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Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem

Works: 39 works in 236 publications in 1 language and 1,112 library holdings
Genres: History 
Classifications: HB1, 330
Publication Timeline
Publications about Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Publications by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Most widely held works by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Mortality change, the uncertainty effect, and retirement by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( Book )
9 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 86 libraries worldwide
We examine the role of changing mortality in explaining the rise of retirement over the course of the 20th century. We construct a model in which individuals make labor/leisure choices over their lifetimes subject to uncertainty about their date of death. In an environment in which mortality is high, an individual who saved up for retirement would face a high risk of dying before he could enjoy his planned leisure. In this case, the optimal plan is for people to work until they die. As mortality falls, however, it becomes optimal to plan, and save for, retirement. We simulate our model using actual changes in the US life table over the last century, and show that this 'uncertainty effect' of declining mortality would have more than outweighed the 'horizon effect' by which rising life expectancy would have led to later retirement. One of our key results is that continuous changes in mortality can lead to discontinuous changes in retirement behavior
HIV and fertility in Africa first evidence from population-based surveys by Chinhui Juhn( file )
10 editions published between 2008 and 2009 in English and held by 66 libraries worldwide
The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. A recent paper by Young (2005), however, suggests that similar to the "Black Death" episode in Europe, HIV/AIDS will actually lead to higher growth per capita among the affected African countries. Not only will population decline, behavioral responses in fertility will reinforce this decline by reducing the willingness to engage in unprotected sex. We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys which link an individual woman's fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allows us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility. In contrast to Young (2005), however, we find that local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on non-infected women's fertility
What lies beneath the euro's effect on financial integration currency risk, legal harmonization, or trade? by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( file )
13 editions published between 2009 and 2010 in English and Undetermined and held by 60 libraries worldwide
Although recent research shows that the euro has spurred cross-border financial integration, the exact mechanisms remain unknown. We investigate the underlying channels of the euro's effect on financial integration using data on bilateral banking linkages among twenty industrial countries in the past thirty years. We also construct a dataset that records the timing of legislative-regulatory harmonization policies in financial services across the European Union. We find that the euro's impact on financial integration is primarily driven by eliminating the currency risk. Legislative-regulatory convergence explains part of the total effect, whereas trade has no role in explaining the euro's positive effect on integration
Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? an empirical investigation by Laura Alfaro( file )
11 editions published between 2003 and 2006 in English and held by 60 libraries worldwide
We examine the empirical role of different explanations for the lack of flows of capital from rich to poor countries the "Lucas Paradox." The theoretical explanations include differences in fundamentals across countries and capital market imperfections. We show that during 1970-2000 low institutional quality is the leading explanation. For example, improving Peru's institutional quality to Australia's level, implies a quadrupling of foreign investment. Recent studies emphasize the role of institutions for achieving higher levels of income, but remain silent on the specific mechanisms. Our results indicate that foreign investment might be a channel through which institutions affect long-run development
Capital flows in a globalized world : the role of policies and institutions by Laura Alfaro( Book )
7 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 56 libraries worldwide
"We describe the patterns of international capital flows in the period 1970 - 2000. We then examine the determinants of capital flows and capital flows volatility during this period. We find that institutional quality is an important determinant of capital flows. Historical determinants of current legal institutions have a direct effect on foreign investments. Policy plays a significant role in explaining the changes in the level of capital flows over time and their volatility"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Net capital flows and productivity : evidence from U.S. states ( Book )
5 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 54 libraries worldwide
"We study net capital flows between U.S. states. We present a simple neoclassical model in which total factor productivity (TFP) varies across states and over time and where capital freely moves across state borders. In this framework capital flows to states that experience a relative increase in TFP thus creating net cross-state capital ownership positions. Net ownership positions converge to zero over time in the absence of further TFP movements. While TFP can not be directly observed, we can identify states with high TFP growth as states with high output growth. By comparing the level of personal income to output, we construct indicators of net capital flows into a state. We then examine empirically if the level of net capital flows between states following relative movements in TFP corresponds to the predictions of the model and whether net ownership positions tend to converge to zero. Our empirical results imply large flows of capital between states; for example, we find that a state with annual per capita output growth 1 percent higher than the average state over 10 years would attract capital in the amount of $9,900 per capita over those 10 years. These magnitudes are in close agreement with the predictions of the model. We conclude that frictions associated with borders are likely to be the main explanation for "low" international capital flows"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
AIDS, reversal of the demographic transition and economic development : evidence from Africa by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( Book )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide
Theoretical models of demographic transition imply that fertility declines as a response to a decline in mortality. These models take their cue from the historical pattern of the demographic transition, which suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is a shock to mortality that threatens to reverse this path. Using country, and regional level data, this paper investigates the effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility rates from a panel of African countries during 1985-2000. Results differ depending on the estimation method. Cross-sectional estimates based on country and regional level data from Africa suggest a positive effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility both in OLS and in IV frameworks. Panel estimates show mixed results depending on the HIV/AIDS variable used, yielding a zero effect in most of the specifications. My results contrast with those of Young (2007), who find a strong negative effect of the epidemic on fertility using similar data from Africa and employing a panel estimation. I reconcile the different results by showing that his estimates also turns out to be statistically insignificant, once the standard errors are appropriately clustered
How big are the gains from international financial integration? by Indrit Hoxha( file )
11 editions published between 2009 and 2011 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide
We compare welfare in a calibrated neoclassical model of consumption under autarky to welfare under financial integration. The estimated welfare gains of integration depend intimately on the assumed speed of convergence between domestic and world rates of return. Using observed data from 1960-2000 to derive the initial fundamental characteristics for each of 92 countries, we parameterize the convergence process and calculate welfare under different assumptions regarding rates of convergence. Allowing for realistic rates, we calculate that welfare is nearly six times larger than previously found. Expanding our analysis to include the productivity gains from the inflow of FDI implies welfare gains twelve times larger than found before. Our results indicate substantial gains from international financial integration arising from persistent differences in fundamentals across nations
Sovereigns, upstream capital flows and global imbalances by Laura Alfaro( file )
13 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 49 libraries worldwide
We decompose capital flows -- both debt and equity -- into public and private components and study their relationship with productivity growth. This exercise reveals that international capital flows are mainly shaped by government decisions and sovereign to sovereign transactions. Specifically, we show: (i) international capital flows net of government debt are positively correlated with growth and allocated according to the neoclassical predictions; (ii) international capital flows net of official aid flows, which are mostly accounted as debt, are also positively correlated with productivity growth consistent with the predictions of the neoclassical model; (iii) public debt flows are negatively correlated with growth only if government debt is financed by another sovereign and not by private lenders. Our results show that the failure to consider official flows as the main driver of uphill flows and global imbalances is an important shortcoming of the recent literature
Deep financial integration and volatility by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( Computer File )
10 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 48 libraries worldwide
We investigate the relationship between financial integration and output volatility at micro and macro levels. Using a very large firm-level dataset from EU countries over time, we construct a measure of "deep" financial integration at the regional level based on foreign ownership at the firm level. We find a positive effect of foreign ownership on volatility of firms' outcomes. This effect survives aggregation and carries over to regional output. Exploiting variation in the transposition dates of EU-wide legislation, we find that high trust regions in countries who harmonized capital markets sooner have higher levels of financial integration and volatility
What hinders investment in the aftermath of financial crises insolvent firms or illiquid banks? by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( file )
9 editions published between 2010 and 2011 in English and held by 46 libraries worldwide
There are two leading views on how financial crises turn into recessions. The first view highlights the importance of a troubled banking sector that cannot provide credit to domestic firms. The second view stresses the relevance of short-term borrowing in foreign currency and the associated decline in net worth through a weak balance sheet. Both views underline the role of financial constraints as mechanisms that can lead to an aggregate investment collapse. By utilizing a new firm-level database from six Latin American countries between 1990-2005 and using a differences-in-differences methodology, we empirically test the importance of each view. We find that foreign exporters that hold short-term foreign currency denominated debt, increase investment by 13 percentage points compared to domestic exporters with foreign currency denominated debt. This result only holds when the currency crisis is combined with a banking crisis, implying that the key factor that hinders investment and growth is the decline in the supply of credit
Does trade cause capital to flow? evidence from historical rainfalls by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( Computer File )
8 editions published between 2010 and 2011 in English and held by 46 libraries worldwide
Are trade and capital mobility complements or substitutes? The standard Heckscher-Ohlin theory postulates that they are substitutes since trade integration invalidates the need for capital to flow to capital-scarce countries. On the other hand, in a recent paper, Antras and Caballero (2009) show that in a world with varying degrees of financial development, trade and capital mobility become complements since trade integration increases the return to capital in less financially developed economies. In our paper, we provide evidence for this complementarity between trade and financial flows of Germany, France, the U.K. --as source countries, and the Ottoman Empire -- as a host country, over 1859-1913. Given the provisionistic view of the Empire during this period, only a surplus agricultural production was exported after the Ottoman army was fed. This allowed us to match the content of the Ottoman trade with the agricultural production and instrument trade with rainfalls to establish causality. We find that trade causes capital to flow from the North -- the U.K., France and Germany, to the South -- the Ottoman Empire. This result holds after accounting for the negative effect of the Ottoman default on financial flows. The complementarity between trade and capital flows gets weaker after the default only when the Ottoman Empire was made subject to a sanction in the form of financial control of the sovereign
Financial integration and business cycle synchronization by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( Book )
11 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 46 libraries worldwide
Standard theory predicts that financial integration leads to a lower degree of business cycle synchronization. Surprisingly, cross-country studies find the opposite. Our contribution is to document the theoretically predicted negative effect of financial integration on business cycle synchronization as a robust regularity. We use a confidential dataset on banks' international bilateral exposure over the past three decades in a panel of twenty developed countries. The rich panel structure allows us to control for time-invariant country-pair factors and global trends that affect both financial integration and business cycle patterns. In contrast to previous empirical work we find that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with less synchronized output cycles. We also employ two distinct instrumental variable approaches to identify the one-way effect of integration on synchronization. These specifications reveal that the component of banking integration predicted by legislative-regulatory harmonization policies and the nature of the bilateral exchange rate regime has a negative effect on output synchronization
Leverage across firms, banks, and countries by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( file )
10 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 43 libraries worldwide
We present new stylized facts on bank and firm leverage for 2000-2009 using extensive internationally comparable micro level data from several countries. The main result is that there was very little buildup in leverage for the average non-financial firm and commercial bank before the crisis, but the picture was quite different for large commercial banks in the United States and for investment banks worldwide. We document the following patterns: a) there was an increase in leverage ratios of investment banks and financial firms during the early 2000s; b) there was no visible increase for commercial banks and non-financial firms; c) off balance-sheet items constitute a big fraction of assets, especially for large commercial banks in the United States; d) the leverage ratio is procyclical for investment banks and for large commercial banks in the United States; e) banks in emerging markets with tighter bank regulation and stronger investor protection experienced significantly less deleveraging during the crisis. These results show that excessive risk taking before the crisis was not easily detectable because the risk involved the quality rather than the amount of assets
Risk sharing through capital gains by Faruk Balli( file )
9 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 42 libraries worldwide
We estimate channels of international risk sharing between European Monetary Union (EMU), European Union, and other OECD countries 1992-2007. We focus on risk sharing through savings, factor income flows, and capital gains. Risk sharing through factor income and capital gains was close to zero before 1999 but has increased since then. Risk sharing from capital gains, at about 6 percent, is higher than risk sharing from factor income flows for European Union countries and OECD countries. Risk sharing from factor income flows is higher for Euro zone countries, at 14 percent, reflecting increased international asset and liability holdings in the Euro area
Financial integration within EU countries the role of institutions, confidence and trust by M. Fatih Ekinci( file )
5 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 42 libraries worldwide
We investigate the degree of financial integration within and between European countries. We construct two measures of de-facto integration across European regions to capture "diversification" and "development" finance in the language of Obstfeld and Taylor (2004). We find evidence that capital market integration within the EU is less than what is implied by theoretical benchmarks and also less than what is found for U.S. states. We ask - why is this the case? Using country-level data for economic institutions, we find that these are not able to explain differences between countries. Using regional data from the World Values Surveys, we investigate the effect of "social capital" on financial integration among European regions. We find regions, where the level of confidence and trust is high, are more financially integrated with each other
Global banks and crisis transmission by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( Computer File )
10 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 41 libraries worldwide
We study the effect of financial integration (through banks) on the transmission of international business cycles. In a sample of 20 developed countries between 1978 and 2009 we find that, in periods without financial crises, increases in bilateral banking linkages are associated with more divergent output cycles.This relation is significantly weaker during financial turmoil periods, suggesting that financial crises induce co-movement among more financially integrated countries. We also show that countries with stronger, direct and indirect, financial ties to the U.S. experienced more synchronized cycles with the U.S. during the recent 2007-2009 crisis. We then interpret these findings using a simple general equilibrium model of international business cycles with banks and shocks to banking activity. The model suggests that the relation between integration and synchronization depends on the type of shocks hitting the world economy, and that shocks to global banks played an important role in triggering and spreading the 2007-2009 crisis
Risk-sharing and industrial specialization : regional and international evidence by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( Book )
17 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 37 libraries worldwide
The authors provide empirical evidence that risk sharing enhances specialization in production. To the best of their knowledge, this well-established and important theoretical proposition has not been tested before. The empirical procedure is summarized as follows. First, the authors construct a measure of specialization in production, and calculate an index of specialization for each of the European Community (EC) and non-EC OECD countries, U.S. states, Canadian provinces, Japanese prefectures, Latin American countries, and regions of Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Then, they estimate the degree of capital market integration (a measure of risk sharing) within each of these groups of regions: the EC countries, the non-EC OECD countries, the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom (and rely on another author's estimate for Latin America). Finally, they perform a regression of the specialization index on the degree of risk sharing, controlling for relevant economic variables. They find a positive and significant relation between the degree of specialization of individual members of a group of countries, provinces, states, or prefectures, and the amount of risk that is shared within the group. The authors perform regressions using variables such as shareholder rights and the size of the financial sector (relative to GDP) as instruments for the amount of inter-regional risk sharing. These regressions confirm that risk sharing-facilitated by a favorable legal environment and a developed financial system-is a direct causal determinant of industrial specialization
HIV and fertility revisited by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( file )
5 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 36 libraries worldwide
Young (2005) argues that HIV related population declines reinforced by the fertility response to the epidemic will lead to higher capital-labor ratios and to higher per capita incomes in the affected countries of Africa. Using household level data on fertility from South Africa and relying on between cohort variation in country level HIV infection, he estimates a large negative effect of HIV prevalence on fertility. However, the studies that utilize the recent rounds of Demographic Health Surveys, where fertility outcomes are linked to HIV status based on testing, find no effect of the disease on the fertility behavior. This paper tries to bridge this gap by revisiting Young's findings. Young (2005) includes data before 1990, when no data are available on HIV prevalence rates. He assigns all the fertility observations before 1990 with HIV prevalence rates of zero, and this appears to drive the significant negative effect found in his study. When one restricts the sample to the period 1990-1998, where actual HIV data are available, the effect of HIV prevalence on fertility turns out to be positive for South Africa. Simulating Young's model utilizing these new estimates shows that the future generations of South Africa are worse off
Misallocation, property rights, and access to finance evidence from within and across Africa by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan( file )
6 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 34 libraries worldwide
We study capital misallocation within and across 10 African countries using the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. First, we compare the extent of misallocation among firms within countries. We document high variation in firms' marginal product of capital (MPK), implying that countries could produce significantly more with the same aggregate capital stock if capital were allocated optimally. Such variation differs from country to country with some African countries (success stories) closer to developed country benchmarks. Small firms and non-exporters have less access to finance and have higher returns to capital in general. Self reported measures of obstacles to firms' operations suggest access to finance is the most important obstacle: A firm with the worst access to finance has MPK 45 percent higher than a firm with the worst access to finance as a result of low capital per worker. We compare average levels of the MPK across countries, finding evidence that the strength of property rights and the quality of the legal system help explain country-level differences in capital misallocation
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Alternative Names
Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem 1974-
Ozcan, Sebnem Kalemli-
Ozcan, Sebnem Kalemli- 1974-
English (184)
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