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Cheung, Yin-Wong

Overview
Works: 185 works in 612 publications in 2 languages and 5,500 library holdings
Roles: Author, Editor
Classifications: HF1583, 337.5
Publication Timeline
Key
Publications about Yin-Wong Cheung
Publications by Yin-Wong Cheung
Most widely held works by Yin-Wong Cheung
The evolving role of Asia in global finance by Yin-Wong Cheung( file )
8 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 1,016 libraries worldwide
The process of Asias rise to a position of eminence in global finance has accelerated in the wake of the international financial crisis, posing new opportunities and challenges to both the Asian economies and the global financial and trade systems. This volume represents a significant new endeavour to explore and understand the dynamics created by this process of transition. Specifically, it addresses the following four contemporary themes of the evolving role of Asia in global finance: (a) real and financial interactions among economies and across markets, both within Asia and beyond; (b) regional monetary cooperation in Asia; (c) the decoupling debate over Asias evolving economic and financial ties with major industrial economies; and (d) the changing roles of domestic finance and capital flows in the developing Asian economies. It sheds light on various dimensions of Asias economy and finance, ranging from business cycles, exchange rate movements, regional policy coordination, domestic financial development, capital flows, and financial market behaviour. These analyses are pooled in a book that is a must read for market participants, policymakers and academics alike
The economic integration of Greater China real and financial linkages and the prospects for currency union by Yin-Wong Cheung( file )
7 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 929 libraries worldwide
The tremendous success of China's program of economic reform and the rapid integration of China into the global economy have prompted this study on the economic and financial integration between mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan -- a grouping sometimes referred to as Greater China
Asia and China in the global economy by Yin-Wong Cheung( file )
12 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 516 libraries worldwide
The volume represents a collection of papers that examine important topical themes related to the rise of China and Asia in the global economy. It offers many useful insights on several issues that are hotly debated in the international community, especially in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis. The contributors are renowned experts from academic institutions, central banks, and international organizations. Their analyses and points of view offer valuable insights for researchers and policymakers who are interested in the recent developments in China, Asia, and the global eco
The evolving role of China in the global economy ( file )
10 editions published between 2012 and 2013 in English and held by 491 libraries worldwide
Global interdependence, decoupling and recoupling by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
13 editions published between 2013 and 2014 in English and held by 224 libraries worldwide
"One lens through which to view global economic interdependence and the spillover of shocks is that of decoupling (and then recoupling). Decoupling between developed and developing countries can be seen in the strong economic performance of China and India relative to that of the United States and Europe in the early 2000s. Recoupling then took place as developing countries sank along with the developed world during the deepening financial crisis of 2008. This volume examines patterns of global economic interdependence and the propagation of shocks in an increasingly integrated world economy. The contributors discuss such topics as the transmission of exogenous shocks; causes of business cycle synchronicity; the differences between global and regional shocks; the South-South trade relationship and its effect on decoupling; vertical specialization and Mexico's manufacturing exports; growth prospects in China, the United States, and Europe after the financial crisis; and the evolving role of the U.S. dollar in international monetary architecture."--Publisher's website
China and Asia : economic and financial interactions by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
15 editions published between 2008 and 2013 in English and held by 167 libraries worldwide
This book places China in the Asian international economic context, suggesting that the importance of China has sometimes been misunderstood and comparing it with the earlier Japanese experiences in a new, refreshing way
Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties : are any fit to survive? by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
20 editions published between 2002 and 2004 in English and held by 106 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage. The canonical papers in this literature are by Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1988), who examined monetary and portfolio balance models. Succeeding works by Mark (1995) and Chinn and Meese (1995) focused on similar models. In this paper we re-assess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade: interest rate parity, productivity based models, and behavioral equilibrium exchange rate' models. The performance of these models is compared against a benchmark model the Dornbusch-Frankel sticky price monetary model. The models are estimated in error correction and first-difference specifications. Rather than estimating the cointegrating vector over the entire sample and treating it as part of the ex ante information set as is commonly done in the literature, we recursively update the cointegrating vector, thereby generating true ex ante forecasts. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the consistency' test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). No model consistently outperforms a random walk, by a mean squared error measure; however, along a direction-of-change dimension, certain structural models do outperform a random walk with statistical significance. Moreover, one finds that these forecasts are cointegrated with the actual values of exchange rates, although in a large number of cases, the elasticity of the forecasts with respect to the actual values is different from unity. Overall, model/specification/currency combinations that work well in one period will not necessarily work well in another period
How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates? by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
21 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and No Linguistic Content and held by 104 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper summarises the results of a survey of UK based foreign exchange dealers conducted in 1998. It addresses topics in three main areas: The microeconomic operation of the foreign exchange market; the beliefs of dealers regarding the importance, or otherwise, of macroeconomic fundamental factors in affecting exchange rates; microstructure factors in FX. We find that heterogeneity of traders' beliefs is evident from the results but that it is not possible to explain such disagreements in terms of institutional detail, rank or trading technique (e.g. technical analysts versus fundamentalists). As expected, non-fundamental factors are thought to dominate short horizon changes in exchange rates, but fundamentals are deemed important over much shorter horizons that the mainstream empirical literature would suggest. Finally, market norms' and behavioural phenomena are very strong in the FX market and appear to be key determinants of the bid-ask spread
Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
13 editions published between 1995 and 1997 in English and held by 94 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Exchange rate forecasts are generated using some popular monetary models of exchange rates in conjunction with several estimation techniques. We propose an alternative set of criteria for evaluating forecast rationality which entails the following requirements: the forecast and the actual series i) have the same order of integration, ii) are cointegrated, and iii) have a cointegrating vector consistent with long run unitary elasticity of expectations. When these conditions hold, we consider the forecasts to be consistent.' We find that it is fairly easy for the generated forecasts to pass the first requirement. However, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead horizon, most series and their respective forecasts do not appear cointegrated. Of the cointegrated pairs, the restriction of unitary elasticity of forecasts with respect to actual appears not to be rejected in general. The exception to this pattern is in the case of the error correction models in the longer subsample. Using the Horvath-Watson procedure, which imposes a unitary coefficient restriction, we find fewer instances of consistency, but a relatively higher proportion of the identified cases of consistency are found at the longer horizons
The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation by Yin-Wong Cheung( Computer File )
11 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 91 libraries worldwide
"We evaluate whether the Renminbi (RMB) is misaligned, relying upon conventional statistical methods of inference. A framework built around the relationship between relative price and relative output levels is used. We find that, once sampling uncertainty and serial correlation are accounted for, there is little statistical evidence that the RMB is undervalued. The result is robust to various choices of country samples and sample periods, as well as to the inclusion of control variables"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Are macroeconomic forecasts informative? : cointegration evidence from the ASA-NBER surveys by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
15 editions published between 1996 and 1999 in English and held by 87 libraries worldwide
Abstract: We examine the properties of the ASA-NBER forecasts for several US macroeconomic variables, specifically: (i) are the actual and forecast series integrated of the same order; (ii) are they cointegrated, and; (iii) is the cointegrating vector consistent with long run unitary elasticity of expectations with respect to the actual series. We also examine whether forecasts respond to error correction terms. Tests are applied to both final and preliminary versions of the data. We find that the Treasury bill rate, housing starts, industrial production, inflation and their forecasts are trend stationary. The corporate bond rate, GNP, the GNP deflator, unemployment and their forecasts are difference stationary. About half of the these pairs are cointegrated, with the unitary elasticity restriction seldom rejected. Similar results are obtained when using the originally-reported data
Traders, market microstructure, and exchange rate dynamics by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
13 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 85 libraries worldwide
Abstract: We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that: (i) The share of customer business, versus interbank business, has remained fairly constant; (ii) The channels by which transactions take place have changed, as electronically-brokered transactions have risen from 2% to 46% of total, mostly at the expense of transactions undertaken by traditional brokers; (iii) The single most widely- cited reason for deviating from the standard market convention on the bid-ask spread is a thin/hectic market; (iv) Half or more of market respondents believe that large players dominate in the dollar-pound and dollar-Swiss franc markets; and (v) 60% of respondents believe there is low predictability of exchange rates intraday. Even at medium and long run horizons, only a third of traders believe that there is high predictability
Market structure and the persistence of sectoral real exchange rates by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
13 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 81 libraries worldwide
Abstract: We examine the relationship between market structure and the persistence of U.S. dollar-based sectoral real exchange rates for fourteen OECD countries. Our empirical results based on disaggregated data suggest that differences in market structure significantly determine the rates at which deviations from sectoral purchasing power parity decay. Specifically, industries with a larger price-cost margin are found to exhibit slower parity reversion of their sectoral real exchange rates. Further, as the degree of intra-industry trade activity increases, sectoral real exchange rate persistence becomes more pronounced. These findings imply that an imperfectly competitive market structure contributes to the well-documented persistence in real exchange rates
Macroeconomic implications of the beliefs and behavior of foreign exchange traders by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
10 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 77 libraries worldwide
Abstract: We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that (i) technical trading best characterizes about 30% of traders, with this proportion rising from five years ago; (ii) news about macroeconomic variables is rapidly incorporated into exchange rates; (iii) the importance of individual macroeconomic variables shifts over time, although interest rates always appear to be important, and; (iv) economic fundamentals are perceived to be more important at longer horizons. The short run deviations of exchange rates from their fundamentals are attributed to excess speculation and institutional customer/hedge fund manipulation. Speculation is generally viewed positively, as enhancing market efficiency and liquidity, even though it exacerbates volatility. Central bank intervention does not appear to have a substantial effect, although there is general agreement that it increases volatility. Finally, traders do not view purchasing power parity as a useful concept, even though a significant proportion (40%) believe that it affects exchange rates at horizons of over six months
The Chinese economies in global context : the integration process and its determinants by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
10 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 64 libraries worldwide
"The linkages between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the other Chinese economies of Hong Kong and Taiwan are assessed, and compared against those with Japan and the US. We first characterize the time series behavior of variables corresponding to three criteria of integration, namely real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence that these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods between the PRC and all other economies, although they do not hold instantaneously. In general, the magnitude of the deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. Overall, however, Hong Kong exhibits indications of a more advanced level of integration with the PRC. We also find that evidence is surprisingly positive for integration with the US. We then turn to examining the determinants of the degree of integration. Regression results suggest that the degrees of financial and real integration depend upon the extent of capital controls, foreign direct investment linkages, as well as the magnitude of exchange rate volatility"--NBER website
Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP by Yin-Wong Cheung( Book )
10 editions published between 1995 and 1996 in English and held by 60 libraries worldwide
A more powerful version of the ADF test and a test that has trend stationarity as the null are applied to U.S. GNP. Simulated critical values generated from plausible trend and difference stationary models are used in order to minimize possible finite sample biases. The discriminatory power of the two tests is evaluated using alternative-specific rejection frequencies. For post-War quarterly data, these two tests do not provide a definite conclusion. However, when analyzing annual data over the 1869-1986 period, the unit root null is rejected, while the trend stationary null is not
China's current account and exchange rate by Yin-Wong Cheung( file )
16 editions published between 2007 and 2009 in English and held by 57 libraries worldwide
We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample, when using the 2006 vintage of the World Development Indicators. The economic magnitude of the mis-alignment is substantial -- on the order of 50 percent in log terms. However, the misalignment is typically not statistically significant, in the sense of being more than two standard errors away from the conditional mean. However, this finding disappears completely when using the most recent 2008 vintage of data; then the estimated undervaluation is on the order of 10 percent. Second, we find that Chinese multilateral trade flows respond to relative prices -- as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate -- but the relationship is not always precisely estimated. In addition, the direction of the effects is sometimes different from what is expected a priori. For instance, Chinese ordinary imports actually rise in response to a RMB depreciation; however, Chinese exports appear to respond to RMB depreciation in the expected manner, as long as a supply variable is included. In that sense, Chinese trade is not exceptional. Furthermore, Chinese trade with the United States appears to behave in a standard manner -- especially after the expansion in the Chinese manufacturing capital stock is accounted for. Thus, the China-US trade balance should respond to real exchange rate and relative income movements in the anticipated manner. However, in neither the case of multilateral nor bilateral trade flows should one expect quantitatively large effects arising from exchange rate changes. And, of course, these results are not informative with regard to the question of how a change in the RMB/USD exchange rate would affect the overall US trade deficit. Finally, we stress the fact that considerable uncertainty surrounds both our estimates of RMB misalignment and the responsiveness of trade flows to movements in exchange rates and output levels. In particular, the results for trade elasticities are sensitive to econometric specification, accounting for supply effects, and for the inclusion of time trends
An Empirical Model of Daily Highs and Lows by Yin-Wong Cheung( Computer File )
6 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 50 libraries worldwide
We construct an empirical model for daily highs and daily lows of US stock indexes based on the intuition that highs and lows do not drift apart over time. Our empirical results show that daily highs and lows of three main US stock price indexes are cointegrated. Data on openings, closings, and trading volume are found to offer incremental explanatory power for variations in highs and lows within the VECM framework. With all these variables, the augmented VECM models explain 40% to 50% of variations in daily highs and lows. The generalized impulse response analysis shows that the responses of daily highs and daily lows to the shocks depend on whether data on openings, closings, and trading volume are included in the analysis
A Reappraisal of the Border Effect on Relative Price Volatility by Yin-Wong Cheung( Computer File )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and German and held by 47 libraries worldwide
Engel and Rogers (1996) find that crossing the US-Canada border can considerably raise relative price volatility and that exchange rate fluctuations explain about one-third of the volatility increase. In re-evaluating the border effect, this study shows that cross-country heterogeneity in price volatility can lead to significant bias in measuring the border effect unless proper adjustment is made to correct it. The analysis explores the implication of symmetric sampling for border effect estimation. Moreover, using a direct decomposition method, two conditions governing the strength of the border effect are identified. In particular, the more dissimilar the price shocks are across countries, the greater the border effect will be. Decomposition estimates also suggest that exchange rate fluctuations actually account for a large majority of the border effect
Speculative Attacks A Laboratory Study in Continuous Time by Yin-Wong Cheung( Computer File )
5 editions published between 2006 and 2009 in English and held by 47 libraries worldwide
We examine speculative attacks in a controlled laboratory environment featuring continuous time, size asymmetries, and varying amounts of public information. Attacks succeeded in 233 of 344 possible cases. When speculators have symmetric size and access to information: (a) weaker fundamentals increase the likelihood of successful speculative attacks and hasten their onset, and (b) contrary to some theory, success is enhanced by public access to information about either the net speculative position or the fundamentals. The presence of a larger speculator further enhances success, and experience with large speculators increases small speculators' response to the public information. However, giving the large speculator increased size or better information does not significantly strengthen his impact
 
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Alternative Names
Cheung, Y.-W.
Cheung, Yin-Wong
Languages
English (230)
German (1)
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