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Vuolteenaho, Tuomo

Overview
Works: 16 works in 104 publications in 1 language and 741 library holdings
Classifications: HB1, 330.072
Publication Timeline
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Publications about Tuomo Vuolteenaho
Publications by Tuomo Vuolteenaho
Most widely held works by Tuomo Vuolteenaho
Bad beta, good beta by John Y Campbell( Book )
14 editions published between 2002 and 2003 in English and held by 77 libraries worldwide
This paper explains the size and value anomalies' in stock returns using an economically motivated two-beta model. We break the CAPM beta of a stock with the market portfolio into two components, one reflecting news about the market's future cash flows and one reflecting news about the market's discount rates. Intertemporal asset pricing theory suggests that the former should have a higher price of risk; thus beta, like cholesterol, comes in bad' and good' varieties. Empirically, we find that value stocks and small stocks have considerably higher cash-flow betas than growth stocks and large stocks, and this can explain their higher average returns. The poor performance of the CAPM since 1963 is explained by the fact that growth stocks and high-past-beta stocks have predominantly good betas with low risk prices
Who underreacts to cash-flow news? : evidence from trading between individuals and institutions by Randolph B Cohen( Book )
11 editions published between 2001 and 2002 in English and held by 71 libraries worldwide
A large body of literature suggests that firm-level stock prices "underreact" to news about future cash flows. We estimate a vector autoregression to examine the joint behavior of returns, cash-flow news, and trading between individuals and institutions. Our main finding is that institutions buy shares from individuals in response to good cash-flow news, thus exploiting the underreaction phenomenon. Institutions are not simply following price momentum strategies: When price goes up in the absence of positive cash-flow news, institutions sell shares to individuals. The response of institutional ownership to cash-flow news is weaker for small stocks. Since small stocks also exhibit the strongest underreaction patterns, this finding is consistent with institutions facing exogenous constraints in trading small stocks
The value spread by Randolph B Cohen( Book )
10 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 70 libraries worldwide
We decompose the cross-sectional variance of firms' book-to-market ratios using both a long U.S. panel and a shorter international panel. In contrast to typical aggregate time-series results, transitory cross-sectional variation in expected 15-year stock returns causes only a relatively small fraction (20%) of the total cross-sectional variance. The remaining dispersion can be explained by expected 15-year profitability and persistence of valuation levels. Furthermore, this fraction appears stable across time and across types of stocks. We also show that the expected return on value-minus-growth strategies is atypically high at times when the value spread (the difference between the book-to-market ratio of a typical value stock and a typical growth stock) is wide
What drives firm-level stock returns? by Tuomo Vuolteenaho( Book )
10 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 70 libraries worldwide
I use a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to decompose an individual firm's stock return into two components: changes in cash-flow expectations (i.e., cash-flow news) and changes in discount rates (i.e., expected-return news). The VAR yields three main results. First, firm-level stock returns are mainly driven by cash-flow news. For a typical stock, the variance of cash-flow news is more than twice that of expected-return news. Second, shocks to expected returns and cash flows are positively correlated for a typical small stock. Third, expected-return-news series are highly correlated across firms, while cash-flow news can largely be diversified away in aggregate portfolios
Inflation illusion and stock prices by John Y Campbell( Book )
6 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 67 libraries worldwide
"We empirically decompose the S & P 500's dividend yield into (1) a rational forecast of long-run real dividend growth, (2) the subjectively expected risk premium, and (3) residual mispricing attributed to the market's forecast of dividend growth deviating from the rational forecast. Modigliani and Cohn's (1979) hypothesis and the persistent use of the Fed model' by Wall Street suggest that the stock market incorrectly extrapolates past nominal growth rates without taking into account the impact of time-varying inflation. Consistent with the Modigliani-Cohn hypothesis, we find that the level of inflation explains almost 80% of the time-series variation in stock-market mispricing"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
New forecasts of the equity premium by Christopher Polk( Book )
6 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 66 libraries worldwide
"If investors are myopic mean-variance optimizers, a stock's expected return is linearly related to its beta in the cross section. The slope of the relation is the cross-sectional price of risk, which should equal the expected equity premium. We use this simple observation to forecast the equity-premium time series with the cross-sectional price of risk. We also introduce novel statistical methods for testing stock-return predictability based on endogenous variables whose shocks are potentially correlated with return shocks. Our empirical tests show that the cross-sectional price of risk (1) is strongly correlated with the market's yield measures and (2) predicts equity-premium realizations especially in the first half of our 1927-2002 sample"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
The price is (almost) right by Randolph B Cohen( Book )
8 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 64 libraries worldwide
"Most previous research tests market efficiency and asset pricing models using average abnormal trading profits on dynamic trading strategies, and typically rejects the joint hypothesis. In contrast, we measure the ability of a simple risk model and the efficient-market hypothesis to explain the level of stock prices. First, we find that cash-flow betas (measured by regressing firms' earnings on the market's earnings) explain the prices of value and growth stocks well, with a plausible premium. Second, we use a present-value model to decompose the cross-sectional variance of firms' price-to-book ratios into two components due to risk-adjusted fundamental value and mispricing. When we allow the discount rates to vary with cash-flow betas, the variance share of mispricing is negligible"--NBER website
Caught on tape : institutional order flow and stock returns by John Y Campbell( Book )
9 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
"Many questions about institutional trading can only be answered if one can track high-frequency changes in institutional ownership. In the US, however, institutions are only required to report their ownership quarterly in 13-F filings. We infer daily institutional trading behavior from the "tape", the Transactions and Quotes database of the New York Stock Exchange, using both a naive approach and a sophisticated method that best matches quarterly 13-F data. Increases in our measures of institutional flows negatively predict returns, particularly when institutions are selling. We interpret this as evidence that 13-F institutions compensate more patient investors for the service of providing liquidity. We also find that both very large and very small trades signal institutional activity, while medium size trades signal activity by the rest of the market"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Money illusion in the stock market : the Modigliani-Cohn hypothesis by Randolph B Cohen( Book )
7 editions published between 2004 and 2005 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
"Modigliani and Cohn [1979] hypothesize that the stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. While previous research has focused on the pricing of the aggregate stock market relative to Treasury bills, the money-illusion hypothesis also has implications for the pricing of risky stocks relative to safe stocks. Simultaneously examining the pricing of Treasury bills, safe stocks, and risky stocks allows us to distinguish money illusion from any change in the attitudes of investors towards risk. Our empirical resuts support the hypothesis that the stock market suffers from money illusion"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Explaining returns with cash-flow proxies by Peter Hecht( Book )
7 editions published between 2003 and 2005 in English and held by 62 libraries worldwide
"Stock returns are correlated with contemporaneous earnings growth, dividend growth, future real activity, and other cash-flow proxies. The correlation between cash-flow proxies and stock returns may arise from association of cash-flow proxies with one-period expected returns, cash-flow news, and/or expected-return news. We use Campbell's (1991) return decomposition to measure the relative importance of these three effects in regressions of returns on cash-flow proxies. In some of the popular specifications, variables that are motivated as proxies for cash-flow news also track a nontrivial proportion of one-period expected returns and expected-return news. As a result, the R2 from a regression of returns on cash-flow proxies may overstate or understate the importance of cash-flow news as a source of return variance"--NBER website
Growth or glamour? : fundamentals and systematic risk in stock returns by John Y Campbell( Book )
8 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 60 libraries worldwide
"The cash flows of growth stocks are particularly sensitive to temporary movements in aggregate stock prices (driven by movements in the equity risk premium), while the cash flows of value stocks are particularly sensitive to permanent movements in aggregate stock prices (driven by market-wide shocks to cash flows.) Thus the high betas of growth stocks with the market's discount-rate shocks, and of value stocks with the market's cash-flow shocks, are determined by the cash-flow fundamentals of growth and value companies. Growth stocks are not merely "glamour stocks" whose systematic risks are purely driven by investor sentiment. More generally, accounting measures of firm-level risk have predictive power for firms' betas with market-wide cash flows, and this predictive power arises from the behavior of firms' cash flows. The systematic risks of stocks with similar accounting characteristics are primarily driven by the systematic risks of their fundamentals"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Caught on Tape Predicting Institutional Ownership With Order Flow by John Y Campbell( Computer File )
3 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Many questions about institutional trading can only be answered if one can track institutional equity ownership continuously. However, these data are only available on quarterly reporting dates. We infer institutional trading behavior from the 'tape,' the Transactions and Quotes database of the New York Stock Exchange, by regress- ing quarterly changes in reported institutional ownership on quarterly buy and sell volume in different trade size categories. Our regression method predicts institutional ownership signifcantly better than the simple cutoff rules used in previous research. We also find that total buy (sell) volume predicts increasing (decreasing) institutional ownership, consistent with institutions demanding liquidity in aggregate. Furthermore, institutions tend to trade in large or very small sizes: buy (sell) volume at these sizes predicts increasing (decreasing) institutional ownership, while the pattern reverses at intermediate trade sizes that appear favored by individuals. We then explore changes in institutional trading strategies. Institutions appear to prefer medium size trades on high volume days and large size trades on high volatility days
Does risk or mispricing explain the cross-section of stock prices? by Randolph B Cohen( Book )
2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Most previous research evaluates market efficiency and asset pricing models using average abnormal trading profits on dynamic trading strategies. We measure the ability of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the efficient-market hypothesis to explain the level of stock prices. First, we find that cash-flow betas (measured by regressing firms' earnings on the market's earnings) explain the prices of value and growth stocks well, with a plausible premium. Second, we use a present-value model to decompose the cross-sectional variance of firms' price-to-book ratios into two components due to risk-adjusted fundamental value and mispricing. When we allow the discount rates to vary as predicted by the CAPM, the variance share of mispricing is negligible
Empirical applications of an accounting-based present-value model by Tuomo Vuolteenaho( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
Growth or glamour? : Fundamentals and systematic risk in stock returns ( Computer File )
1 edition published in 2005 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
The valoue spread by Randolph B Cohen( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
 
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Alternative Names
Vuolteenaho, Tuomo O.
Languages
English (104)
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