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Landon-Lane, John S.

Overview
Works: 51 works in 139 publications in 2 languages and 641 library holdings
Genres: History 
Roles: Author
Classifications: HB1, 330.072
Publication Timeline
Key
Publications about John S Landon-Lane
Publications by John S Landon-Lane
Most widely held works by John S Landon-Lane
How could everyone have been so wrong? : forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads by Adam Klug( Book )
12 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 49 libraries worldwide
Contemporary observers viewed the recession that began in the summer of 1929 as nothing extraordinary. Recent analyses have shown that the subsequent large deflation was econometrically forecastable, implying that a driving force in the depression was the high expected real interest rates faced by business. Using a neglected data set of forecasts by railroad shippers, we find that business was surprised by the magnitude of the great depression. We show that an ARIMA or Holt-Winters model of railroad shipments would have produced much smaller forecast errors than those indicated by the surveys. The depth and duration of the depression was beyond the experience of business, which appears to have believed that recovery would happen quickly as in previous recessions. This failure to anticipate the collapse of the economy suggests roles for both high real rates of interest and a debt deflation in the propagation of the depression
Good versus bad deflation : lessons from the gold standard era by Michael D Bordo( Book )
4 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 37 libraries worldwide
"Deflation has had a bad rap, largely based on the experience of the 1930's when deflation was synonymous with depression. Recent experience with declining prices in Japan and China together with the concern over deflation in Europe and the United States has led to renewed attention to the topic of deflation. In this paper we focus our attention on the deflation experience of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany in the late nineteenth century during a period characterized by low deflation, rapid productivity growth, positive output growth, and where many nations had a credible nominal anchor based on gold: circumstances which have resonance with the world of today. We identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and money supply shocks using a structural panel vector autoregression. We then use historical decompositions to investigate the impact that these structural shocks had on output and prices. Our findings are that the deflation of the late nineteenth century reflected both positive aggregate supply shocks and negative money supply shocks. However, the negative money supply shocks had little effect on output. This we posit is because the aggregate supply curve was very steep in the short run during this period. This contrasts greatly with the deflation experience during the Great Depression. Thus our empirical evidence suggests that deflation in the nineteenth century was primarily good"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Monetary policy and regional interest rates in the United States, 1880-2002 by John S Landon-Lane( Book )
9 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 34 libraries worldwide
The long running debate among economic historians over how long it took regional financial markets in the United States to become fully integrated should be of considerable interest to students of monetary unions. This paper reviews the debate, discusses the implications of various hypotheses for the optimality of the US monetary union, and presents some new findings on the origin and diffusion of monetary shocks. It appears that financial markets were integrated in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the sense that monetary shocks were routinely transmitted from one part of the United States to another. In particular, shocks to interest rates in the eastern financial centers were routinely transmitted to the periphery. However, it also appears that during this period significant shocks to bank lending rates in the periphery often arose on the periphery itself. This suggests that a nineteenth century monetary authority that relied on operations confined to eastern financial centers would have had a difficult time managing the U.S. monetary union. After World War II the problem of eruptions on the periphery declined
Revealed Informal Activity by Ralitza Dimova( file )
5 editions published between 2010 and 2011 in English and German and held by 21 libraries worldwide
What does it mean to be in the informal sector? Many characterizations have been used in the literature, for example, firms that are unregistered or employ a small workforce or firms/economic enterprises that do not have access to formal capital markets. But many people participate in both formal and informal activities, while classification of partici-pation is often based on primary employment. This creates limitations to the analytical power of existing measures of informality. We develop a method for assigning house-holds to the informal sector by inferring informal sector activity using income and ex-penditure surveys. We apply this method to the case of Bulgaria using LSMS income and expenditure surveys before and after a significant economic reform and compare it to those made using other indicators of informal sector activity. Our work shows that the informal sector acts as a buffer for households during periods of crisis when formal sector employment opportunities are limited. It shows the limitations of alternative styl-ized measures of informality in assessing the vulnerability of households involved in the informal sector, especially during periods of extreme economic hardship
Where to work? The role of the household in explaining gender differences in labour market outcomes by Ralitza Dimova( file )
3 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
With the use of panel data constructed from the 1995 and 1997 Bulgarian Integrated Household Surveys, this paper explores the sectoral reallocation of labour by gender. In Bulgaria, men and women started the transition on an almost equal standing, allowing us to concentrate our attention on the impact of individual and household characteristics in explaining gender differences in the labour market. We find that household characteristics, rather than alternative explanations such as differences in individual characteristics or pure gender discrimination, better explain the observed gender differences in labour market outcomes. -- Employment ; gender ; household ; mobility
Gender differences in German upward income mobility by Ira N Gang( Book )
5 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 12 libraries worldwide
We examine the upward labor income mobility of men and women in Germany using the GSOEP Cross National Equivalent File. Women have greater overall income mobility. However, utilizing a measure of upward income mobility and calculating the posterior probability that men's upward income mobility is greater than women's, we find that men have overall greater upward income mobility. Women have greater upward mobility in the lower initial income classes, in the upper initial income brackets men's mobility is higher than women's
Droughts, floods and financial distress in the United States by John S Landon-Lane( Book )
8 editions published between 2009 and 2010 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
The relationships among the weather, agricultural markets, and financial markets have long been of interest to economic historians, but relatively little empirical work has been done. We push this literature forward by using modern drought indexes, which are available in detail over a wide area and for long periods of time to perform a battery of tests on the relationship between these indexes and sensitive indicators of financial stress. The drought indexes were devised by climate historians from instrument records and tree rings, and because they are unfamiliar to most economic historians and economists, we briefly describe the methodology. The financial literature in the area can be traced to William Stanley Jevons, who connected his sun spot theory to rainfall patterns. The Dust bowl of the 1930s brought the climate-finance link to the attention of the general public. Here we assemble new evidence to test various hypotheses involving the impact of extreme swings in moisture on financial stress
Exits from recessions : the U.S. experience 1920-2007 by Michael D Bordo( Book )
9 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 10 libraries worldwide
In this paper we provide some evidence on when central banks have shifted from expansionary to contractionary monetary policy after a recession has ended--the exit strategy. We examine the relationship between the timing of changes in several instruments of monetary policy and the timing of changes of selected real macro aggregates and price level (inflation) variables across U.S. business cycles from 1920-2007. We find, based on historical narratives, descriptive evidence and econometric analysis, that in the 1920s and the 1950s the Fed would generally tighten when the price level turned up. By contrast, since 1960 the Fed has generally tightened when unemployment peaked and this tightening often occurred after inflation began to rise. The Fed is often too late to prevent inflation
Accumunation and productivity growth in industrializing economies by John S Landon-Lane( Book )
2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 9 libraries worldwide
WWII and long run convergence in the OECD by John S Landon-Lane( Book )
2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 7 libraries worldwide
A Bayesian exploration of growth and convergence by John S Landon-Lane( Book )
2 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 7 libraries worldwide
The Lessons from the Banking Panics in the United States in the 1930s for the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 by Michael D Bordo( Book )
8 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 6 libraries worldwide
Abstract: In the recent crisis the Federal Reserve learned the Friedman and Schwartz lesson from the banking panics of the 1930s of conducting expansionary open market policy to meet demands for liquidity. Unlike the 1930s the deepest problem of the recent crisis was not illiquidity but insolvency and especially the fear of insolvency of counterparties
Money and interest rates in the United States during the Great Depression by Peter F Basile( Book )
7 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 6 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper reexamines the debate over whether the United States fell into a liquidity trap in the 1930s. We first review the literature on the liquidity trap focusing on Keynes's discussion of absolute liquidity preference" and the division that soon emerged between Keynes, who believed that a liquidity trap had not been reached, and the American Keynesians who believed that the United States had fallen into a liquidity trap. We then explore several interest rates that have been neglected in previous analyses: yields on corporate debt (from Aaa to junk), bank lending rates, and mortgage rates. In general, our results strengthen the case for believing that there was no liquidity trap in the 1930s in the sense of one that covered the full spectrum of interest rates. The small segment of time in which a liquidity trap might have been present, however, makes drawing firm conclusions risky
The global financial crisis of 2007-08 : is it unprecedented? by Michael D Bordo( Book )
7 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
Abstract: In terms of global incidence the recent crisis is fourth in ranking and comparable to 1907-08. We also calculate output losses during the recessions associated with global financial crises and again the recent crisis is similar in severity to 1907-08 and is fourth in ranking. On both dimensions the recent crisis is a pale shadow of the Great depression. The relatively mild experience of the recent crisis may reflect institutional and policy learning
Where to work? : gender differences in labor market outcomes during economic crisis by Ralitza Dimova( Book )
2 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
In Central and Eastern European women started the process of transition from socialist to market economies with a status quo that differed markedly from women in both developed western and traditional developing economies. They enjoyed an equal or higher level of education than men, virtually no unemployment, only temporary labor force departures, lavish maternity and child related benefits. Using panel data constructed from the 1995 and 1997 Bulgarian Integrated Household Surveys, our results reveal striking gender differences with respect to the reallocation of male and female employ-ees to and out of the public and private sectors. -- Employment ; Mobility ; Gender ; Household
What Explains House Price Booms? History and Empirical Evidence by Michael D Bordo( Book )
5 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
In this paper we investigate the relationship between loose monetary policy, low inflation, and easy bank credit with house price booms. Using a panel of 11 OECD countries from 1920 to 2011 we estimate a panel VAR in order to identify shocks that can be interpreted as loose monetary policy shocks, low inflation shocks, bank credit shocks and house price shocks. We show that loose monetary policy played an important role in housing booms along with the other shocks. We show that during boom periods there is a heightened impact of all three "policy" shocks with the bank credit shock playing an important role. However, when we look at individual house price boom episodes the cause of the price boom is not so clear. The evidence suggests that the house price boom that occurred in the US during the 1990s and 2000s was not due to easy bank credit. Loose monetary policy (as well as low inflation) played some role but the residual which may be picking up other factors such as financial innovation and the shadow banking system is the most important shock. This result is robust to many alternative specifications
Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence by Michael D Bordo( Book )
5 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
In this paper we investigate the relationship between loose monetary policy, low inflation, and easy bank credit with asset price booms. Using a panel of up to 18 OECD countries from 1920 to 2011 we estimate the impact that loose monetary policy, low inflation, and bank credit has on house, stock and commodity prices. We review the historical narratives on asset price booms and use a deterministic procedure to identify asset price booms for the countries in our sample. We show that "loose" monetary policy -- that is having an interest rate below the target rate or having a growth rate of money above the target growth rate -- does positively impact asset prices and this correspondence is heightened during periods when asset prices grew quickly and then subsequently suffered a significant correction. This result was robust across multiple asset prices and different specifications and was present even when we controlled for other alternative explanations such as low inflation or "easy" credit
Towards a history of the junk bond market, 1910 - 1955 by Peter F Basile( Book )
4 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
We present a new monthly index of the yield on junk (high yield) bonds from 1910-1955. We then use the index to reexamine some of the main debates about the financial history of the interwar years. A close look at junk bond yields: (1) strengthens the view that the decline in lending standards in the late 1920s was modest at best: (2) casts doubt on the view that the banking crisis that began in 1930 disrupted financial markets because banks liquidated their holdings of risky bonds; (3) strengthens the view that the cost of capital rose substantially in the early 1930s and remained high for the rest of the decade; (4) casts doubt on the view that financial markets entered a liquidity trap in the second half of the 1930s; and (5) strengthens the case for believing that junk bond yields contain some information useful for making economic forecasts
Migration as a substitute for informal activities : evidence from Tajikistan by Ilhom Abdulloev( Computer File )
4 editions published in 2011 in English and German and held by 3 libraries worldwide
How is migration related to informal activities? They may be complementary since new migrants may have difficulty finding employment in formal work, so many of them end up informally employed. Alternatively, migration and informality may be substitutes since migrants' incomes in their new locations and income earned in the home informal economy (without migration) are an imperfect trade-off. Tajikistan possesses both a very large informal sector and extensive international emigration. Using the gap between household expenditure and income as an indicator of informal activity, we find negative significant correlations between informal activities and migration: the gap between expenditure and income falls in the presence of migration. Furthermore, Tajikistan's professional workers ability to engage in informal activities enables them to forgo migration, while low-skilled non-professionals without post-secondary education choose to migrate instead of working in the informal sector. Our empirical evidence suggests migration and informality substitute for one another. -- informal ; migration ; remittances ; Tajikistan
Housing markets and migration in New Zealand, 1962-2006 by Andrew M. G Coleman( file )
1 edition published in 2007 in English and held by 0 libraries worldwide
 
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Alternative Names
Landon-Lane, J.
Landon-Lane, John
Landon-Lane, John S.
Lane, John S. Landon-
Languages
English (102)
German (2)
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