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Aron, Janine

Overview
Works: 68 works in 217 publications in 1 language and 817 library holdings
Roles: Author, Editor
Classifications: HC905,
Publication Timeline
Key
Publications about Janine Aron
Publications by Janine Aron
Most widely held works by Janine Aron
South African economic policy under democracy ( Book )
15 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 154 libraries worldwide
South Africa experienced a momentous change of government from the Apartheid regime to its first democratic government in 1994. This text provides an up-to-date and comprehensive assessment of South Africa's economic policies and performance under democracy
A typology of foreign exchange auction markets in sub-Saharan Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
6 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 33 libraries worldwide
Foreign exchange auction markets in Sub-Saharan Africa : dynamic models for the auction exchange rates by Janine Aron( Book )
7 editions published in 1994 in English and held by 30 libraries worldwide
Asbestos and asbestos-related disease in South Africa by Jonathan Myers( Book )
1 edition published in 1987 in English and held by 29 libraries worldwide
Personal and corporate savings in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
9 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
Building institutions in post-conflict African economies by Janine Aron( Book )
7 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 23 libraries worldwide
Parallel markets, the foreign exchange auction, and exchange rate unification in Zambia by Janine Aron( Book )
8 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 22 libraries worldwide
Interest rate effects on output : evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
7 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 18 libraries worldwide
Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
4 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
South Africa experienced substantial rises in the ratios of consumption and household debt to income from 1983, for which conventional explanations in terms of income, income expectations, interest rates and wealth prove inadequate. This paper emphasizes the role of substantial financial liberalization, which is of interest for two reasons. The first is to help understand South Africa's low saving rate, an endemic problem. The second is that unlike the UK, Scandinavia, Mexico and other countries, South Africa's financial liberalization occurred without an asset price boom, thus illuminating the direct role of financial liberalization. Previous attempts to model financial liberalization are not fully satisfactory. Our methodological innovation is to treat financial liberalization as an unobservable, proxied by a spline function, and entering both consumption and debt equations, which are jointly estimated. We also clarify the multi-faceted effects of financial liberalization on consumption. The comprehensive solved-out consumption function uses our own constructed set of personal wealth estimates at market value and income forecasts from a forecasting equation (allowing underlying macro-fundamentals to enter the model). The empirical results corroborate the theory in the paper, confirming the importance for consumer spending of extensive financial liberalization, of fluctuations in a range of asset values and asset accumulation, and of income expectations. Results suggest that households largely pierce the corporate veil. The paper also throws important light on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in South Africa
Inflation and output forecasting for South Africa : monetary transmission implications by Janine Aron( Book )
4 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 13 libraries worldwide
Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa? by Janine Aron( Book )
4 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 13 libraries worldwide
Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modelling consumer price inflation. This study, the first of its kind for an emerging market country, investigates gains to inflation forecast accuracy by aggregating weighted forecasts of the sub-component price indices, versus forecasting the aggregate consumer price index itself. Rich multivariate equilibrium correction models employ general and sectoral information for ten sub-components, taking account of structural breaks and institutional changes. Model selection is over 1979-2003, with pseudo out-of-sample forecasts, four-quarters-ahead, generated to 2007. Aggregating the weighted forecasts of the sub-components does outperform the aggregate CPI forecasts, and also offers substantial gains over forecasting using benchmark naïve models. The analysis also contributes an improved understanding of sectoral inflationary pressures. This forecasting method should be more robust to the regular reweighting of the CPI index
Credit, housing collateral and consumption : evidence from the UK, Japan and the US ( Book )
5 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 12 libraries worldwide
The consumption behaviour of UK, US and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando-Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for UK and US but not Japanese households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption-to-income ratio shifted up in the UK and US as mortgage down-payment constraints eased and as the collateral role of housing wealth was enhanced by financial innovations, such as home equity loans. The estimated housing collateral effect is roughly similar in the US and UK, while land prices in Japan still have a negative effect on consumer spending. Together with evidence for negative real interest rate effects in the UK and US and positive ones in Japan, this suggests important differences in the transmission of monetary and credit shocks between Japan and the US, UK and other credit-liberalized economies
Political, economic and social institutions : a review of growth evidence by Janine Aron( Book )
7 editions published between 1997 and 1998 in English and held by 12 libraries worldwide
New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US by Janine Aron( Book )
6 editions published in 2010 in English and Undetermined and held by 11 libraries worldwide
Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator, are estimated for 1974-99 and subsequent pseudo out-of-sample forecasting performance is examined. Alternative forecasting approaches for different information sets are compared with benchmark univariate autoregressive models, and substantial out-performance is demonstrated. Three key ingredients to the out-performance are: including equilibrium correction terms in relative prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information criterion, commonly used in VARs to select lag length, with a 'parsimonious longer lags' (PLL) parameterisation. Forecast pooling or averaging also improves forecast performance
Estimates of personal sector wealth for South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
Modelling and Forecasting UK mortgage arrears and possessions by Janine Aron( Book )
5 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 10 libraries worldwide
This paper presents new models for aggregate UK data on mortgage possessions (foreclosures) and mortgage arrears (payment delinquencies). The innovations include the treatment of difficuly to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common latent variables estimated in a system of equations for arrears and possessions, for quarterly data over 1983-2009. A second innovation is the theory-justified use of an estimate of the proportion of mortgages in negative equity, based on an average debt to equity ratio, as one of the key drivers of possessions and arrears. A third is the systematic treatment of measurement bias in the months in arrears measures. Finally, the paper does not impose a proportional long-run relationship between possessions and arrears assumed in the previous UK literature. A range of economic forecast scenarios for forecasts to 2013 reveals the sensitivity of mortgage possessions and arrears to different economic conditions, highlighting potential risks faced by the UK and its mortgage lenders. A comprehensive review of data on arrears and possessions completes the paper
Review of monetary policy in South Africa: 1994-2004 by Janine Aron( Book )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 10 libraries worldwide
Some issues in modeling and forecasting inflation in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
8 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 9 libraries worldwide
Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the speed at which interest rates should fall, damaging growth. Our forecasting models for the new measure of producer price inflation suggest methodological lessons, and build in conflicting pressures on SA inflation from exchange rate depreciation, terms of trade shocks, collapsing oil, food and other commodity prices, and other shocks. Our US and SA forecasting models for consumer price inflation underline the methodological points, and suggest the usefulness of thinking about sectoral trends. Finally, we apply the sectoral approach to understanding the monetary policy implications of introducing a new CPI measure in SA that uses imputed rents rather than interest rates to capture housing costs
Inflation dynamics and trade openness by Janine Aron( Book )
5 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 9 libraries worldwide
Evolving openness to trade is hard to measure, despite its relevance to models of growth, inflation and exchange rates. Our innovative technique measures trade openness encompassing both observable trade policy (tariffs and surcharges) and unobservable trade policy (quotas and other nontariff barriers), capturing the latter by a smooth non-linear stochastic trend in a model for the share of manufactured imports in home demand for manufactured goods, controlling for the business cycle and exchange rate. The evidence for South Africa suggests that increased openness has significantly reduced the mean inflation rate and has reduced the exchange rate pass-through into wholesale prices
Monetary policy and inflation modeling in a more open economy in South Africa by Janine Aron( Book )
7 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 8 libraries worldwide
South Africa in the 1990s became globally more integrated after years of isolation. Opening the trade and capital accounts gave impetus to a monetary policy regime change to inflation targeting from 2000, after a costly transitional period of monetary mismanagement with low policy transparency. Changes in openness can, however, disrupt the inflation forecasting on which targeting monetary policies depend. This chapter demonstrates how the central bank's own producer price inflation equation in its core model can be improved by taking account of greater openness, using both innovative time-series openness measures and a more conventional measure. The model has a greatly improved fit and stability over longer samples when also including the real exchange rate and the interest rate differential (making explicit the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission) and asymmetric food price inflation. Moreover, there is a role for the level of the output gap rather than simply a short-run effect, as in the central bank's model. This helps mitigate the arguments in current South African debate regarding the apparent unconcern of inflation targeting policy for the level of economic activity
 
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