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Spiegel, Mark

Works: 140 works in 425 publications in 1 language and 1,817 library holdings
Genres: Case studies 
Roles: Author, Editor
Classifications: HB3722, 332
Publication Timeline
Publications about Mark Spiegel
Publications by Mark Spiegel
Most widely held works by Mark Spiegel
Financial crises in emerging markets by Reuven Glick( Book )
17 editions published between 2001 and 2010 in English and Undetermined and held by 317 libraries worldwide
North-South customs unions and international capital mobility by Eduardo Fernandez-Arias( Book )
15 editions published between 1996 and 1999 in English and Undetermined and held by 78 libraries worldwide
February 1996 North-South trade accords can serve as credibility-enhancing mechanisms for the treatment of foreign investment, inducing additional inflows of foreign capital. The presence of sovereign risk changes the tradeoffs between trade creation and diversion, enhancing the potential for welfare-increasing, trade-diverting North-South regional trade accords. North-South integration involves different issues than did previous trade accords, but a nation still does best by the integration that yields the greatest gains from trade. The primary distinction in a North-South trade accord is likely to be that the Southern nation experiences more capital scarcity than its Northern trade partner. So the trade accord's impact on the Southern trading partner's ability to attract capital may have welfare implications for both nations. Fernandez-Arias and Spiegel extend the traditional analysis of customs unions to allow for international capital movements. Their results indicate that trade accords may affect the ability of Southern nations to attract capital and may divert capital between Southern nations. Moreover, the welfare implications of North-South trade accords may differ from those that predict the North American Free Trade Agreement's (NAFTA) minor third-country effects, holding factor endowments constant. The key implications of North-South trade accords such as NAFTA are generally perceived to involve their impact on investment flows. Fernandez-Arias and Spiegel try to understand the channels through which trade accords can affect North-South investment flows. A potential link between trade accords and investment flows may be how the accords affect the ability of the Southern partner government to make commitments about the treatment of foreign investment. They show that these accords can affect both the magnitude and pattern of inward foreign investment and production, implying the possibility that both trade and financial diversion can stem from a bilateral regional trade accord. Novel effects that emerge under sovereign risk must be addressed when assessing the welfare implications of trade accords. The greatest gains from integration are still achieved when integration takes place between the countries with the greatest potential gains from trade. But Fernandez-Arias and Spiegel make a distinction: these gains now include both current trade and inter-temporal trade through foreign investment. This paper -- a product of the International Finance Division, International Economics Department -- is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze foreign investment in emerging markets
Economic impact of ethanol production on Illinois State economy by Vaman Rao( Book )
3 editions published between 1986 and 1987 in English and held by 57 libraries worldwide
A gravity model of sovereign lending : trade, default and credit by Andrew Rose( Book )
11 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 51 libraries worldwide
Abstract: One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. We develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea
Institutional effiency, monitoring costs, and the investment share of FDI by Joshua Aizenman( Book )
14 editions published between 2002 and 2004 in English and held by 44 libraries worldwide
This paper models and tests the implications of costly enforcement of property rights on the pattern of foreign direct investment (FDI). We posit that domestic agents have a comparative advantage over foreign agents in overcoming some of the obstacles associated with corruption and weak institutions. We model these circumstances in a principal-agent framework with costly ex-post monitoring and enforcement of an ex-ante labor contract. Ex-post monitoring and enforcement costs are assumed to be lower for domestic entrepreneurs than for foreign ones, but foreign producers enjoy a countervailing productivity advantage. Under these asymmetries, multinationals pay higher wages than domestic producers, in line with the insight of efficiency wages and with the evidence about the multinationals wage premium.' FDI is also more sensitive to increases in enforcement costs. We then test this prediction for a cross section of developing countries. We use Mauro's (2001) index of economic corruption as an indicator of the strength of property right enforcement within a given country. We compare corruption levels for a large cross section of countries in 1989 to subsequent FDI flows from 1990 to 1999. We find that corruption is negatively associated with the ratio of subsequent foreign direct investment flows to both gross fixed capital formation and to private investment. This finding is true for both simple cross-sections and for cross-sections weighted by country size
Offshore financial centers : parasites or symbionts? by Andrew Rose( Book )
16 editions published between 2004 and 2006 in English and held by 40 libraries worldwide
This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behavior in source countries. Nevertheless, OFCs may also have unintended positive consequences for their neighbors, since they act as a competitive fringe for the domestic banking sector. We derive and simulate a model of a home country monopoly bank facing a representative competitive OFC which offers tax advantages attained by moving assets offshore at a cost that is increasing in distance between the OFC and the source. Our model predicts that proximity to an OFC is likely to have pro-competitive implications for the domestic banking sector, although the overall effect on welfare is ambiguous. We test and confirm the predictions empirically. OFC proximity is associated with a more competitive domestic banking system and greater overall financial depth
Debt write-downs and debt-equity swaps in a two sector model by Linda S Goldberg( Book )
8 editions published in 1989 in English and held by 32 libraries worldwide
Abstract: "Debt overhang" models have motivated the possibility of Pareto-improving
The disposition of failed Japanese bank assets : lessons from the U.S. Savings and Loan crisis by Mark Spiegel( Book )
5 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 26 libraries worldwide
Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis : early warning by Andrew Rose( Book )
13 editions published between 2009 and 2010 in English and Undetermined and held by 25 libraries worldwide
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 107 countries; we focus on national causes and consequences of the crisis, ignoring cross-country "contagion" effects. Our model of the incidence of the crisis combines 2008 changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages between these manifestations of the crisis and a number of its possible causes from 2006 and earlier. We include over sixty potential causes of the crisis, covering such categories as: financial system policies and conditions; asset price appreciation in real estate and equity markets; international imbalances and foreign reserve adequacy; macroeconomic policies; and institutional and geographic features. Despite the fact that we use a wide number of possible causes in a flexible statistical framework, we are unable to link most of the commonly-cited causes of the crisis to its incidence across countries. This negative finding in the cross-section makes us skeptical of the accuracy of "early warning" systems of potential crises, which must also predict their timing
A gravity model of international lending : trade, default and credit by Andrew Rose( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
Are buybacks back? : menu-driven debt-reduction schemes with heterogeneous creditors by Ishac Diwan( Book )
5 editions published in 1991 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis : international linkages and American exposure by Andrew Rose( Book )
14 editions published between 2009 and 2010 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85 countries; we focus on international linkages that may have allowed the crisis to spread across countries. Our model of the cross-country incidence of the crisis combines 2008 changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages between these manifestations of the crisis and a number of its possible causes from 2006 and earlier. The causes we consider are both national (such as equity market run-ups that preceded the crisis) and, critically, international financial and real linkages between countries and the epicenter of the crisis. We consider the United States to be the most natural origin of the 2008 crisis, though we also consider six alternative sources of the crisis. A country holding American securities that deteriorate in value is exposed to an American crisis through a financial channel. Similarly, a country which exports to the United States is exposed to an American downturn through a real channel. Despite the fact that we use a wide number of possible causes in a flexible statistical framework, we are unable to find strong evidence that international linkages can be clearly associated with the incidence of the crisis. In particular, countries heavily exposed to either American assets or trade seem to behave little differently than other countries; if anything, countries seem to have benefited slightly from American exposure
Non-economic engagement and international exchange : the case of environmental treaties by Andrew Rose( Book )
12 editions published between 2006 and 2008 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
"We examine the role of non-economic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as environmental treaties, environmental engagement tends to encourage international lending. Countries with such non-economic partnerships also find it easier to engage in economic exchanges since they face the possibility that debt default might also spill over to hinder their non-economic relationships. We present a theoretical model of these ideas, and then verify their empirical importance using a bilateral cross-section of data on international cross-holdings of assets and environmental treaties. Our results support the notion that international environmental cooperation facilitates economic exchange"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility by Andrew Rose( Book )
13 editions published between 2007 and 2008 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In particular, we show that countries that are further from major locations of international financial activity systematically experience more volatile growth rates in both output and consumption, even after accounting for political institutions, trade, and other controls. Our results are relatively robust in the sense that more financially remote countries are more volatile, though the results are not always statistically significant. The comparative strength of this finding is in contrast to the more ambiguous evidence found in the literature
Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis : an update by Andrew Rose( Book )
13 editions published between 2010 and 2011 in English and Undetermined and held by 19 libraries worldwide
Abstract: We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns
The Olympic effect by Andrew Rose( Book )
13 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 18 libraries worldwide
Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible benefits. These doubts are rarely shared by policy-makers and the population, who are typically quite enthusiastic about such spectacles. In this paper, we reconcile these positions by examining the economic impact of hosting mega-events like the Olympics; we focus on trade. Using a variety of trade models, we show that hosting a mega-event like the Olympics has a positive impact on national exports. This effect is statistically robust, permanent, and large; trade is around 30% higher for countries that have hosted the Olympics. Interestingly however, we also find that unsuccessful bids to host the Olympics have a similar positive impact on exports. We conclude that the Olympic effect on trade is attributable to the signal a country sends when bidding to host the games, rather than the act of actually holding a mega-event. We develop a political economy model that formalizes this idea, and derives the conditions under which a signal like this is used by countries wishing to liberalize
Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis by Andrew Rose( Book )
11 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 18 libraries worldwide
While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties. We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to the United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure. We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Takeoffs by Joshua Aizenman( Book )
8 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff -- a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. We examine a panel of 241 "stagnation episodes" from 146 countries, 54 % of these episodes are followed by takeoffs. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0% growth; 46% of the takeoffs are "sustained," i.e. lasting 8 years or longer. Using probit estimation, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one standard deviation increase in de jure trade openness is associated with a 55% increase in the probability of a takeoff in our default specification. We also find evidence that capital account openness encourages takeoff responses, although this channel is less robust. Measures of de facto trade openness, as well as a variety of other potential conditioning variables, are found to be poor predictors of takeoffs. We also examine the determinants of nations achieving sustained takeoffs. While we fail to find a significant role for openness in determining whether or not takeoffs are sustained, we do find a role for output composition: Takeoffs in countries with more commodity-intensive output bundles are less likely to be sustained, while takeoffs in countries that are more service-intensive are more likely to be sustained. This suggests that adverse terms of trade shocks prevalent among commodity exports may play a role in ending long-term high growth episodes
Reestablishing the income-democracy nexus by Jess Benhabib( Book )
8 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
A number of recent empirical studies have cast doubt on the "modernization theory" of democratization, which posits that increases in income are conducive to increases in democracy levels. This doubt stems mainly from the fact that while a strong positive correlation exists between income and democracy levels, the relationship disappears when one controls for country fixed effects. This raises the possibility that the correlation in the data reflects a third causal characteristic, such as institutional quality. In this paper, we reexamine the robustness of the income-democracy relationship. We extend the research on this topic in two dimensions: first, we make use of newer income data, which allows for the construction of larger samples with more within-country observations. Second, we concentrate on panel estimation methods that explicitly allow for the fact that the primary measures of democracy are censored with substantial mass at the boundaries, or binary censored variables. Our results show that when one uses both the new income data available and a properly non linear estimator, a statistically significant positive income-democracy relationship is robust to the inclusion of country fixed effects
Monetary policy effectiveness in China : evidence from a FAVAR model by John G Fernald( Book )
7 editions published in 2014 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy. A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. In contrast to much of the literature, however, we find that central-bank-determined changes in Chinese interest rates also have substantial impacts on economic activity and inflation, while other measures of changes in credit conditions, such as shocks to M2 or lending levels, do not once other policy variables are taken into account. Overall, our results indicate that the monetary policy transmission channels in China have moved closer to those of Western market economies
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Alternative Names
Mark Spiegel American economist
Mark Spiegel Amerikaans econoom
Mark Spiegel US-amerikanischer Wirtschaftswissenschaftler
Spiegel, M. M. 1960-
Spiegel, Mark M.
Spiegel, Mark M. 1960-
Spiegel, Mark Maury 1960-
English (210)
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