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Meredith, Guy

Works: 17 works in 114 publications in 2 languages and 2,208 library holdings
Genres: Conference proceedings 
Roles: Editor, Author
Classifications: HC462.95, 338.952
Publication Timeline
Publications about Guy Meredith
Publications by Guy Meredith
Most widely held works by Guy Meredith
Structural change in Japan macroeconomic impact and policy challenges by Bijan B Aghevli( file )
8 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 804 libraries worldwide
This volume, by Bijan B. Aghevli, Tamim Bayoumi, and Guy Meredith, is based on a seminar on structural change in Japan held in early 1997 and chaired by the IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, Stanley Fischer. Discussion of teh day-to-day management of the standard levers of fiscal and monetary policy is interlinked with consideration for the more deep-seated structural issues. By shifting and destabilizing the underlying economic relationships and creating uncertainty, structural change complicates the task of policy analysis. This volume describes how the IMF is responding to these challenges and how outside experts assess this effect
Saving behavior and the asset price "bubble"in Japan : analytical studies by International Monetary Fund( Book )
7 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 380 libraries worldwide
This volume brings together various analytical studies the IMF staff has undertaken on the Japanese economy, focusing on two areas of particular interest for both longer-term economic performance and recent cyclical developments. The first is Japan's saving behavior, the second is the remarkable swing in asset prices that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s
MULTIMOD Mark II : a revised and extended model by Paul R Masson( Book )
10 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 347 libraries worldwide
MULTIMOD (MULTI-region econometric MODel) was designed to analyze the effects of industrial countries policies on major macroeconomic variables, both in the developed and developing worlds. The focus of the model is on the transmission of policy effects, and in this respect it accords well with the Fund's surveillance over the policies of major countries
Debt dynamics and global imbalances some conventional views reconsidered by Guy Meredith( file )
10 editions published in 2007 in English and Undetermined and held by 255 libraries worldwide
We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade deficit and exchange rate are smaller and more gradual than suggested by partial-equilibrium analyses. An important factor reducing the size of the adjustments is a simulated real interest rate on U.S. external liabilities that is below both the interest rate on external assets and the U.S. real economic growth rate. In addition, the adjustment takes place over an extended period without significantly raising the share of U.S. assets in foreign portfolios, in part because depreciation of the dollar requires continued foreign accumulation of U.S. assets just to keep their portfolio share constant
Long-horizon uncovered interest rate parity by Guy Meredith( Book )
11 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 99 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements, although there is little consensus on why it fails. In contrast to previous studies, which have used relatively short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the G-7 countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP -- all the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to the zero coefficient implied by the random walk hypothesis. We then use a small macroeconomic model to explain the differences between the short- and long-horizon results. Regressions run on data generated by stochastic simulations replicate the important regularities in the actual data, including the sharp differences between short- and long-horizon parameters. In the short run from risk premium shocks in the face of endogenous monetary policy. In the long run, in contrast, exchange rate movements are driven by the "fundamentals," leading to a relationship between interest rates and exchange rates that is more consistent with UIP
Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons during the post-Bretton Woods era by Menzie David Chinn( file )
12 editions published between 2000 and 2005 in English and held by 82 libraries worldwide
"The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the U.S., Germany, Japan and Canada. The results of these long-horizon regressions are much more positive--the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and most are closer to the predicted value of unity than to zero. These results are robust to the use of different data frequencies, sample periods, yield definitions, and base currencies. We appeal to an econometric interpretation of the results, which focuses on the presence of simultaneity in a cointegration framework"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
How has NAFTA affected the Mexican economy? : review and evidence by M. Ayhan Kose( Book )
6 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of NAFTA on growth and business cycles in Mexico. The effect of the agreement in spurring a dramatic increase in trade and financial flows between Mexico and its NAFTA partners, and its impact on Mexican economic growth and business cycle dynamics, are documented with reference both to stylized facts and recent empirical research. The paper concludes by drawing lessons from Mexico's NAFTA experience for policymakers in developing countries. The foremost of these is that in an increasingly globalized trading system, bilateral and regional free trade arrangements should be used to accelerate, rather than postpone, needed structural reform
REPMOD : a smaller sibling for MULTIMOD by Guy Meredith( Book )
8 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
Medium-term exchange rate forecasting : what can we expect? by Guy Meredith( Book )
6 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 29 libraries worldwide
The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability
Revisiting Japan's external adjustment since 1985 by Guy Meredith( Book )
7 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 28 libraries worldwide
The factors that explain Japan's external performance since the mid-1980s are controversial. While the current account surplus eventually declined following exchange rate changes in 1985-86, a widening since 1990 has led to renewed scepticism about the role of relative price movements in bringing about external adjustment. This paper revisits the post-1985 experience to determine whether it can be explained by traditional factors. The results indicate that, over the period as a whole, the behavior of trade volumes and prices was similar to the predicted by traditional relationships
The forward premium puzzle revisited by Guy Meredith( Book )
7 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 27 libraries worldwide
The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising from risk premia or expectations errors. This paper extends McCallum (1994) to show how such a correlation can arise from the response of monetary policy to output and inflation, which are in turn affected by the exchange rate. The theoretical models considered all generate results that are consistent with the forward premium being a biased predictor of short-term exchange rate movements; the bias decreases, however, as the horizon of the exchange rate change lengthens. Another common feature of the models is that the true reduced-form equation for exchange rate changes contains variables other than the interest differential, providing a justification for "eclectic" relationships for forecasting exchange rates. The results, however, remain consistent with using uncovered interest parity as a building block for structural models
Asymmetric effects of economic activity on inflation : evidence and policy implications by Douglas Laxton( Book )
6 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 27 libraries worldwide
Why has the euro been so weak? by Guy Meredith( Book )
5 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 25 libraries worldwide
Discretionary monetary policy versus rules : the Japanese experience during 1986-91 by Guy Meredith( Book )
4 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 21 libraries worldwide
This paper compares the hypothetical performance of various monetary policy rules with that of the discretionary policies actually pursued in Japan over the 1986-91 period. The results suggest that simple rules based on targeting growth in either the money supply, nominal income, or prices would have failed to stabilize economic variables more successfully than discretionary policies. At the same time, it appears that an indicator of monetary conditions incorporating movements in the real exchange rate and the real interest rate would have been useful in assessing the effect of current policies on future activity
Economic implications of German unification for the Federal Republic and the rest of the world by Paul R Masson( Book )
5 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 20 libraries worldwide
The economic effects of German unification are first discussed in the context of global saving/invetment model. Next, simulations of MULTIMOD are presented, suggesting for the FRG an initial increase in long-term real interest rates equal to 3/4 of a percentage point, increased output, a temporary half-point rise in inflation, a modest real appreciation of the deutsche mark, and a reduction of the (combined GDR and FRG) current account surplus equal to 2 percent of GNP. Effects on the rest of the world seem to be relatively small. Different policies are examined within the EMS, and other simulation studies are surveyed
Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation Evidence and Policy Implications /cLaxton, Douglas by Douglas Laxton( file )
1 edition published in 1994 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend
Estabilización y reforma en América Latina Perspectiva macroeconómica desde principios de los años noventa by Agnes Belaisch( file )
1 edition published in 2005 in Spanish and held by 1 library worldwide
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