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Dooley, Michael P. (Michael Patrick) 1944-

Works: 76 works in 540 publications in 1 language and 6,943 library holdings
Genres: Conference papers and proceedings 
Roles: Author, Editor, Other, Honoree
Classifications: HB1, 330
Publication Timeline
Publications about Michael P Dooley
Publications by Michael P Dooley
Most widely held works by Michael P Dooley
Debt reduction and economic activity by International Monetary Fund( Book )
13 editions published in 1990 in English and held by 366 libraries worldwide
The paper consists of two main sections. The first of these analyzes the effect of debt and debt-service reduction on the contractual and market values of a country's debt. The second section describes the Fund staff's preliminary attempts to describe and debt-service reduction
Analytical issues in debt by Peter Wickham( Book )
17 editions published between 1989 and 1995 in English and Undetermined and held by 353 libraries worldwide
This book presents a sample of the work of the IMF and that of world-renowned scholars on the analytical issues surrounding the explosion of countries with debt-servicing difficulties and describes debt initiatives and debt reduction techniques that hold the best promise for finding a lasting solution to the problems of debtor countries
The Political economy of policy-making : essays in honor of Will E. Mason by Will Edwin Mason( Book )
15 editions published in 1979 in English and held by 323 libraries worldwide
Managing currency crises in emerging markets by Michael P Dooley( Book )
14 editions published between 2003 and 2007 in English and held by 297 libraries worldwide
The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it is also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists - many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues - consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it
Financial repression and capital mobility : why capital flows and covered interest rate differentials fail to measure capital market integration by Michael P Dooley( Book )
27 editions published between 1995 and 1997 in English and held by 107 libraries worldwide
Required reserves on banks' deposit liabilities have been utilized by both industrial and developing countries to discourage and sterilize international capital flows. In this paper we utilize an open economy macro model incorporating bank credit to evaluate this policy. The model suggests that high levels of reserve requirements are a perverse policy tool in that they amplify the effects of foreign monetary shocks, but changes in reserve requirements can insulate a repressed financial market from international financial shocks. The model also suggests that traditional measures of capital mobility such as interest parity conditions or the scale of gross private capital flows are of no value in assessing the openness of repressed financial systems
Capital mobility and exchange market intervention in developing countries by Michael P Dooley( Book )
23 editions published between 1996 and 1997 in English and held by 104 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper develops a new technique for measuring changes in the degree of capital mobility confronting a developing country that has restrictions on capital flows and official ceilings on domestic interest rates. Because such official controls rule out the use of traditional interest rate parity conditions to measure changes in the degree of capital mobility, the analysis first examines an intertemporal model of an open economy. This model describes the linkages between the cost of undertaking disguised capital flows, the current account, capital controls, domestic and external financial market conditions, and the authorities' foreign exchange market interventions. The model suggests a means of measuring changes in the cost of undertaking disguised capital flows, based on the past history of differentials between external interest rates (adjusted for exchange rate changes) and domestic ceiling interest rates, provided that the authorities' foreign exchange market activities are incorporated into the analysis. Parameter estimates for Korea, Mexico, and the Philippines indicate that the real cost of undertaking disguised capital flows declined on average by nearly 70 percent between the early 1970s and the late 1980s
A survey of academic literature on controls over international capital transactions by Michael P Dooley( Book )
24 editions published between 1995 and 1996 in English and held by 93 libraries worldwide
This paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical work on controls over international capital movements. Theoretical contributions reviewed focus on 'second best' arguments for capital market restrictions as well as arguments based on multiple equilibria. The empirical literature suggests that controls have been 'effective' in the narrow sense of influencing yield differentials. But there is little evidence that controls have helped governments meet policy objectives, with the exception of reduction in the governments' debt service costs, and no evidence that controls have enhanced economic welfare in a manner suggested by theory
A model of crises in emerging markets by Michael P Dooley( Book )
19 editions published between 1997 and 1998 in English and held by 87 libraries worldwide
First generation models of speculative attacks show that apparently random speculative attacks on policy regimes can be fully consistent with rational and well-informed speculative behavior. Unfortunately, models driven by a conflict between exchange rate policy and other macroeconomic objectives do not seem consistent with important empirical regularities surrounding recent crises in emerging markets. This has generated considerable interest in models that associate crises with self-fulfilling shifts in private expectations. " In this paper we develop a first generation model based on an alternative policy conflict. Credit constrained governments accumulate reserve assets in order to self-insure against shocks to national consumption. Governments also insure poorly regulated domestic financial markets. Given this policy regime, a variety of internal and external shocks generate capital inflows to emerging markets followed by successful and anticipated speculative attacks. We argue that a common external shock generated capital inflows to emerging markets in Asia and Latin America after 1989. Country specific factors determined the timing of speculative attacks. Lending policies of industrial country governments and international organizations account for contagion, that is, a bunching of attacks over time
Monetary policy in Japan, Germany and the United States : does one size fit all? by Menzie David Chinn( Book )
16 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 80 libraries worldwide
We study the post-war evidence for Japan to see if the same specification for both the economy and the monetary policy rule is useful for understanding Japan's economy and monetary policy. A recurrent theme in the literature on Japanese monetary policy is that there are significant differences in both the policy procedures and objectives as compared to other industrial countries. In this paper we propose an out of sample' test of a set of restrictions on a vector autoregression employed by Clarida and Gertler (1997) in their analysis of the Bundesbank's behavior. Our interpretation of the evidence is that, with minor adjustments, the same specification provides a useful framework for understanding monetary policy in Japan. Perhaps the most interesting finding is that the Bank of Japan appears to react to inflation over longer forecast horizons as compared to other central banks
Recent private capital inflows to developing countries : is the debt crisis history? by Michael P Dooley( Book )
13 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 74 libraries worldwide
This empirical study finds that while debt reduction and policy reforms in debtor countries have been important determinants of renewed access to international capital markets, changes in international interest rates have been the dominant factor. We calculate the effects of changes in international interest rates for a 'typical' debtor country. We conclude that increases in interest rates associated with business cycle upturn in industrial countries could depress the secondary market prices of existing debt to levels inconsistent with continued capital inflows
Exchange rates, country preferences, and gold by Michael P Dooley( Book )
17 editions published in 1992 in English and Undetermined and held by 68 libraries worldwide
This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely conterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence, that gold price movements, under the maintained hypothesis, should have explanatory power with respect to exchange rate movements over and above the effects of monetary shocks. The paper applies multivariate vector autoregression and cointegration modeling techniques to test for the short- and long-run influence of gold prices on exchange rates conditional on other monetary and real macroeconomic variables, and applies the resulting error correction exchange rate equation to out-of-sample forecasting exercises
Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises by Menzie David Chinn( Book )
12 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 67 libraries worldwide
This paper focuses on the 1995 Latin American and 1997 East Asian crises using an insurance-based model of financial crises. First the model of Dooley (forthcoming) is described. Second, some empirical evidence for an insurance model is presented. The key variables in this approach include the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to bank loans (domestic credit) extended to the private sector, the ability of the private sector to appropriate government assets, and appropriation as measured by capital flight. We argue that the insurance model is consistent with the observed evolution of these variables in the recent crises in Latin America and Asia. Finally, we examine the statistical evidence in favor of the model using panel regressions. We find that the econometric results are consistent with the insurance model, and tend to support this approach over some competing explanations
Private inflows when crises are anticipated : a case study of Korea by Michael P Dooley( Book )
13 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 61 libraries worldwide
Models of financial crises based on distortions in capital markets have strong implications for the behavior of investors leading up to crises. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that deregulation of financial markets in Korea provided the incentives and opportunities for a sequence of capital inflows and crisis. We show that deregulation was associated with a sharp declines in the franchise value of Korean banks. Banks responded by expanding their balance sheets and accumulating high risk, high return assets. The regulatory mechanism appears to have failed because of the failure to consolidate onshore and offshore activities of banks. Foreign banks that supplied deposits to Korean banks behaved as if they were insured in that they did not discriminate between weak and strong Korean banks. Finally, this expectation was validated at the time of crisis by government intervention that allowed foreign banks to liquidate their claims on Korean banks
Can output losses following international financial crises be avoided? by Michael P Dooley( Book )
13 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 60 libraries worldwide
Recent financial crises in emerging markets have been followed by temporary but substantial losses in output. This paper explores the possibility that threats of such losses are the dominant incentive for repayment of international debt. In this environment private debtors and creditors have strong incentives to design international contracts so that renegotiation is costly. Such contracts generate dead weight losses and proposals for reform of the international monetary system that modify explicit and implicit contractual arrangements and can be welfare improving under special circumstances. However, such proposals might also weaken the incentives that make private international debt possible
A retrospective on the debt crisis by Michael P Dooley( Book )
13 editions published between 1994 and 1995 in English and held by 60 libraries worldwide
In this paper I argue that the international debt crisis of 1982 can best be understood as a prolonged negotiation between commercial banks and their own governments over who would bear the economic losses generated by loans made to developing countries. This interpretation of the debt crisis is contrasted with the more familiar approach that emphasizes conflict between debtor countries and their creditors. The main conclusion is that the failure of governments of industrial countries to resolve this conflict with their banks transformed an unremarkable financial crisis into a decade-long economic crisis for debtor countries. The analysis also suggests that recent capital inflows to developing countries are less likely to generate the same economic costs for debtor countries even if changes in the economic environment generate similar losses for investors
Rescue packages and output losses following crises by Michael P Dooley( Book )
12 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 56 libraries worldwide
This paper examines the role of the third party (the IMF) in resolving sovereign default on external debt. We first show that the effects of third party intervention in debt negotiations are quite sensitive to the assumed enforcement mechanism for sovereign debt. The model is then adapted to an insurance crisis. The main result is that the unanticipated component of third party intervention can either intensify or mitigate the dead weight loss following default
Tax credits for debt reduction by Michael P Dooley( Book )
15 editions published between 1989 and 1992 in English and held by 56 libraries worldwide
The incentives for domestic investment in debtor countries are influenced by the terms of their external obligation and by the system of taxation utilized to provide government revenue for debt payments. It is well known that existing debt contracts could be altered to improve the incentives for investment but this has proven difficult to accomplish, perhaps because individual creditors have incentives not to agree to such changes. In this paper we show that a simple tax credit scheme that can be implemented unilaterally by the debtor government can overcome at least some of the inefficiencies caused by existing debt contracts
Asia-Pacific capital markets : integration and implications for economic activity by Menzie David Chinn( Book )
12 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 53 libraries worldwide
The apparent success of several East Asian countries in sterilizing capital inflows seems to contradict findings of high capital mobility. This paper argues that empirical studies examining money market rates may be misleading, since most lending is mediated through domestic banking systems. In developing countries with repressed domestic financial markets bank deposit yields might be closely tied to international interest rates but bank loan rates might be more independent. A simple open-economy macro model incorporating bank credit is used to motivate alternative tests of financial market integration. Capital inflows are found to affect bank lending in cases where deposit and loan markets are integrated with world markets and hence sterilization is not effective. In cases where loan rates are more independent sterilization seems to be more effective. Next, we examine the effect of bank lending on economic activity. The data suggest that the link between bank credit and investment is important in countries with isolated bank loan markets
The revived Bretton Woods system : the effects of periphery intervention and reserve management on interest rates and exchange rates in center countries by Michael P Dooley( Book )
14 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 47 libraries worldwide
In this paper we explore some implications of the revived' Bretton Woods system for exchange market intervention and reserve management in periphery countries. Financial policies in these countries are seen as a component of a more general portfolio management policy in which the formation of an efficient domestic capital stock is a key objective. Because intervention in financial markets is an important part of their development strategy, intervention in exchange and financial markets has, and we argue will continue to be, large and persistent enough to generate predictable deviations of exchange rates and relative yields in industrial country financial markets from normal cyclical patterns. We argue that management of the currency composition of international reserves by emerging market governments and central banks is unlikely to alter these conclusions
An analysis of external debt positions of eight developing countries through 1990 by Michael P Dooley( Book )
6 editions published in 1983 in English and held by 16 libraries worldwide
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Alternative Names
Dooley, M. 1944-
Dooley, M. P. 1944-
Dooley, Michael 1944-
Dooley, Michael Patrick.
Dooley, Michael Patrick 1944-
Michael P. Dooley economist (University of California-Santa Cruz (UCSC))
Michael P. Dooley Wirtschaftswissenschaftler (Wirtschaftswissenschaftler / Vollständiger Vorname: Michael Patrick)
English (305)
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