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Landon-Lane, John S.

Overview
Works: 39 works in 93 publications in 2 languages and 475 library holdings
Genres: History 
Roles: Creator
Classifications: HB1, 330.072
Publication Timeline
Key
Publications about John S Landon-Lane
Publications by John S Landon-Lane
Most widely held works by John S Landon-Lane
How could everyone have been so wrong? : forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads by Adam Klug( Book )
9 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 71 libraries worldwide
Contemporary observers viewed the recession that began in the summer of 1929 as nothing extraordinary. Recent analyses have shown that the subsequent large deflation was econometrically forecastable, implying that a driving force in the depression was the high expected real interest rates faced by business. Using a neglected data set of forecasts by railroad shippers, we find that business was surprised by the magnitude of the great depression. We show that an ARIMA or Holt-Winters model of railroad shipments would have produced much smaller forecast errors than those indicated by the surveys. The depth and duration of the depression was beyond the experience of business, which appears to have believed that recovery would happen quickly as in previous recessions. This failure to anticipate the collapse of the economy suggests roles for both high real rates of interest and a debt deflation in the propagation of the depression
Monetary policy and regional interest rates in the United States, 1880-2002 by John S Landon-Lane( Book )
7 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 61 libraries worldwide
"The long running debate among economic historians over how long it took regional financial markets in the United States to become fully integrated should be of considerable interest to students of monetary unions. This paper reviews the debate, discusses the implications of various hypotheses for the optimality of the US monetary union, and presents some new findings on the origin and diffusion of monetary shocks. It appears that financial markets were integrated in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the sense that monetary shocks were routinely transmitted from one part of the United States to another. In particular, shocks to interest rates in the Eastern financial centers were routinely transmitted to the periphery. However, it also appears that during this period significant shocks to bank lending rates in the periphery often arose on the periphery itself. This suggests that a nineteenth century monetary authority that relied on operations confined to eastern financial centers would have had a difficult time managing the U.S. monetary union. After World War II the problem of eruptions on the periphery declined"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Good versus bad deflation : lessons from the gold standard era by Michael D Bordo( Book )
4 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 59 libraries worldwide
"Deflation has had a bad rap, largely based on the experience of the 1930's when deflation was synonymous with depression. Recent experience with declining prices in Japan and China together with the concern over deflation in Europe and the United States has led to renewed attention to the topic of deflation. In this paper we focus our attention on the deflation experience of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany in the late nineteenth century during a period characterized by low deflation, rapid productivity growth, positive output growth, and where many nations had a credible nominal anchor based on gold: circumstances which have resonance with the world of today. We identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and money supply shocks using a structural panel vector autoregression. We then use historical decompositions to investigate the impact that these structural shocks had on output and prices. Our findings are that the deflation of the late nineteenth century reflected both positive aggregate supply shocks and negative money supply shocks. However, the negative money supply shocks had little effect on output. This we posit is because the aggregate supply curve was very steep in the short run during this period. This contrasts greatly with the deflation experience during the Great Depression. Thus our empirical evidence suggests that deflation in the nineteenth century was primarily good"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Exits from recessions the U.S. experience 1920-2007 by Michael D Bordo( file )
6 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 40 libraries worldwide
In this paper we provide some evidence on when central banks have shifted from expansionary to contractionary monetary policy after a recession has ended--the exit strategy. We examine the relationship between the timing of changes in several instruments of monetary policy and the timing of changes of selected real macro aggregates and price level (inflation) variables across U.S. business cycles from 1920-2007. We find, based on historical narratives, descriptive evidence and econometric analysis, that in the 1920s and the 1950s the Fed would generally tighten when the price level turned up. By contrast, since 1960 the Fed has generally tightened when unemployment peaked and this tightening often occurred after inflation began to rise. The Fed is often too late to prevent inflation
The lessons from the banking panics in the United States in the 1930s for the financial crisis of 2007-2008 by Michael D Bordo( file )
6 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 36 libraries worldwide
In this paper we revisit the debate over the role of the banking panics in 1930-33 in precipitating the Great Contraction. The issue hinges over whether the panics were illiquidity shocks and hence in support of Friedman and Schwartz (1963) greatly exacerbated the recession which had begun in 1929, or whether they largely reflected insolvency in response to the recession caused by other forces. Based on a VAR and new data on the sources of bank failures in the 1930s from Richardson (2007), we find that illiquidity shocks played a key role in explaining the bank failures during the Friedman and Schwartz banking panic windows. In the recent crisis the Federal Reserve learned the Friedman and Schwartz lesson from the banking panics of the 1930s of conducting expansionary open market policy to meet demands for liquidity. Unlike the 1930s the deepest problem of the recent crisis was not illiquidity but insolvency and especially the fear of insolvency of counterparties
The global financial crisis of 2007-08 is it unprecedented? by Michael D Bordo( file )
4 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 36 libraries worldwide
This paper compares the recent global crisis and recession to earlier international financial crises and recessions. Based on existing chronologies of banking, currency and debt crises we identify clusters of crises. We use an identification of extreme events and a weighting scheme based on real GDP relative to the U.S. to identify global financial crises since 1880. For banking crises we identify five global ones since 1880: 1890-91, 1907-08, 1913-14, 1931-32, 2007-2008. In terms of global incidence the recent crisis is fourth in ranking and comparable to 1907-08. We also calculate output losses during the recessions associated with global financial crises and again the recent crisis is similar in severity to 1907-08 and is fourth in ranking. On both dimensions the recent crisis is a pale shadow of the Great depression. The relatively mild experience of the recent crisis may reflect institutional and policy learning
Money and interest rates in the United States during the Great Depression by Peter F Basile( file )
5 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 36 libraries worldwide
This paper reexamines the debate over whether the United States fell into a liquidity trap in the 1930s. We first review the literature on the liquidity trap focusing on Keynes's discussion of "absolute liquidity preference" and the division that soon emerged between Keynes, who believed that a liquidity trap had not been reached, and the American Keynesians who believed that the United States had fallen into a liquidity trap. We then explore several interest rates that have been neglected in previous analyses: yields on corporate debt (from Aaa to junk), bank lending rates, and mortgage rates. In general, our results strengthen the case for believing that there was no liquidity trap in the 1930s in the sense of one that covered the full spectrum of interest rates. The small segment of time in which a liquidity trap might have been present, however, makes drawing firm conclusions risky
Droughts, floods and financial distress in the United States by John S Landon-Lane( Computer File )
5 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
"The relationships among the weather, agricultural markets, and financial markets have long been of interest to economic historians, but relatively little empirical work has been done. We push this literature forward by using modern drought indexes, which are available in detail over a wide area and for long periods of time to perform a battery of tests on the relationship between these indexes and sensitive indicators of financial stress. The drought indexes were devised by climate historians from instrument records and tree rings, and because they are unfamiliar to most economic historians and economists, we briefly describe the methodology. The financial literature in the area can be traced to William Stanley Jevons, who connected his sun spot theory to rainfall patterns. The Dust bowl of the 1930s brought the climate-finance link to the attention of the general public. Here we assemble new evidence to test various hypotheses involving the impact of extreme swings in moisture on financial stress"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Revealed Informal Activity by Ralitza Dimova( file )
5 editions published between 2010 and 2011 in English and German and held by 22 libraries worldwide
What does it mean to be in the informal sector? Many characterizations have been used in the literature, for example, firms that are unregistered or employ a small workforce or firms/economic enterprises that do not have access to formal capital markets. But many people participate in both formal and informal activities, while classification of partici-pation is often based on primary employment. This creates limitations to the analytical power of existing measures of informality. We develop a method for assigning house-holds to the informal sector by inferring informal sector activity using income and ex-penditure surveys. We apply this method to the case of Bulgaria using LSMS income and expenditure surveys before and after a significant economic reform and compare it to those made using other indicators of informal sector activity. Our work shows that the informal sector acts as a buffer for households during periods of crisis when formal sector employment opportunities are limited. It shows the limitations of alternative styl-ized measures of informality in assessing the vulnerability of households involved in the informal sector, especially during periods of extreme economic hardship
Migration as a Substitute for Informal Activities Evidence from Tajikistan by Ilhom Abdulloev( Computer File )
4 editions published in 2011 in English and German and held by 19 libraries worldwide
How is migration related to informal activities? They may be complementary since new migrants may have difficulty finding employment in formal work, so many of them end up informally employed. Alternatively, migration and informality may be substitutes since migrants' incomes in their new locations and income earned in the home informal economy (without migration) are an imperfect trade-off. Tajikistan possesses both a very large informal sector and extensive international emigration. Using the gap between household expenditure and income as an indicator of informal activity, we find negative significant correlations between informal activities and migration: the gap between expenditure and income falls in the presence of migration. Furthermore, Tajikistan's professional workers ability to engage in informal activities enables them to forgo migration, while low-skilled non-professionals without post-secondary education choose to migrate instead of working in the informal sector. Our empirical evidence suggests migration and informality substitute for one another
Where to work? The role of the household in explaining gender differences in labour market outcomes by Ralitza Dimova( Computer File )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
With the use of panel data constructed from the 1995 and 1997 Bulgarian Integrated Household Surveys, this paper explores the sectoral reallocation of labour by gender. In Bulgaria, men and women started the transition on an almost equal standing, allowing us to concentrate our attention on the impact of individual and household characteristics in explaining gender differences in the labour market. We find that household characteristics, rather than alternative explanations such as differences in individual characteristics or pure gender discrimination, better explain the observed gender differences in labour market outcomes. -- Employment ; gender ; household ; mobility
Gender differences in German upward income mobility by Ira N Gang( Book )
4 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 12 libraries worldwide
Where to work? : gender differences in labor market outcomes during economic crisis by Ralitza Dimova( Book )
1 edition published in 2011 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Does the glass ceiling exist? : A cross-national perspective on gender income mobility ( Computer File )
2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
We compare male and female upward labor income mobility in Germany and the United States using the GSOEP-PSID Cross-National Equivalent File. Our main interest is to test whether a glass ceiling exists for women. Conventional thinking about the glass ceiling highlights the belief that the playing field is level for women and men in the labor market up to a certain point, after which there is an effective limit on advancement for women. We examine the glass ceiling hypothesis by looking at the income dynamics the movement of women and men through the distribution of income over time. We find that there is considerable evidence in favor of a glass ceiling both in Germany and the United States with men having approximately a 30% premium in their upward income mobility compared to women in the upper income classes. We also find significant, but smaller, differences at middle and low income levels for both countries
Accumunation and productivity growth in industrializing economies by John S Landon-Lane( Computer File )
2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Historically, episodes of rapid growth are accompanied by significant structural change. In this paper we therefore aim to quantify the extent to which factor accumulation induces structural change and productivity growth in industrializing economies. To fix ideas we present an extension of Barro, Mankiw and Sala-i-Martin's (1995) growth model that incorporates two sectors, traditional and modern, and an endogenous wage gap, due to efficiency wages. The model thus draws on ideas of Lewis (1954) and the dual economy literature. We quantify the model using a panel of 78 countries over the post war era. The results show that these labour reallocation effects can increase the effective return to physical capital by around 30% in many countries. We conclude that the productivity gains through labour re-allocation are potentially a significant contributing factor to transitional growth episodes in industrializing countries, and provide some examples
Directional mobility of debt ratings ( Computer File )
2 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
In this paper we describe a method to decompose a well-known measure of debt ratings mobility into it's directional components. We show, using sovereign debt ratings as an example, that this directional decomposition allows us to better understand the underlying characteristics of debt ratings migration and, for the case of the data set used, that the standard Markov chain model is not homogeneous in either the time or cross-sectional dimensions. We find that the directional decomposition also allows us to sign the change in quality of debt over time and across sub-groups of the population
The informal sector during crisis and transition ( Computer File )
1 edition published in 2005 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Where to work? : gender differences in labor market outcomes during economic crisis by Ralitza Dimova( Computer File )
1 edition published in 2011 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
In Central and Eastern European women started the process of transition from socialist to market economies with a status quo that differed markedly from women in both developed western and traditional developing economies. They enjoyed an equal or higher level of education than men, virtually no unemployment, only temporary labor force departures, lavish maternity and child related benefits. Using panel data constructed from the 1995 and 1997 Bulgarian Integrated Household Surveys, our results reveal striking gender differences with respect to the reallocation of male and female employ-ees to and out of the public and private sectors. -- Employment ; Mobility ; Gender ; Household
A likelihood-based evaluation of the segmented markets friction in equilibrium monetary models ( Computer File )
1 edition published in 2004 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
This paper estimates and compares the full participation and the segmented markets monetary frameworks. In both models, the real sector and monetary policy determine exogenously the joint process for the aggregate endowment and the short-term nominal interest rate, while the money growth rate and the inflation rate are determined endogenously. Using linearized versions of the models, we use Bayesian methods to compare the two models over the full dimension of the data. This likelihood-based comparison overwhelmingly favors the segmented markets model over the full participation model. The estimate of the fraction of households participating in financial markets is approximately 13%. The segmented markets model generates more persistent and more realistic impulse response functions to monetary policy shocks. Our results strongly suggest that taking the presence of market segmentation into account is important in understanding the short-run dynamics of the monetary sector
Housing markets and migration in New Zealand, 1962 - 2006 ( Computer File )
1 edition published in 2007 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
 
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Alternative Names
Landon-Lane, J.
Landon-Lane, John
Landon-Lane, John S.
Lane, John S. Landon-
Languages
English (72)
German (2)
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