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Olekalns, Nils

Overview
Works: 2 works in 9 publications in 1 language and 21 library holdings
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Publications about Nils Olekalns
Publications by Nils Olekalns
Most widely held works by Nils Olekalns
Nowcasting, business cycle dating and the interpretation of new information when real-time data are available by Kevin Lee( Book )
8 editions published between 2008 and 2009 in English and Undetermined and held by 12 libraries worldwide
A canonical model is described which reflects the real time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with 'conventional' models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not available at the time. It is argued that conventional models are misspecified and misinterpret news. However, neither diagnostic tests applied to the conventional models nor typical impulse response analysis will be able to expose these deficiencies clearly. This is demonstrated through an analysis of quarterly US data 1968q4-2006q1. However, estimated real time models considerably improve out-of-sample forecasting performance, provide more accurate 'nowcasts' of the current state of the macroeconomy and provide more timely indicators of the business cycle. The point is illustrated through an analysis of the US recessions of 1990q3--1991q2 and 2001q--2001q4
Nowcasting, business cycle dating and the interpretation of new interpretation of new information when real-time data are available by Kevin Lee( Book )
1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
 
Languages
English (8)
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