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Barberis, Nicholas

Works: 23 works in 174 publications in 2 languages and 1,053 library holdings
Roles: Author
Classifications: HB1, 330.072
Publication Timeline
Publications about Nicholas Barberis
Publications by Nicholas Barberis
Most widely held works by Nicholas Barberis
Prospect theory and asset prices by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
13 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 72 libraries worldwide
We propose a new framework for pricing assets, derived in part from the traditional consumption-based approach, but which also incorporates two long-standing ideas in psychology: prospect theory, and evidence on how prior outcomes affect risky choice. Consistent with prospect theory, the investor in our model derives utility not only from consumption levels but also from changes in the value of his financial wealth. He is much more sensitive to reductions in wealth than to increases, the 's'sloss-aversion'' feature of prospect utility. Moreover consistent with experimental evidence, the utility he receives from gains and losses in wealth depends on his prior investment outcomes; prior gains cushion subsequent losses -- the so-called 'house-money' effect -- while prior losses intensify the pain of subsequent shortfalls. We study asset prices in the presence of agents with preferences of this type, and find that our model reproduces the high mean, volatility, and predictability of stock returns. The key to our results is that the agent's risk-aversion changes over time as a function of his investment performance. This makes prices much more volatile than underlying dividends and together with the investor's loss-aversion, leads to large equity premia. Our results obtain with reasonable values for all parameters
How does privatization work? : evidence from the Russian shops by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
13 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 70 libraries worldwide
We use a survey of 452 Russian shops, most of which were privatized between 1992 and 1993, to measure the importance of alternative channels through which privatization promotes restructuring. Restructuring is measured as capital renovation, change in suppliers, increase in hours that stores stay open, and layoffs. There is strong evidence that the presence of new owners and new managers raises the likelihood of restructuring. In contrast, there is no evidence that equity incentives of old managers promote restructuring. The evidence points to the critical role that new human capital plays in economic transformation
A model of investor sentiment by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
13 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 65 libraries worldwide
Recent empirical research in finance has uncovered two families of pervasive regularities: underreaction of stock prices to news such as earnings announcements; and overreaction of stock prices to a series of good or bad news. In this paper, we present a parsimonious model of investor sentiment that is, of how investors form beliefs that is consistent with the empirical findings. The model is based on psychological evidence and produces both underreaction and overreaction for a wide range of parameter values
Comovement by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
17 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 57 libraries worldwide
A number of studies have identifed patterns of positive correlation of returns, or comovement, among different traded securities. We distinguish three views of such comovement. The traditional 'fundamentals' view explains the comovement of securities through positive correlations in the rational determinants of their values, such as cash flows or discount rates. 'Category-based' comovement occurs when investors classify different securities into the same asset class and shift resources in and out of this class in correlated ways. A related phenomenon of 'habitat-based' comovement arises when a group of investors restricts its trading to a given set of securities, and moves in and out of that set in tandem. We present models of each of the three types of comovement, and then assess them empirically using data on stock inclusions into and deletions from the S & P 500 index. Index changes are noteworthy because they change a stock's category and investor clientele (habitat), but do not change its fundamentals. We find that when a stock is added to the index, its beta and R-squared with respect to the index increase, while its beta with respect to stocks outside the index falls. The converse happens when a stock is deleted. These results are broadly supportive of the category and habitat views of comovement, but not of the fundamentals view. More generally, we argue that these non-traditional views may help explain other instances of comovement in the data
Style investing by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
15 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 54 libraries worldwide
We study asset prices in an economy where some investors classify risky assets into different styles and move funds back and forth between these styles depending on their relative performance. Our assumptions imply that news about one style can affect the prices of other apparently unrelated styles, that assets in the same style will comove too much while assets in different styles comove too little, and that high average returns on a style will be associated with common factors for reasons unrelated to risk. They also lead to a rich pattern of own- and cross-autocorrelations, sample premia that can be very different from true premia, and imply that style momentum strategies will be profitable. We use our model to shed light on many puzzling features of the data
Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
12 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 53 libraries worldwide
We study equilibrium firm-level stock returns in two economies: one in which investors are loss averse over the fluctuations of their stock portfolio and another in which they are loss averse over the fluctuations of individual stocks that they own. Both approaches can shed light on empirical phenomena, but we find the second approach to be more successful: in that economy, the typical individual stock return has a high mean and excess volatility, and there is a large value premium in the cross-section which can, to some extent, be captured by a commonly used multifactor model
A survey of behavioral finance by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
13 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 48 libraries worldwide
"Behavioral finance argues that some financial phenomena can plausibly be understood using models in which some agents are not fully rational. The field has two building blocks: limits to arbitrage, which argues that it can be difficult for rational traders to undo the dislocations caused by less rational traders; and psychology, which catalogues the kinds of deviations from full rationality we might expect to see. We discuss these two topics, and then present a number of behavioral finance applications: to the aggregate stock market, to the cross-section of average returns, to individual trading behavior, and to corporate finance. We close by assessing progress in the field and speculating about its future course."--Abstract on item
Individual preferences, monetary gambles and the equity premium by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
12 editions published between 2002 and 2003 in English and held by 47 libraries worldwide
We argue that narrow framing, whereby an agent who is offered a new gamble evaluates that gamble in isolation, separately from other risks she already faces, may be a more important feature of decision-making under risk than previously realized. To demonstrate this, we present evidence on typical attitudes to independent monetary gambles with both large and small stakes and show that across a wide range of utility functions, including all expected utility and many non-expected utility specifications, the only ones that can easily capture these attitudes are precisely those exhibiting narrow framing. Our analysis also makes predictions about the kinds of preferences that might be able to address the stock market participation and equity premium puzzles. We illustrate these predictions in simple portfolio choice and equilibrium settings
What drives the disposition effect? : an analysis of a long-standing preference-based explanation by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
10 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 24 libraries worldwide
One of the most striking portfolio puzzles is the "disposition effect": the tendency of individuals to sell stocks in their portfolios that have risen in value since purchase, rather than fallen in value. Perhaps the most prominent explanation for this puzzle is based on prospect theory. Despite its prominence, this explanation has received little formal scrutiny. We take up this task, and analyze the trading behavior of investors with prospect theory preferences. We find that, at least for the simplest implementation of prospect theory, the link between these preferences and the disposition effect is not as obvious as previously thought: in some cases, prospect theory does indeed predict a disposition effect, but in others, it predicts the opposite. We provide intuition for these results, and identify the conditions under which the disposition effect holds or fails. We also discuss the implications of our results for other disposition-type effects that have been documented in settings such as the housing market, futures trading, and executive stock options
Stocks as lotteries : the implications of probability weighting for security prices by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
9 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
We study the asset pricing implications of Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) cumulative prospect theory, with particular focus on its probability weighting component. Our main result, derived from a novel equilibrium with non-unique global optima, is that, in contrast to the prediction of a standard expected utility model, a security's own skewness can be priced: a positively skewed security can be "overpriced," and can earn a negative average excess return. Our results offer a unifying way of thinking about a number of seemingly unrelated financial phenomena, such as the low average return on IPOs, private equity, and distressed stocks; the diversification discount; the low valuation of certain equity stubs; the pricing of out-of-the-money options; and the lack of diversification in many household portfolios
The loss aversion narrow framing approach to the equity premium puzzle by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
10 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 20 libraries worldwide
We review a recent approach to understanding the equity premium puzzle. The key elements of this approach are loss aversion and narrow framing, two well-known features of decision-making under risk in experimental settings. In equilibrium, models that incorporate these ideas can generate a large equity premium and a low and stable risk-free rate, even when consumption growth is smooth and only weakly correlated with the stock market. Moreover, they can do so for parameter values that correspond to sensible attitudes to independent monetary gambles. We conclude by suggesting some possible directions for future research
A model of casino gambling by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
7 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 12 libraries worldwide
Casino gambling is a hugely popular activity around the world, but there are still very few models of why people go to casinos or of how they behave when they get there. In this paper, we show that prospect theory can offer a surprisingly rich theory of gambling, one that captures many features of actual gambling behavior. First, we demonstrate that, for a wide range of parameter values, a prospect theory agent would be willing to gamble in a casino, even if the casino only offers bets with zero or negative expected value. Second, we show that prospect theory predicts a plausible time inconsistency: at the moment he enters a casino, a prospect theory agent plans to follow one particular gambling strategy; but after he enters, he wants to switch to a different strategy. The model therefore predicts heterogeneity in gambling behavior: how a gambler behaves depends on whether he is aware of the time-inconsistency; and, if he is aware of it, on whether he is able to commit, in advance, to his initial plan of action
Realization utility by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
7 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
We study the possibility that, aside from standard sources of utility, investors also derive utility from realizing gains and losses on assets that they own. We propose a tractable model of this "realization utility," derive its predictions, and show that it can shed light on a number of puzzling facts. These include the poor trading performance of individual investors, the disposition effect, the greater turnover in rising markets, the effect of historical highs on the propensity to sell, the negative premium to volatility in the cross-section, and the heavy trading of highly valued assets. Underlying some of these applications is one of our model's more novel predictions: that, even if the form of realization utility is linear or concave, investors can be risk-seeking
Thirty years of prospect theory in economics : a review and assessment by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
5 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 8 libraries worldwide
Prospect theory, first described in a 1979 paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, is widely viewed as the best available description of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. While the theory contains many remarkable insights, economists have found it challenging to apply these insights, and it is only recently that there has been real progress in doing so. In this paper, after first reviewing prospect theory and the difficulties inherent in applying it, I discuss some of this recent work. While it is too early to declare this research effort an unqualified success, the rapid progress of the last decade makes me optimistic that at least some of the insights of prospect theory will eventually find a permanent and significant place in mainstream economic analysis -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site
X-CAPM : an extrapolative capital asset pricing model by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
5 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 8 libraries worldwide
Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns: they expect the stock market to perform well (poorly) in the near future if it performed well (poorly) in the recent past. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which some investors form beliefs about future price changes in the stock market by extrapolating past price changes, while other investors hold fully rational beliefs. We find that the model captures many features of actual prices and returns, but is also consistent with the survey evidence on investor expectations. This suggests that the survey evidence does not need to be seen as an inconvenient obstacle to understanding the stock market; on the contrary, it is consistent with the facts about prices and returns, and may be the key to understanding them -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Using neural data to test a theory of investor behavior : an application to realization utility by Cary Frydman( Book )
3 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Abstract: We use measures of neural activity provided by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to test the "realization utility" theory of investor behavior, which posits that people derive utility directly from the act of realizing gains and losses. Subjects traded stocks in an experimental market while we measured their brain activity. We find that all subjects exhibit a strong disposition effect in their trading, even though it is suboptimal. Consistent with the realization utility explanation for this behavior, we find that activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an area known to encode the value of options during choices, correlates with the capital gains of potential trades; that the neural measures of realization utility correlate across subjects with their individual tendency to exhibit a disposition effect; and that activity in the ventral striatum, an area known to encode information about changes in the present value of experienced utility, exhibits a positive response when subjects realize capital gains. These results provide support for the realization utility model and, more generally, demonstrate how neural data can be helpful in testing models of investor behavior
A survey of behavioral finance by Nicholas Barberis( Article )
2 editions published in 2003 in English and Italian and held by 2 libraries worldwide
A model of investor sentiment by Nicholas Barberis( Article )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
Individual preferences, monetary gambles and the equity program by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
1 edition published in 2003 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
Extrapolation and bubbles by Nicholas Barberis( Book )
3 editions published in 2016 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals-an average of the asset's past price changes and the asset's degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors "waver" over time in the relative weight they put on them. The model predicts that good news about fundamentals can trigger large price bubbles. We analyze the patterns of cash-flow news that generate the largest bubbles, the reasons why bubbles collapse, and the frequency with which they occur. The model also predicts that bubbles will be accompanied by high trading volume, and that volume increases with past asset returns. We present empirical evidence that bears on some of the model's distinctive predictions
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Alternative Names
Barberis, Nicholas C.
English (170)
Italian (1)
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