these policies have contributed to Latin America's relatively sharp economic recovery from its last recession. The study discusses the priorities for the region's reform agenda that could help to ensure that this growing prosperity becomes entrenched. It also makes observations on the future roles of the major policymakers involved--the governments in the region; the international financial institutions, and especially the IMF; and industrial country governments
Antigua and Barbuda : statistical appendix by International Monetary Fund( Book )
3 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Antigua and Barbuda: Statistical Appendix
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English (134)
Spanish (2)
German (1)
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