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National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, Estados Unidos)

Works: 533 works in 534 publications in 1 language and 1,506 library holdings
Genres: Periodicals  Conference proceedings 
Classifications: HB172.5, 339
Publication Timeline
Publications about National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, Estados Unidos)
Publications by National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, Estados Unidos)
Most widely held works by National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, Estados Unidos)
NBER macroeconomics annual by Mass.) National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge( file )
in English and held by 31 libraries worldwide
Indicator variables for optimal policy by Lars E. O Svensson( Book )
2 editions published between 2000 and 2001 in English and held by 6 libraries worldwide
The optimal weights on indicators in models with partial information about the state of the economy and forward-looking variables are derived and interpreted, both for equilibria under discretion and under commitment. The private sector is assumed to have information about the state of the economy that the policymaker does not possess. Certainty-equivalence is shown to apply, in the sense that optimal policy reactions to optimally estimated states of the economy are independent of the degree of uncertainty. The usual separation principle does not hold, since the estimation of the state of the economy is not independent of optimization and is in general quite complex. We present a general characterization of optimal filtering and control in settings of this kind, and discuss an application of our methods to the problem of the optimal use of 'real-time' macroeconomic data in the conduct of monetary policy
Foreign tax policies and economic growth : a conference report of the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Brookings Institution by National Bureau of Economic Research( Book )
1 edition published in 1966 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Ability tracking, school competition, and the distribution of educational benefits by Dennis N Epple( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
To study the effects of ability grouping on school competition, we develop a theoretical and computational model of tracking in public and private schools. We examine tracking's consequences for the allocation of students of differing abilities and income within and between public and private schools. Private schools tend to attract the most able and wealthiest students, and rarely track in equilibrium. Public sector schools can maximize attendance by tracking students. Public schools retain a greater proportion of higher-ability students by tracking, but lose more wealthy, lower-ability students to the private sector. Consequently, socioeconomic status is a predictor of track assignment in public schools. For the entire population, public-sector tracking has small aggregate effects on achievement and welfare, but results in significant redistribution from lower- to higher-ability students
Public versus secret reserve prices in eBay auctions : results from a Pokémon field experiment by Rama Katkar( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Sellers in eBay auctions have the opportunity to choose both a public minimum bid amount and a secret reserve price. We ask, empirically, whether the seller is made better or worse off by setting a secret reserve above a low minimum bid, versus the option of making the reserve public by using it as the minimum bid level. In a field experiment, we auction 50 matched pairs of Pokemon cards on eBay, half with secret reserves and half with equivalently high public minimum bids. We find that secret reserve prices make us worse off as sellers, by reducing the probability of the auction resulting in a sale, deterring serious bidders from entering the auction, and lowering the expected transaction price of the auction. We also present evidence that some sellers choose to use secret reserve prices for reasons other than increasing their expected auction prices
Hedge funds with style by Stephen J Brown( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
The popular perception is that hedge funds follow a reasonably well defined market-neutral investment style. While this long-short investment strategy may have characterized the first hedge funds, today hedge funds are a reasonably heterogeneous group. They are better defined in terms of their freedom from the constraints imposed by the Investment Company Act of 1940, than they are by the particular style of investment. We study the monthly return history of hedge funds over the period 1989 through to January 2000 and find that there are in fact a number of distinct styles of management. We find that differences in investment style contribute about 20 per cent of the cross sectional variability in hedge fund performance. This result is consistent across the years of our sample and is robust to the way in which we determine investment style. We conclude that appropriate style analysis and style management are crucial to success for investors looking to invest in this market
The equivalence of the Social Security's trust fund portfolio allocation and capital income tax policy by Kent A Smetters( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
This paper proves that the stock-bond portfolio choice of the Social Security trust fund is equivalent in general equilibrium to the tax treatment of capital income by the non-social security part of government. A larger [smaller] share of social security's portfolio invested in stocks is equivalent to a larger [smaller] symmetric linear tax on risky capital income returns received on assets held by private agents. This general-equilibrium equivalency holds despite the fact that the stock-bond portfolio choice is not neutral in the presence of several market frictions. These frictions include incomplete markets between generations as well as the presence of endogenously binding borrowing constraints within generations. To the extent that trust fund investment in equities is used to improve market efficiency in the context of these frictions, the equivalent capital income tax rate can be interpreted as a Lindahl tax. This tax gives a decentralized way of achieving the same command-economy outcome that would occur if the government directly controlled part of the capital stock. General-equilibrium simulation results, using a new overlapping-generations model with aggregate uncertainty, suggest that investing the entire US Social Security trust fund in equities is equivalent to increasing the capital income tax rate by about 4 percentage points
Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models : a comparison of the SDF and beta methods by Ravi Jagannathan( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
The stochastic discount factor (SDF) method provides a unified general framework for econometric analysis of asset pricing models. It has recently been pointed out that the generality of the SDF method may come at the cost of estimation efficiency. We show that there is no need for this concern. The SDF method is as efficient as the classical beta method for estimating risk premia. In addition, the SDF method has an advantage -- the classical beta method, unlike the SDF method, substantially understates the effect of sampling errors when the estimated unanticipated changes in macroeconomic variables are used as pervasive factors
The social consequences of housing by Edward L Glaeser( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Abstract: The social capital literature documents a connection between social connection and economic outcomes of interest ranging from government quality to economic growth. Popular authors suggest that housing and architecture are important determinants of social connection. This paper examines the connection between housing structure and social connection. We find that residents of large apartment buildings are more likely to be socially connected with their neighbors, perhaps because the distance between neighbors is lower in apartment buildings. Apartment residents are less involved in local politics, presumably because they are less connected with the public infrastructure and space that surrounds them. Street crime (robbery, auto theft) is also more common around big apartment buildings and we believe that this also occurs because of there is less connection between people in apartments and the streets that surround them
Asset location for retirement savers by James M Poterba( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
This paper uses data on actual returns on taxable bonds, tax-exempt bonds, and a small sample of equity mutual funds over the 1962-1998 period to compare two asset location strategies for retirement savers. The first strategy gives priority to holding equities, through equity mutual funds, in a saver's tax-deferred account, while the second strategy gives priority to holding fixed-income investments in the tax-deferred account. We consider high-income taxable individual investors who saved in each year and invested in one of actively-managed funds in our sample. Over the thirty-seven year span that we consider, such savers would have accumulated a larger stock of wealth if they had held their equity mutual fund in their tax-deferred account than if they had held the fund in a conventional taxable form. The explanation for this apparent contradiction of the often-stated bonds in the tax-deferred account' prescription has two parts. First, many equity mutual funds impose substantial tax burdens on their investors. This raises the effective tax rate on investing in equities through mutual funds rather than in a buy-and-hold personal portfolio. Second, taxable investors who wish to hold fixed income assets can do so by holding tax-exempt bonds as well as by holding taxable bonds. The interest rate differential between taxable and tax-exempt bonds suggests that the effective tax rate on fixed income investments may be lower than the statutory tax rate for high-income investors
Macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings : evidence from four countries by Michael Knetter( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors. We show that real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways, making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory. Interestingly, no such ambiguity is evidenced in the data. Examining the filing patterns of the four major users of AD law during the 1980--98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real GDP growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings. Bilateral filing data indicate that a one-standard deviation real appreciation of the domestic currency increases filings by 33% while a one-standard deviation fall in domestic real GDP increases filings by 23%
The impact of grading standards on student achievement, educational attainment, and entry-level earnings by Julian R Betts( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Despite recent theoretical work and proposals from educational reformers, there is little empirical work on the effects of higher grading standards. In this paper we use data from the High School and Beyond survey to estimate the effects of grading standards on student achievement, educational attainment, and entry level earnings. We consider not only how grading standards affect average outcomes but also how they affect the distribution of educational gains by skill level and race/ethnicity. We find that higher standards raise test scores throughout the distribution of achievement, but that the increase is greatest toward the top of the test score distribution. Higher standards have no positive effect on educational attainment, however, and indeed have negative effects on high school graduation among blacks and Hispanics. We suggest a relative performance hypothesis to explain how higher standards may reduce educational attainment even as they increase educational achievement
Market responses to interindustry wage differentials by George J Borjas( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
This paper examines the link between interindustry wage differentials and subsequent growth of industry variables such as employment, GDP and labor productivity. We find that industries that paid higher than average wages in 1959 experienced significantly lower employment growth and GDP growth in the subsequent 30 to 40 years, while at the same time experiencing higher-than-average growth in the capital-labor ratio and in labor productivity. We argue that the evidence is best explained by a non-competitive model of the interindustry wage structure, as both firms and the market respond to the wage rigidity implied by the long-run persistence of the interindustry wage structure
Foreign direct investors in three financial crises by Robert E Lipsey( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
In each of three financial and exchange rate crises, Latin America in 1982, Mexico in 1994, and East Asia in 1997, direct investment inflows into the affected countries have behaved differently from other forms of investment, and U.S. manufacturing affiliates have behaved differently from other firms in their host countries. Inflows of direct investment into the crisis countries have been much more stable than inflows of portfolio or other forms of investment. U.S. manufacturing affiliates have switched their sales from host-country to export markets to a greater extent and for a longer period than other host-country firms. They have switched markets partly by more sharply curtailing their local sales, at least in terms of U.S. dollar values. In the cases where we have the data, U.S. affiliates have also tended to sustain their capital expenditure levels during the crises
Gold into base metals : productivity growth in the People's Republic of China during the reform period by Alwyn Young( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
With minimal sleight of hand, it is possible to transform the recent growth experience of the People's Republic of China from the extraordinary into the mundane. Systematic understatement of inflation by enterprises accounts for 2.5% growth per annum in the non-agricultural economy during the reform period (1978-1998). The usual suspects, i.e. rising participation rates, improvements in educational attainment, and the transfer of labour out of agriculture, account for most of the remainder. The productivity performance of the non-agricultural economy during the reform period is respectable, but not outstanding. To the degree that the reforms have improved efficiency, these gains may lie principally in agriculture
Improving school accountability measures by Thomas J Kane( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
A growing number of states are using annual school-level test scores as part of their school accountability systems. We highlight an under-appreciated weakness of that approach the imprecision of school-level test score means -- and propose a method for better discerning signal from noise in annual school report cards. For an elementary school of average size in North Carolina, we estimate that 28 percent of the variance in 5th grade reading scores is due to sampling variation and about 10 percent is due to other non-persistent sources. More troubling, we estimate that less than half of the variance in the mean gain in reading performance between 4th and 5th grade is due to persistent differences between schools. We use these estimates of the variance components in an empirical Bayes framework to generate filtered' predictions of school performance, which have much greater predictive value than the mean for a single year. We also identify evidence of within-school heterogeneity in classroom level gains, which suggests the importance of teacher effects
Distortion costs of taxing wealth accumulation : income versus estate taxes by Douglas Holtz-Eakin( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Recently, attention has focused on the estate tax. To date, however, the debate over estate taxes has been nearly devoid of standard considerations of deadweight loss. We develop a framework for computing the deadweight loss of a revenue-neutral switch from an estate tax to a capital income tax, focusing on the potential lifetime behavioral responses in anticipation of paying the estate tax, while requiring relatively few parameters to estimate. We conclude that eliminating the estate tax and replacing the revenue with that from a capital income tax will likely enhance economic efficiency. Specifically, using our baseline parameter estimates we estimate that the mean decrease in deadweight loss is $0.018 per dollar of wealth. There is, however, considerable heterogeneity in the estimated impact. Importantly, our estimates are based on data that do not contain the 'super-rich' who are most highly affected by the estate tax
The declining quality of teachers by Darius Lakdawalla( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Concern is often voiced about the declining quality of American schoolteachers. This paper shows that, while the relative quality of teachers is declining, this decline is a result of technical change, which improves the specialized knowledge of skilled workers outside teaching, but not the general knowledge of schoolteachers. This raises the price of skilled teachers, but not their productivity. Schools respond by lowering the relative skill of teachers and raising teacher quantity. On the other hand, college professors, who teach specialized knowledge, are predicted to experience increases in skill relative to schoolteachers. Finally, the lagging productivity of primary schools is predicted to raise the unit cost of primary education. These predictions appear consistent with the data. Analysis of US Census microdata suggests that, from the 1900 birth cohort to the 1950 birth cohort, the relative schooling of teachers has declined by about three years, and the human capital of teachers may have declined in value relative to that of college graduates by as much as thirty percent, but the teacher-student ratio has more than doubled over the last half century in a wide array of developed countries. Moreover, the per student cost of primary school education in the US has also risen dramatically over the past 50 years. Finally, the human capital of college professors has risen by nearly thirty percent relative to schoolteachers
Commercial policy with altruistic voters by Julio Rotemberg( Book )
1 edition published in 2000 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
This paper considers a specific factor model with two sectors in which agents are altruistic towards domestic residents. I show that, even if the degree of altruism is small, direct democracy leads to commercial policies that are biased against trade as long as the mobile factor is unbiased in the sense of Jones and Ruffin (1977) and the income of the owners of the factor which is specific to the import competing sector is lower than the income of the owners of the other specific factor. Tariffs may be preferred to subsidies by the median voter if subsidies require that beneficiaries spend a fixed cost to demonstrate that they are entitled to these subsidies and there is heterogeneity in the size of producers. Lastly, I construct a model of indirect democracy where legislators can receive campaign contributions from potential lobbyists. Even if campaign contributions are positive in equilibrium, the tariffs that emerge from votes taken after lobbying can represent the wishes of the median voter. In this model, campaign contributions do not buy votes. Instead, consistent with what is claimed in the qualitative literature, they buy access to legislators' time. The model is also consistent with the evidence showing that campaign contributions and lobbying activity are directed mainly at legislators who already agree with their contributors and their lobbyists
Links and hyperlinks : an empirical analysis of internet portal alliances, 1995-1999 by Dan Elfenbein( Book )
1 edition published in 2001 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
This paper examines the structure of over 100 alliances by Internet portals from 1995 to 1999. These alliances were an attractive empirical testing ground because of the large number and heterogeneous nature of the contracts, the high standards for disclosure in the industry, and the careful delineation of ownership, control, exclusivity, and other provisions in the contracts. The division of ownership and allocation of control rights displayed patterns consistent with the predictions in the incomplete contracting literature. Similarly, the exclusivity of the agreements appeared to vary, at least weakly, with the value of the product or service being made available to the portal, consistent with the licensing literature. In other cases, particularly in regard to the differing allocation of ownership and control and the varying completeness of the contracts, the empirical patterns indicated a more complex world than the one that theory led us to anticipate
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