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National Bureau of Economic Research (Estados Unidos)

Works: 1,969 works in 1,974 publications in 1 language and 2,638 library holdings
Genres: History  Patents 
Roles: Editor
Classifications: HG538, 332.4973
Publication Timeline
Publications about National Bureau of Economic Research (Estados Unidos)
Publications by National Bureau of Economic Research (Estados Unidos)
Most widely held works by National Bureau of Economic Research (Estados Unidos)
A monetary history of the United States, 1867-1960 by Milton Friedman( Book )
2 editions published between 1971 and 1993 in English and held by 9 libraries worldwide
Writing in the June 1965 issue of theEconomic Journal, Harry G. Johnson begins with a sentence seemingly calibrated to the scale of the book he set himself to review: "The long-awaited monetary history of the United States by Friedman and Schwartz is in every sense of the term a monumental scholarly achievement--monumental in its sheer bulk, monumental in the definitiveness of its treatment of innumerable issues, large and small . . . monumental, above all, in the theoretical and statistical effort and ingenuity that have been brought to bear on the solution of complex and subtle economic issu
Effects of air quality regulation on decisions of firms in polluting industries by Randy A Becker( Book )
2 editions published between 1995 and 1997 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
This paper examines unintended effects of air quality regulation on decisions of major polluters, using plant data for 1963 to 1992. A key regulatory tool since 1978 is the annual designation of county air quality attainment status, where non-attainment status triggers specific equipment requirements for" new and existing plants. We find, in the later years of regulation, that, ceteris paribus, non-attainment status reduces expected births in polluting industries by 40-50%, resulting in a shift of polluting activity to cleaner, less populated attainment areas. Starting in the 1970s effects appear first for industries with bigger plant sizes and then, within industries, first for corporate plants relative to the much smaller non-affiliate, or single plant firm sector. In all industries, non-affiliates face less regulation than the bigger corporate plants, resulting in a permanent shift away from corporate plant production in some industries. Older plants benefit from grandfathering provisions greatly enhancing survival probabilities. Finally, the negotiation and permitting process under regulation appears to induce much greater up-front investments by new plants, so that, in non-attainment areas, regulation induces 50-100% increases in initial plant sizes compared to attainment areas. But for plants over 10 years of age there are no size differences
Alternative estimates of productivity growth in the NIC's : a comment on the findings of Chang-Tai Hsieh by Alwyn Young( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
Dual estimates of productivity growth by Chang-Tai Hsieh have raised questions about the accuracy of the East Asian national accounts, suggesting that productivity growth in the NICs, particularly Singapore, may have been substantially higher than previously estimated. This paper shows that once one corrects for computational and methodological errors, dual estimates, using Hsieh's own data, are not that far removed from the results implied by primal sources. Further, Hsieh's criticisms of the accuracy of the national accounts capital formation figures are shown to be invalid. Finally, other data exist which support the picture of declining real rentals painted by the national accounts capital formation figures
Consumption demand by Orazio P Attanasio( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Consumption is the largest component of GDP. Since the 1950s, the life cycle and the permanent income models have constituted the main analytical tools to the study of consumption behavior, both at the micro and at the aggregate levels. Since the late 1970s the literature has focused on versions of the model that incorporate the hypothesis of Rational Expectations and a rigorous treatment of uncertainty. In this paper, I survey the most recent contribution and assess where the life cycle model stands. My reading of the evidence and of recent developments leads me to stress two points: (i) the model can only be tested and estimated using a flexible specification of preferences and individual level data; (ii) it is possible to construct versions of the model that are not rejected by the data. One of the main problems of the approach used in the literature to estimate preferences is the lack of a consumption function.' A challenge for future research is to use preference parameter estimates to construct such functions
Race and home ownership, 1900 to 1990 by William J Collins( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
The historical evolution of racial differences in income in the 20th century United States has been examined intensively by economists, but the evolution of racial differences in wealth has been examined far less. This paper uses IPUMS data to study trends in racial differences in home ownership since 1900. At the turn of the century approximately 20 percent of black adult males (ages 20 to 64) owned their homes, compared with 46 percent of white men, a gap of 26 percentage points. By 1990, the black home ownership rate had increased to 52 percent and the racial gap had fallen to 19.5 percentage points. All of the long-term rise in the rate of black home ownership, and almost all of the corresponding long-term decline in the racial gap, occurred after 1940, with the majority of both changes concentrated in the 1960 to 1980 period. We also use the IPUMS to study trends in race differences in the incidence of mortgages, and in the value of owner-occupied housing
Applying behavioral economics to the challenge of reducing cocaine abuse by Stephen T Higgins( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
This paper focuses on potential contributions of behavioral economics to reducing cocaine abuse. More specifically, this paper underscores the fundamental role of reinforcement in the genesis and maintenance of cocaine use and explores how reinforcement and consumer-demand theory might be translated into effective strategies for reducing cocaine use. A broad range of relevant research findings are discussed, including preclinical studies conducted with laboratory animals, laboratory and treatment-outcome studies conducted with cocaine abusers, and large epidemiological studies conducted with national samples of the U.S. population
Why do economists disagree about policy? : the roles of beliefs about parameters and values by Victor R Fuchs( Book )
1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
This paper reports the results of surveys of specialists in labor economics and public economics at 40 leading research universities in the United States. Respondents provided opinions of policy proposals; quantitative best estimates and 95% confidence intervals for economic parameters; answers to values questions regarding income redistribution, efficiency versus equity, and individual versus social responsibility; and their political party identification. We find considerable disagreement among economists about policy proposals. Their positions on policy are more closely related to their values than to their estimates of relevant economic parameters or to their political party identification. Average best estimates of the economic parameters agree well with the ranges summarized in surveys of relevant literature, but the individual best estimates are usually widely dispersed. Moreover, economists, like experts in many fields, appear more confident of their estimates than the substantial cross-respondent variation in estimates would warrant. Finally although the confidence intervals in general appear to be too narrow, respondents whose best estimates are farther from the median tend to give wider confidence intervals for those estimates
Consumer beliefs and buyer and seller behavior in the vehicle inspection market by Thomas N Hubbard( Book )
1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Moral hazard exists in diagnosis-cure' markets because sellers have an incentive to" shade their reports of buyers' condition to increase the short-run demand for the treatments they" supply. The California vehicle emission inspection market offers a rare opportunity to examine" how incentives operate in such markets. This paper investigates why sellers help vehicles pass" inspections, focusing on multiperiod mechanisms such as those in reputation models. I show that" the demand individual firms face is sensitive to inspection outcomes. Consumers are 30% more" likely to return to a firm at which they previously passed than one at which they previously" failed. If, over the long run, an independent garage fails one additional vehicle per month decreases demand by 5.6 inspections per month on the average. This figure is lower for service" stations and new car dealers. Consumers' behavior is consistent with a learning model in which" they have diffuse initial priors regarding the probability they fail at individual firms Bayesian update using two to three inspection outcomes at each firm
The benefits of privatization : evidence from Mexico by Rafael La Porta( Book )
1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Criticisms of privatization have centered around the possibility that the observed higher profitability of privatized companies comes at the expense of the rest of society. In this paper we focus on two of the most likely channels for social losses: (1) increased prices as firms capitalize on the market power; and (2) layoffs and lower wages as firms seek to roll back generous labor contracts. Using data for all 218 non-financial privatizations that took place in Mexico between 1983 and 1991 we find that privatized firms quickly bridge the pre-privatization performance gap with industry-matched control groups. For example, privatization is followed by a 24 percentage point increase in the ratio of operating income to sales. We roughly decompose those gains in profitability as follows: 10 percent of the increase is due to higher product prices; 33 percent of the increase represents a transfer from laid-off workers; and productivity gains account for the residual 57 percent. Transfers from society to the firm are partially offset by taxes which absorb slightly over half the gains in operating income. Finally, we also find evidence indicating that deregulation is associated with faster convergence to industry benchmarks
Capturing technological opportunity via Japan's star scientists : evidence from Japanese firms' biotech patents and products by Lynne G Zucker( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Using detailed data on biotechnology in Japan, we find that identifiable collaborations between particular university star scientists and firms have a large positive impact on firms' research roductivity, increasing the average firm's biotech patents by 34 percent development by 27 percent, and products on the market by 8 percent as of 1989-1990. However there is little evidence of geographically localized knowledge spillovers. In early industry formation, star scientists holding tacit knowledge required to practice recombinant DNA (genetic engineering) were of great economic value, leading to incentives motivating their participation in technology transfer. In Japan, the legal and institutional context implies that firm scientists work in the stars' university laboratories in contrast to America where the stars are more likely to work in the firm's labs. As a result, star collaborations in Japan are less localized around their research universities so that the universities' local economic development impact is lessened. Stars' scientific productivity is increased less during collaborationswith firms in Japan as compared to the U.S
Optimal fiscal and monetary policy by V. V Chari( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
We provide an introduction to optimal fiscal and monetary policy using the primal approach to optimal taxation. We use this approach to address how fiscal and monetary policy should be set over the long run and over the business cycle. We find four substantive lessons for policymaking: Capital income taxes should be high initially and then roughly zero; tax rates on labor and consumption should be roughly constant; state-contingent taxes on assets should be used to provide insurance against adverse shocks; and monetary policy should be conducted so as to keep nominal interest rates close to zero. We begin optimal taxation in a static context. We then develop a general framework to analyze optimal fiscal policy. Finally, we analyze optimal monetary policy in three commonly used models of money: a cash-credit economy, a money-in-the-utility-function economy
Real exchange rate misalignments and growth by Ofair Razin( Book )
1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment is now a standard concept in international macroeconomic theory and policy. However, there is neither a consensus indicator of misalignment, nor an agreed upon methodology for constructing such an indicator. This paper constructs an indicator of RER misalignment for a large sample of developed and developing countries. This indicator is based on a well-structured but simple extension of an IS-LM model of an open economy. The paper then uses regression analysis to explore whether RER misalignments are related to country growth experiences. Interestingly the work finds that there are important non-linearities in the relationship. Only very high over-valuations" appear to be associated with slower economic growth, while moderate to high (but not very high) under-valuations appear to be associated with more rapid economic growth
Selection, marketing, and Medicaid managed care ( Book )
1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
In several states, the Medicaid program allows beneficiaries a choice among multiple managed care plans and traditional Medicaid. This paper uses data from a survey of New York City Medicaid beneficiaries enrolled in conventional Medicaid and in 5 Medicaid managed care plans to study the effect of plan selection on measures of satisfaction with care, access to a regular source of care, and utilization of ambulatory and emergency room services. We use information on health status to evaluate selection on observable characteristics; variation in geographic patterns of enrollment to assess selection on unobservable characteristics; and survey responses to questions about source of information about a plan to study selection responses to plan marketing. We find that managed care enrollees differed from those who stayed in traditional Medicaid on both observable and unobservable characteristics. Adjusting for population differences reduced the positive effect of managed care on satisfaction with care and eliminated the apparent utilization savings from managed care, but did not reduce the positive effect of managed care on access to regular care. Enrollees in different managed care plans did not differ substantially in terms of their observable health-related characteristics, but did, however, on unobservable characteristics in ways that affected measures of satisfaction, access, and utilization. Finally, we find that enrollees who learned about plans from plan representatives were healthier than those who learned about plans from city income support staff. This suggests that marketing practices can be a contributor to selection. Differences in marketing, however, also had direct effects on patterns of use of health services that should be considered in making marketing policy decisions
Changing pensions in cross-section and panel data : analysis with employer provided plan descriptions by Alan L Gustman( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
This study analyzes changes in the value of defined benefit (DB) pension plans over time. It uses summary plan descriptions provided by the employers of respondents to the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) in 1983 and in 1989, applying them to similar earnings histories. Pension changes between 1990 and 1995 are also analyzed, using employer plan descriptions for large firms published by the Watson Wyatt Company. Substantial changes are found in pension values and pension accruals between the two SCF cross-sections. For example, the median value of DB plans at age 55 is 40 percent higher in 1989 than in 1983. Also, early retirement age falls over the time period. Because there are important changes in the composition of the pensions in each cross-section, those who are covered by the same plan in both years experience smaller changes than are suggested by comparing cross-section data from two different time periods. Nevertheless, those who are continuously covered by the same pension also experience important pension changes over the period. For example, a fifth of those continuously covered by a defined benefit plan experiences a substantial change in early retirement date and early retirement benefits. In addition, subgroups of continuously covered workers experience pension changes in opposite directions. These changes will have a substantial influence on retirement behavior, but are dampened when comparing the differences over time in the means and medians of plan features and plan values. Using the data from Watson Wyatt on the pensions offered by thirty-nine of the fifty largest companies, we also find similar evidence of important changes over the period 1990 to 1995. Again a sizable minority of firms experience very large changes in their plans. These findings suggest that changes in successive cross-sections of pensions will exaggerate the changes in continuing plans. Nevertheless, substantial errors will be introduced into retirement studies if pension incentives and pension values a
Procompetitive market access by Kala Krishna( Book )
1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
The view that U.S. businesses are being unfairly hurt by barriers to access in foreign markets has raised demands for market access requirements (MARs) from within U.S. industry and government alike. We show that, contrary to the prevailing wisdom of the recent literature, MARs can be implemented in a procompetitive manner. The basic idea is that the requirement must be implemented in a way that provides the right incentives for increasing aggregate output or lowering prices. We provide two examples to illustrate this point. In the context of a Cournot duopoly, we show that an implementation scheme in which the U.S. firm receives a pre-announced subsidy if the market share target is met leads to increased aggregate output. In a second example, we show that a MAR on an imported intermediate input can lead not only to increased imports of the intermediate good, but also to increased output in the final good market using the input. The intuition is that increasing output of the final good helps to make the MAR less binding and this reduces the marginal cost of production in the final good market. Thus our results buttress the point made in Krishna, Roy and Thursby (1997) that the effects of MARs depend crucially on the details of their implementation
Has job security vanished in large corporations? by Steven G Allen( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
The prevailing wisdom in media accounts is that job stability has vanished, especially for those in large corporations. Academic studies of job stability have found little difference between the 1990s and earlier decades, but these studies have not been able to focus on large firms. This paper provides the first detailed analysis of job stability in large corporations in the 1990s using a sample of 51 firms that are clients of Watson Wyatt Worldwide. We find that mean tenure and the percentage of employees with 10 or more years of service have actually increased in our sample. Even in large firms with shrinking employment, the odds that a worker would be with the same employer five years later were higher than the same odds for the labor market as a whole. There is no evidence that mid-career employees have been singled out in downsizing decisions; their turnover rate is the same in both growing and downsizing firms. Regression analysis shows that the impact of downsizing is still being borne by the most junior workers and that there is no evidence that rising wage differentials by experience are encouraging firms to substitute junior for senior workers
Trade-induced investment-led growth by Richard E Baldwin( Book )
2 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
This paper presents five theoretical openness-and-growth links that can account for trade-induced investment-led growth. The links are all demonstrated with neoclassical growth models developed in the context of trade models that allow for imperfect competition and scale economies. This sort of old-growth-theory-in-a-new-trade-model has not been thoroughly explored in the literature since the profession skipped from old-growth-old-trade models straight to new-growth-new- trade models. Nonetheless, such models are necessary to explain several key aspects of the econometric evidence on trade and growth. For example, cross-country data suggests that openness influences growth only via its effect on investment, and suggests that openness promotes investment in all countries whatever the capital-intensive of their exports (contrary to predictions of the old-growth-old-trade models)
Does favorable tax-treatment of housing reduce equipment investment? by Ben Broadbent( Book )
1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
It is often argued that low tax rates on owner-occupied housing divert investment from equipment. This paper demonstrates that if people are heterogeneous in their propensity to save, and if there are constraints on borrowing, favorable tax treatment of owner-occupied housing up to a certain value increases equipment investment. This is because low housing taxes encourage renters to become owner-occupiers, and this leads existing owner-occupiers to shift their portfolio of other assets from rental housing to equipment
A re-examination of the conglomerate merger wave in the 1960s : an internal capital markets view by R. Glenn Hubbard( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
One possible explanation that bidding firms earned positive abnormal returns in diversifying acquisitions in the 1960s is that internal capital markets were expected to overcome the information deficiencies of the less developed capital markets. Examining 392 bidder firms during the 1960s, we find the highest bidder returns when financially unconstrained' buyers acquire constrained' targets. This result holds while controlling for merger terms and for different proxies used to classify firms facing costly external financing. We also find that bidders generally retain target management, suggesting that management may have provided company-specific operational information, while the bidder provided capital-budgeting expertise
It's not about the money : why natural experiments don't work on the rich by Austan Goolsbee( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 2 libraries worldwide
An influential literature on the effects of marginal tax rates on the behavior of the rich has claimed that the elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net of tax share is very high possibly exceeding one. These high estimated elasticities imply that cutting taxes on the rich does not lose much revenue possibly increases it and that progressivity generates a large amount of deadweight loss. To identify this elasticity, these studies have conducted natural experiments' comparing the rich to other income groups and assuming that they are the same except for changes in their tax rates. This paper tests the natural experiment assumption using alternative data on the compensation of a panel of several thousand corporate executives and finds it to be false. Relatively, the very rich have incomes which trend upward at a faster rate are more sensitive to economic conditions, and are more likely to be in a form whose timing can be shifted in the short run. Interpreted broadly, these facts might reduce existing elasticity estimates by as much as 75%. The paper also suggests ways of improving existing methods
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