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Laxton, Douglas

Works: 85 works in 385 publications in 1 language and 3,563 library holdings
Roles: Editor
Classifications: HG230.3, 339.5
Publication Timeline
Publications about Douglas Laxton
Publications by Douglas Laxton
Most widely held works by Douglas Laxton
Practical model-based monetary policy analysis a how-to guide by Andrew Berg( file )
14 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 427 libraries worldwide
This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips) curve, a version of the uncovered interest parity condition, and a monetary policy reaction function. The paper discusses how to parameterize the model and use it for forecasting and policy analysis, illustrating with an application to Canada. It also introduces a set of useful software tools for conducting a model-consistent forecast
GEM : a new international macroeconomic model by Tamim A Bayoumi( Book )
8 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 289 libraries worldwide
Over the past two years, the IMF staff has been developing a new multicountry macroeconomic model called the Global Economy Model (GEM). This paper explains why such a model is needed, how GEM differs from its predecessor model, and how the new features of the model can improve the IMF's policy analysis. The paper is aimed at a general audience and avoids technical detail. It outlines the motivation, structure, strengths, and limitations of the model; examines three simulation exercises that have been completed; and discusses the future path of GEM
MULTIMOD Mark III : the core dynamic and steady-state models by Hamid Faruqee( Book )
10 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 261 libraries worldwide
This study describes the Mark III version of MULTIMOD, the IMF's multi region macroeconomic model. Mark III version of MULTIMOD differs from its predecessor in several important respects. New features include a core steady-state analogue model, a new model of teh inflation-unemployment nexus, and extended non-Ricardian specification of consumption-saving behavior, and improved specifications and estimates of investment behavior and international trade equations. In addition, the introduction of a new solution algorithm has greatly increased the robustness, speed of convergence, and accuracy of the simulations
Inflation targeting pillars transparency and accountability by Charles Freedman( file )
12 editions published between 2005 and 2009 in English and held by 207 libraries worldwide
This is the fourth chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation- Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." It examines a number of issues related to transparency and accountability in an inflation-targeting regime. It first looks at the factors behind the move to increased transparency in recent years and the important role of a communications strategy in transparency. It then turns to the role of the forecast in communications, how risks surrounding the forecast are communicated, and whether there should be limits on what is made public. It concludes with a short discussion of accountability
Why inflation targeting? by Charles Freedman( file )
14 editions published between 2004 and 2009 in English and held by 201 libraries worldwide
This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled ""On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say."" We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targe
IT framework design parameters by Charles Freedman( file )
14 editions published between 2006 and 2009 in English and held by 200 libraries worldwide
This is the third chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled ""On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say."" It examines a number of elements in the design of an inflation-targeting framework. These include the definition of the target variable, the relevance of core measures of inflation, and the advantages and disadvantages of point targets, point targets with a band, and range targets. It then discusses the choice of a long-term inflation rate, the target horizon, and the policy horizon
Fiscal deficits and current account deficits by Michael Kumhof( file )
12 editions published between 2006 and 2009 in English and held by 198 libraries worldwide
The effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, fiscal deficits can have worrisome implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50 percent of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75 percent for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100 percent for a small open economy
Simple, implementable fiscal policy rules by Michael Kumhof( file )
12 editions published between 2006 and 2009 in English and held by 196 libraries worldwide
This paper analyzes the scope for systematic rules-based fiscal activism in open economies. Relative to a balanced budget rule, automatic stabilizers significantly improve welfare. But they minimize fiscal instrument volatility rather than business cycle volatility. A more aggressively countercyclical tax revenue gap rule increases welfare gains by around 50 percent, with only modest increases in fiscal instrument volatility. For raw materials revenue gaps the government should let automatic stabilizers work. The best fiscal instruments are targeted transfers, consumption taxes and labor taxes
Chile's structural fiscal surplus rule a model-based evaluation by Michael Kumhof( file )
15 editions published between 2004 and 2010 in English and held by 194 libraries worldwide
Developing a structured forecasting and policy analysis system to support inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) by Douglas Laxton( file )
10 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 192 libraries worldwide
This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model
Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe : a macroeconomic assessment by Tamim A Bayoumi( Book )
20 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 111 libraries worldwide
"Using a general-equilibrium simulation model featuring nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition in product and labor markets, this paper estimates the macroeconomic benefits and international spillovers of an increase in competition. After calibrating the model to the euro area vs. the rest of the industrial world, the paper draws three conclusions. First, greater competition produces large effects on macroeconomic performance, as measured by standard indicators. In particular, we show that differences in competition can account for over half of the current gap in GDP per capita between the euro area and the US. Second, it may improve macroeconomic management by increasing the responsiveness of wages and prices to market conditions. Third, greater competition can generate positive spillovers to the rest of the world through its impact on the terms of trade"--Federal Reserve Board web site
Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies by Douglas Laxton( Book )
8 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 73 libraries worldwide
This paper develops a variant of the IMF's Global Economic Model (GEM) suitable to analyze macroeconomic dynamics in open economies, and uses it to assess the effectiveness of Taylor rules and Inflation-Forecast-Based (IFB) rules in stabilizing variability in output and inflation. Our findings suggest that a simple IFB rule that does not rely upon any direct estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate and places a relatively high weight on the inflation forecast may perform better in small open economies than conventional Taylor rules
Deflationary shocks and monetary rules an open-economy scenario analysis by Douglas Laxton( file )
11 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 65 libraries worldwide
"The paper considers the macroeconomic transmission of demand and supply shocks in an open economy under alternative assumptions on whether the zero interest floor (ZIF) is binding. It uses a two country general-equilibrium simulation model calibrated to the Japanese economy vis a vis the rest of the world. Negative demand shocks have more prolonged and startling effects on the economy when the ZIF is binding than when it is not binding. Positive supply shocks can actually extend the period of time over which the ZIF may be expected to bind. More open economies hit the ZIF for a shorter period of time, and with less harmful effects. Deflationary supply shocks have different implications according to whether they are concentrated in the tradables rather than the nontradables sector. Price level path targeting rules are likely to provide better guidelines for monetary policy in a deflationary environment, and have desirable properties in normal times when the ZIF is not binding" National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Government debt in an open economy by Douglas Laxton( Book )
8 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
A simple multivariate filter for the measurement of potential output by Douglas Laxton( Book )
7 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 53 libraries worldwide
Phillips curves, Phillips lines and the unemployment costs of overheating by Peter B Clark( Book )
10 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide
During cyclical recoveries there may be periods during which declines in unemployment are associated with little or no rise in the inflation. Indeed, there have been occasions when both unemployment and inflation fell at the same time. This was the case in the United States from 1984 to 1986 and in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom from 1992 to 1994. This inversion of the more typical inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment may reflect simply the fact that the actual unemployment rate is above the NAIRU as well as other factors, such as changes in the NAIRU itself, inflation expectations, or quasi-exogenous elements such as commodity prices
Is the Phillips curve really a curve? : some evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States by Guy Debelle( Book )
7 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 40 libraries worldwide
Simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty by Peter Isard( Book )
7 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 36 libraries worldwide
This paper employs stochastic simulations and stability analysis to compare the performances of several types of simple monetary policy rules in a small model of the U.S. economy. The model, which is estimated with quarterly data for the post-1968 period, exhibits a moderate degree of nonlinearity, assumes that inflation expectations have a model-consistent component, and treats the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) as a time-varying and unobservable parameter. The simulation framework assumes that policymakers update their estimates of the NAIRU period by period, using their information about the macroeconomic model, and in a manner that implicitly recognizes the tendency to make serially-correlated errors in estimating the NAIRU
A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits by Douglas Laxton( Book )
8 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 36 libraries worldwide
This paper develops a 2-country New Keynesian overlapping generations model suitable for the joint evaluation of monetary and fiscal policies. We show that a permanent increase in U.S. government deficits raises the world real interest rate and significantly increases U.S. current account deficits, especially in the medium- to long-run. A simultaneous increase in non-U.S. savings lowers the world real interest rate and further increases U.S. current account deficits. We show that conventional infinite horizon models are ill-equipped to deal with issues that involve permanent changes in public or private sector savings rates
Possible effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland : a case study of policy dilemmas caused by low inflation and the nominal interest rate floor by Douglas Laxton( Book )
10 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 35 libraries worldwide
As the target date for the third stage of European Monetary Union (EMU) approaches, the effects of EMU are likely to be felt not just on the likely participants but also on countries that, although in some cases not even part of the European Union, have substantial trade and other economic relationships with EMU participants. This paper presents a case study of the possible macroeconomic effects of EMU on one such country, Switzerland. Although the analytical framework developed in this paper could, in principle, be applied more broadly to countries in Europe that will not participate in EMU, this focus on the Swiss economy is particularly interesting from an analytical perspective for a number of reasons that are discussed below
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Alternative Names
Laxton, D.
Laxton, D. (Douglas)
Laxton, Doug
English (217)
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