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World Bank Development Research Group

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Works: 484 works in 813 publications in 1 language and 11,821 library holdings
Genres: History 
Classifications: HG3881.5.W57,
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Most widely held works by World Bank
Financial liberalization : how far, how fast? ( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 313 libraries worldwide
"The goal of this volume is to bring a more broad-based empirical experience than has been customary to the theoretical debate on how financial systems should be managed. This is achieved not only with cross-country economic studies, but also with an account of carefully chosen and widely contrasting country cases, drawn from Europe, Latin America, Africa, East and South Asia, and the former Soviet Union. The widespread financial crises of recent years have all too dramatically illustrated the shortcomings of financial policy under liberalization. The complexity of the issues mocks any idea that a standard liberalization template will be universally effective. The evidence here described confirms that policy recommendations need to take careful account of country conditions. The volume is the outcome of a research project sponsored by the World Bank's Development Economics Research Group. Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz is the winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize for Economics." http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/cam021/00065151.html
History, historians and development policy : a necessary dialogue ( Book )
3 editions published between 2011 and 2012 in English and held by 201 libraries worldwide
Leading historians and policy advisors explore the implications of incorporating historical sensibilities into key development policy issues
Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financial system : the Turkish case, 1989-97 by Oya Celasun( Book )
2 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 71 libraries worldwide
Decentralizing the provision of health services : an incomplete contracts approach by William Jack( Book )
2 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 69 libraries worldwide
How should central and local governments allocate authority for the planning, financing, and delivery of health services?
The health effects of air pollution in Delhi, India by Maureen L Cropper( Book )
3 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 67 libraries worldwide
December 1997 Particulate air pollution has less overall impact on nontraumatic deaths in Delhi, India, than in U.S. cities. But the deaths occur earlier in life in Delhi, which could mean a larger loss in life-years. Cropper, Simon, Alberini, and Sharma report the results of a time-series study of the impact of particulate air pollution on daily mortality in Delhi. They find: * A positive, significant relationship between particulate pollution and daily nontraumatic deaths as well as deaths from certain causes (respiratory and cardiovascular problems) and for certain age groups. * In general, these impacts are smaller than those estimated for other countries, where on average a 100-microgram increase in total suspended particulates (TSP) leads to a 6-percent increase in nontraumatic mortality. In Delhi, such an increase in TSP is associated with a 2.3-percent increase in deaths. * The differences in magnitudes of the effects are most likely explained by differences in distributions of age at death and cause of death, as most deaths in Delhi occur before the age of 65 and are not attributed to causes with a strong association with air pollution. * Although air pollution seems to have less impact on mortality counts in Delhi, the number of life-years saved per death avoided is greater in Delhi than in U.S. cities-because the age distribution of impacts in these two places varies. In the United States particulates have the greatest influence on daily deaths among persons 65 and older. In Delhi, they have the greatest impact in the 15-to-44 age group. That means that for each death associated with air pollution, on average more life-years would be saved in Delhi than in the United States. Large differences in the magnitude of effects do call into question the validity of the concentration-response transfer procedure. In that procedure, concentration-response relationships found for industrial countries are applied to cities in developing countries with little or no adjustment, to estimate the effects of pollution on daily mortality. This paper-a product of Development Economics Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to examine the benefits and costs of pollution control. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under research project Measuring the Health Effects of Air Pollution in Developing Countries: The Case of Delhi, India (RPO 679-96). Maureen Cropper may be contacted at mcropper@worldbank.org
How Estonia's economic transition affected employment and wages, 1989-95 by Milan Vodopivec( Book )
4 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 67 libraries worldwide
October 1997 Estonia, which adopted relatively free labor market policies early in its transition, experienced rapid increases in returns to human capital Ñ rising returns to education and rising relative wages for younger educated workers, but declining returns to experience for older workers with little or no education. Noorkoiv, Orazem, Puur, and Vodopivec use a retrospective survey of 9,608 individuals, aged 16 to 75, to monitor the effects of Estonia's economic transition on wages and employment. Estonia is an interesting case because of its early adoption of relatively free labor market policies. Estonia's transition led to rapid increases in returns to human capital. Relative wages for the most educated workers rose for all age groups. There were also rapid increases in returns to job experience, especially for younger workers, but declining returns to experience for older workers with little education. Wage dispersion increased across groups categorized for human capital, but narrowed within those groups (consistent with the predicted effect of labor mobility on wages for comparably skilled workers). Women lost relative share of employment in most sectors but experienced increasing relative wages. Immigrants lost in both employment share and relative wages. Relative wages rose in sectors that gained relative employment and fell in shrinking sectors. Those results were consistent with mobile labor responses to demand shocks, suggesting that mechanisms for equilibrating the labor market developed very rapidly in Estonia. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to investigate employment and wages in transition economies. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Labor Market Adjustment in Estonia (RPO 679-71)
Aid, taxation, and development analytical perspectives on aid effectiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa by Christopher Adam( file )
4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 65 libraries worldwide
Designing effective aid programs requires accurately diagnosing problems. Under current donor efforts to promote democratization and institutional development, the shift from policy to institutional conditionality reflects an attempt by Africa's donors to recast the aid relationship from one that at best secures temporary policy changes to one that permanently alters institutions in favor of sustained growth and development. The design of effective aid programs depends on the diagnosis of the problem. To say that institutional failures are central to Africa's poor economic performance is not to repudiate early interpretations based on policy failures and capital shortages. Institutional failures produce policy failures that in turn produce capital shortages or the equivalent. Adam and O'Connell focus on the core of the evolving (mainly external) diagnosis of the African development problem, making these main points, among others: * Tax and taxlike distortions tend to be high and volatile in Africa. These influence the allocation of national wealth and can reduce both the level and productivity of domestic investment. The composition of domestic investment seems to be more important in explaining poor African growth than the level of domestic investment. * Policy-generated uncertainty (under-emphasized in the literature) can activate socially inefficient self-insurance mechanisms that reduce growth. When leaders have substantial discretion about policy, as they do in most African countries, executive transitions become a major source of uncertainty. * Patronage is heavily used in African systems of personal rule. Governments use distortionary taxes to finance transfers to politically powerful groups. * A government that is captive to a favored group will trade off growth for transfers, if the group is small enough relative to the government's disposable resources. In such a case, conditional aid can be ineffective in spurring growth and investment, even when the potential gains from aid are great. * Conditionality is required to secure the gains from aid when nonrepresentative political structures generate a conflict of interest between donors and recipient governments. When donors are in a strong bargaining position, conditionality agreements that mandate a reduction in distortionary taxes will also require that some part of lost revenues be made up by cuts in politically motivated transfers. But policy conditionality is difficult to enforce and even when perfectly enforceable is subject to the problem of aid dependency. * To avoid aid dependency, donors must focus on conditionality that shifts the no aid point. Under current donor efforts to promote democratization and institutional development, the shift from policy to institutional conditionality reflects an attempt by Africa's donors to recast the aid relationship from one that at best secures temporary policy changes to one that permanently alters institutions in favor of sustained growth and development. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of the research project Analytical Perspectives on Aid Effectiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa (RPO 680-18). The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget
Development strategy reconsidered Mexico, 1960-94 by Tōru Yanagihara( file )
3 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 64 libraries worldwide
March 1998 In developing strategy, the Mexican government has been politically inclined to favor agricultural or rural states over nonagricultural states--and less productive rural states--although its focus on the subsistence sector seems to have diminished recently. Different ways of discussing development strategy often reflect different definitions of development. Analysts who emphasize income or production as indicators of development may focus on macroeconomics or sectors. Other analysts may focus on distribution and social aspects as development. Economists tend to see development strategy from the normative, technocratic perspective of welfare economics. Political scientists may see development as a process of political interaction between different interests. Using Mexico as a case, the authors examine macroeconomic conditions and policies (based on flow of funds tables) and estimates of resource transfers between sectors and regions, to relate them to development strategies. They find that: - Macroeconomic conditions and policies have exerted a strong impact on resource transfers between the productive sector and the financial and fiscal sectors. - Because of the strong impact of macroeconomic conditions and policies, resource transfers between productive sectors were not necessarily evident for either financial or fiscal transfers. But combined transfers from nonagricultural states to agricultural states were significant in three out of four periods examined. - The government more effectively controls fiscal transfers because it is directly involved in decisionmaking about public investment and federal participation. Figures on fiscal transfers suggest that the government favored agricultural states in the quarter century studies. - Fiscal transfers dominated financial transfers--hence the general transfer from nonagricultural states to agricultural states. The Mexican government maintained a strong interventionist stance toward the rural and agricultural sector even as it espoused reducing the government's role in economic management. - During the era of shared development, the government favored less productive agricultural states over highly productive agricultural states. As agrarian reform was reformed, this favoritism diminished and eventually disappeared. - The study results reflect the Mexican government's political inclination to favor agricultural or rural states in coping with macroeconomic turmoil. In terms of development strategy, the federal government may have maintained that preference in securing resource flows, but that focus on the subsistence sector seems to have diminished recently. This paper--a product of the Development Research Group--is part of a larger study of the political economy of rural development strategies
Spatial poverty traps? by Jyotsna Jalan( file )
4 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
The empirical effects of performance contracts evidence from China by Mary M Shirley( file )
4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
May 1998 On average, performance contracts do not improve productivity in China's state enterprises and may even reduce it. But when they contain all the right features-managerial bonds, profit orientation, higher wage elasticity, and lower markup ratios-performance contracts can boost a firm's productivity growth rate by an estimated 10 percent. Performance contracts are widely used to reform state-owned enterprises. By June 1994, there were 565 such contracts in 32 developing countries, used principally to reform large utilities and other monopolies, and roughly another 103,000 in China, where they are also used to reform state manufacturing enterprises. A performance contract is a written agreement between the manager of a state enterprise (who promises to achieve specific targets in a certain time frame) and government (which-usually-promises to award achievement with a bonus or other incentive). Performance contracts are a variant of the pay-for-performance or incentive contracts often used to motivate managers in the private sector. In the public sector, they are viewed as a device to reveal information and motivate managers to exert effort. Shirley and Xu analyze China's experience with performance contracts in more than 400 state enterprises. China is a good place for such a study because no country has ever used them on such a scale or with such a variety of enterprises (mostly in the competitive sector). China also uses many different kinds of contracts, with different targets (more profit-, tax-, or output-oriented). Shirley and Xu find that performance contracts * On average, do not improve productivity in China's state enterprises and may even reduce it. * Are ineffective in competitive firms as well as monopolies. * Do more harm when they provide only weak incentives and when they do not reduce information asymmetry. They find no connection between variables for commitment and the effects of performance contracts. Design matters. When performance contracts contain all the good features-profit orientation, higher wage elasticity, and lower markup ratios-the firm's productivity growth rate could increase as much as 10 percent. The Chinese government was serious about implementing performance contracts, and used measures considerably more radical than other countries used, hailing the contract system as the official national mode for reforming state enterprises. But most of the contracts have had little or no effect on growth rates and the observed frequency of contracts with good provisions is exceedingly low. Perhaps the political economy of incentive contracts in government settings merits further study. Political considerations may preclude the design of incentive contracts for government actors that could produce the sort of productivity gains some private firms have achieved. One observer (Byrd 1991) points out that the central government gave local governments a good deal of discretion in implementing performance contracts and local governments had a tendency to adopt the lowest common denominator, a bare-bones performance contract. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand state enterprises. The authors may be contacted at mshirley@worldbank.org or lxu@worldbank.org
Reaching poor areas in a federal system by Martin Ravallion( file )
4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
The aid allocation to a province in a federal system should depend not only on how poor the province is but on how successfully it discriminates in favor of poor areas in public spending. In Argentina, stronger incentives are needed. Ravallion studies how well a federal antipoverty program reaches poor areas, taking the reactions of lower levels of government into account. He studies performance in reaching poor areas before and after World Bank-sponsored reforms in Argentina's antipoverty program. Program resources were substantially reallocated across provinces when Argentina's Trabajar 1 program was replaced by Trabajar 2, with increased spending and greater targeting to poor areas. Overall, performance in reaching poor areas (regardless of province) improved nationally. About a third of the gain in the program's ability to reach poor areas was attributed to the program's greater ability to reach poor provinces. The rest was attributed to better targeting of poor areas within provinces. The provinces differed greatly in ability to reach poor areas. History mattered. Differences in performance after reform partly reflected differences under the old program. Controlling for those factors, however, poorer provinces were less successful in targeting their poor areas. A higher provincial poverty rate attracted more central spending, which tended to result in more pro-poor spending within provinces. But even with greater central spending on poor provinces, poorer provinces were less successful at discriminating in favor of their poor areas. Decentralization generated substantial horizontal inequality in public spending on poor areas. The center clearly needs to give provincial governments stronger incentives to target the poor. Allocations to a province should depend not only on how poor the province is but on how successfully it discriminates in favor of poor areas. The results of this study suggest that stronger incentives are needed. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to help assess the performance of the Bank's antipoverty projects. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Policies for Poor Areas (RPO 678-69). The author may be contacted at mravallion@worldbank.org
Determinants of transient and chronic poverty evidence from rural China by Jyotsna Jalan( file )
4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
Both chronic and transient poverty are reduced by greater command over physical capital, and life-cycle effects for the two types of poverty are similar. But there the similarities end. Most policies aimed at reducing chronic poverty may have little or no effect on transient poverty. Are the determinants of chronic and transient poverty different? Do policies that reduce transient poverty also reduce chronic poverty? Jalan and Ravallion decompose measures of household poverty into chronic and transient components and use censored conditional quantile estimators to investigate the household and geographic determinants of both chronic and transient poverty, taking panel data for post-reform rural China. They find that a household's average wealth holding is an important determinant for both transient and chronic poverty. Although household demographics, levels of education, and the health status of members of the household are important for chronic poverty, they are not significant determinants of transient poverty. Both chronic and transient poverty are reduced by greater command over physical capital, and life-cycle effects for the two types of poverty are similar. But there the similarities end. Smaller and better-educated households have less chronic poverty, but household size and level of education matters little for transient poverty. Living in an area where health and education are better reduces chronic poverty but appears to be irrelevant to transient poverty. Nor are higher foodgrain yields a significant determinant of transient poverty, although they are highly significant in reducing chronic poverty. These findings suggest that China's poor-area development program may be appropriate for reducing chronic poverty but is unlikely to help reduce variations in consumption that households typically face in poor areas - the exposure to uninsured income risk that underlies transient poverty will probably persist. Other policy instruments may be needed to deal with transient poverty, including seasonal public works, credit schemes, buffer stocks, and insurance options for the poor. This paper - a product of Poverty and Human Resources, Development Research Group- is part of a larger effort in the group to reexamine the role of the informal sector. The authors may be contacted at jjalan@worldbank.org or mravallion@worldbank.org
Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and profitability some international evidence by Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt( file )
3 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
March 1998 Differences in interest margins reflect differences in bank characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, existing financial structure and taxation, regulation, and other institutional factors. Using bank data for 80 countries for 1988-95, Demirgüç-Kunt and Huizinga show that differences in interest margins and bank profitability reflect various determinants: * Bank characteristics. * Macroeconomic conditions. * Explicit and implicit bank taxes. * Regulation of deposit insurance. * General financial structure. * Several underlying legal and institutional indicators. Controlling for differences in bank activity, leverage, and the macroeconomic environment, they find (among other things) that: * Banks in countries with a more competitive banking sector-where banking assets constitute a larger share of GDP-have smaller margins and are less profitable. The bank concentration ratio also affects bank profitability; larger banks tend to have higher margins. * Well-capitalized banks have higher net interest margins and are more profitable. This is consistent with the fact that banks with higher capital ratios have a lower cost of funding because of lower prospective bankruptcy costs. * Differences in a bank's activity mix affect spread and profitability. Banks with relatively high noninterest-earning assets are less profitable. Also, banks that rely largely on deposits for their funding are less profitable, as deposits require more branching and other expenses. Similarly, variations in overhead and other operating costs are reflected in variations in bank interest margins, as banks pass their operating costs (including the corporate tax burden) on to their depositors and lenders. * In developing countries foreign banks have greater margins and profits than domestic banks. In industrial countries, the opposite is true. * Macroeconomic factors also explain variation in interest margins. Inflation is associated with higher realized interest margins and greater profitability. Inflation brings higher costs-more transactions and generally more extensive branch networks-and also more income from bank float. Bank income increases more with inflation than bank costs do. * There is evidence that the corporate tax burden is fully passed on to bank customers in poor and rich countries alike. * Legal and institutional differences matter. Indicators of better contract enforcement, efficiency in the legal system, and lack of corruption are associated with lower realized interest margins and lower profitability. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to study bank efficiency
Agricultural development issues, evidence, and consequences by Yair Mundlak( file )
5 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 63 libraries worldwide
Investments in technology have yielded large gains for agriculture, and the benefits have been passed on to consumers in the form of lower prices. Thus history justifies public spending on agricultural research. A comprehensive examination of data from many countries shows that in 1967-92, 81 percent of the world's population lived in countries where agricultural growth exceeded population growth. Moreover, that growth occurred as agricultural prices declined. Productivity gains are a dominant characteristic of agriculture for the period. Average productivity increased for land and labor. Moreover, agricultural productivity gains were greater than average productivity gains for the economy in 80 percent of the countries studied. Measuring the effects of technology choice on productivity is crucial to understanding the determinants of agricultural growth. After selectively reviewing applied production studies, Mundlak, Larson, and Crego conclude that the choice-of-technique method, which has its roots in Tinter's early production function studies, is best suited for examining the determinants of agricultural growth. Investments in technology have yielded large gains for agriculture, and the benefits have been passed on to consumers in the form of lower prices. Thus history justifies public spending on agricultural research. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to examine the determinants of agricultural growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Determinants of Agricultural Growth (RPO 679-03)
Financial liberalization and financial fragility by Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt( file )
3 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 62 libraries worldwide
Annotation
How dirty are "quick and dirty" methods of project appraisal? by Dominique Van de Walle( file )
4 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 62 libraries worldwide
April 1998 Routine quick-and-dirty methods of project appraisal can be so dirty in guiding project selection as to wipe out the net social gains from public investment. Routine quick-and-dirty methods of project appraisal can be so dirty in guiding project selection as to wipe out the net social gains from public investment, contend van de Walle and Gunewardena, illustrating their point with a case study of irrigation projects in Vietnam. They test a common quick-and-dirty method for estimating benefits from irrigation investments, using data for Vietnam. They compare the results with impacts assessed through econometric modeling of marginal returns, which allows for household and area heterogeneity using integrated household-level survey data. The quick-and-dirty method performs well in estimating average benefits nationally but can be misleading for some regions and, by ignoring heterogeneity, overestimates how much the poor gain. At moderate to high project cost levels, quick-and-dirty makes enough mistakes to eliminate the net benefits from public investment. When irrigating as little as 3 percent of Vietnam's nonirrigated land, the savings from the more data-intensive method are enough to cover the costs of the extra data required. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the welfare impacts of public spending. Dominique van de Walle may be contacted at dvandewalle@worldbank.org
The quality of bureaucracy and capital account policies by Chong-En Bai( file )
6 editions published in 2001 in English and held by 59 libraries worldwide
The more corrupt a country, the more likely it is to impose capital controls. As a country improves its public institutions over time, it tends to gradually liberalize its capital accounts. Removing capital controls prematurely could reduce rather than improve the country's economic efficiency. The extent of bureaucracy varies extensively across countries, but the quality of bureaucracy within a country changes more slowly than economic policies. Bai and Wei propose that the quality of bureaucracy may be an important structural determinant of open economy macroeconomic policies--especially the imposition or removal of capital controls. In their model, capital controls are an instrument of financial repression. They entail efficiency loss for the economy but also generate implicit revenue for the government. The results show that bureaucratic corruption translates into the government's reduced ability to collect tax revenues. Even if capital controls and financial repression are otherwise inefficient, the government still has to rely on them to raise revenues to provide public goods. Among the countries for which the authors could get relevant data, they find that the more corrupt ones are indeed more likely to impose capital controls, a pattern consistent with the model's prediction. To deal with possible reverse causality, they use the extent of corruption in a country's judicial system, and the degree of democracy, as the instrumental variables for bureaucratic corruption. The instrumental variable regressions show the same result: more corrupt countries are associated with more severe capital controls. The results suggest that as countries develop and improve their public institutions, reducing bureaucratic corruption over time, they will choose to gradually liberalize their capital accounts. Removing capital controls prematurely when forced by outside institutions to do so could reduce rather than improve their economic efficiency. This paper--a product of the Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the consequences of corruption and public governance. The authors may be contacted at baic@hku.hk or swei@worldbank.org
A measured approach to ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity : concepts, data, and the twin goals by Dean Jolliffe( Book )
2 editions published in 2015 in English and held by 42 libraries worldwide
In 2013, the World Bank Group adopted two new goals to guide its work: ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. More specifically, the goals are to reduce extreme poverty in the world to less than 3 percent by 2030, and to foster income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population in each country. While poverty reduction has been a mainstay of the World Bank's mission for decades, the Bank has now set a specific goal and timetable, and for the first time, the Bank has explicitly included a goal linked to ensuring that growth is shared by all. The discussion until now has centered primarily on articulating the new goals. This report, the latest in World Bank's Policy Research Report series, goes beyond that and lays out their conceptual underpinnings, discusses their relative strengths and weaknesses by contrasting them with alternative indicators, and proposes empirical approaches and requirements to track progress towards the goals. The report makes clear that the challenges posed by the World Bank Group's new stance extend not just to the pursuit of these goals but, indeed, to their very definition and empirical content. The report also argues that an improved data infrastructure, consisting of many elements including the collection of more and better survey data, is critical to ensure that progress towards these goals can be measured, and policies to help achieve them can be identified and prioritized
A gendered assessment of the brain drain by Frédéric Docquier( Book )
2 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
This paper updates and extends the Docquier-Marfouk data set on inter-national migration by educational attainment. The authors use new sources, homogenize definitions of what a migrant is, and compute gender-disaggregated indicators of the brain drain. Emigration stocks and rates are provided by level of schooling and gender for 195 source countries in 1990 and 2000. The data set can be used to capture the recent trend in women's skilled migration and to analyze its causes and consequences for developing countries. The findings show that women represent an increasing share of the OECD immigration stock and exhibit relatively higher rates of brain drain than men. The gender gap in skilled migration is strongly correlated with the gender gap in educational attainment at origin. Equating women's and men's access to education would probably reduce gender differences in the brain drain
Can China Continue Feeding Itself ? The Impact of Climate Change On Agriculture by Jinxia Wang( file )
1 edition published in 2008 in English and held by 0 libraries worldwide
Several studies addressing the supply and demand for food in China suggest that the nation can largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However, these studies do not consider the effects of climate change. This paper examines whether near future expected changes in climate are likely to alter this picture. The authors analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues using a cross section consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results of the Ricardian analysis demonstrate that global warming is likely to be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be very different in each region. The mid latitude region of China may benefit from warming but the southern and northern regions are likely to be damaged by warming. More precipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in the wet southeast. Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similar responses to precipitation but not to temperature. Warmer temperatures may benefit irrigated farms but they are likely to harm rainfed farms. Finally, seasonal effects vary and are offsetting. Although we were able to measure the direct effect of precipitation and temperature, we could not capture the effects of change in water flow which will be very important in China. Can China continue feeding itself if climate changes? Based on the empirical results, the likely gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset the losses that will occur to other farmers in China. If future climate scenarios lead to significant reductions in water, there may be large damages not addressed in this study.--Provided by publisher
 
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controlled identity World Bank. Policy Research Department

DECRG
World Bank. Development Economics Research Group
World Bank. Research Development Group
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