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National Bureau of Economic Research (Estados Unidos)

Works: 2,025 works in 2,042 publications in 1 language and 3,533 library holdings
Genres: History  Conference papers and proceedings  Economic history 
Roles: Editor
Classifications: HG538, 332.4973
Publication Timeline
Publications about National Bureau of Economic Research (Estados Unidos)
Publications by National Bureau of Economic Research (Estados Unidos)
Most widely held works by National Bureau of Economic Research (Estados Unidos)
A monetary history of the United States, 1867-1960 by Milton Friedman( Archival Material )
3 editions published between 1966 and 1993 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
Historical developments of the last century are explained in terms of monetary theory
Studies in income and wealth : volume 12 by Conference on Research in Income and Wealth( Book )
8 editions published between 1937 and 1952 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
Is job stability in the United States falling? : reconciling trends in the current population survey and panel study of income dynamics by David A Jaeger( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
Green tax reform and competitiveness by Erkki Koskela( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
This paper develops a model of a small open economy that produces an export good with domestic labour and imported energy and is stuck in an unemployment situation resulting from an excessive fixed net-of-tax wage rate. We study a revenue-neutral green tax reform that substitutes energy for wage taxes. A moderate green tax reform will boost employment, improve welfare, and increase the economy's competitiveness. The driving force behind these results is the technological substitution process that a green tax reform will bring about by inducing the producers to substitute labour for energy as factors of production. The resulting reduction in unemployment is welfare increasing since energy, which the country has to buy at its true national opportunity cost, is replaced with labour, whose price is above its social opportunity cost. As long as the labour tax rate exceeds the resource tax rate, a revenue-neutral green-tax reform will reduce the domestic firms' unit cost of production and hence increase international competitiveness and output of the economy
Alternative estimates of productivity growth in the NIC's : a comment on the findings of Chang-Tai Hsieh by Alwyn Young( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Dual estimates of productivity growth by Chang-Tai Hsieh have raised questions about the accuracy of the East Asian national accounts, suggesting that productivity growth in the NICs, particularly Singapore, may have been substantially higher than previously estimated. This paper shows that once one corrects for computational and methodological errors, dual estimates, using Hsieh's own data, are not that far removed from the results implied by primal sources. Further, Hsieh's criticisms of the accuracy of the national accounts capital formation figures are shown to be invalid. Finally, other data exist which support the picture of declining real rentals painted by the national accounts capital formation figures
Changing pensions in cross-section and panel data : analysis with employer provided plan descriptions by Alan L Gustman( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This study analyzes changes in the value of defined benefit (DB) pension plans over time. It uses summary plan descriptions provided by the employers of respondents to the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) in 1983 and in 1989, applying them to similar earnings histories. Pension changes between 1990 and 1995 are also analyzed, using employer plan descriptions for large firms published by the Watson Wyatt Company. Substantial changes are found in pension values and pension accruals between the two SCF cross-sections. For example, the median value of DB plans at age 55 is 40 percent higher in 1989 than in 1983. Also, early retirement age falls over the time period. Because there are important changes in the composition of the pensions in each cross-section, those who are covered by the same plan in both years experience smaller changes than are suggested by comparing cross-section data from two different time periods. Nevertheless, those who are continuously covered by the same pension also experience important pension changes over the period. For example, a fifth of those continuously covered by a defined benefit plan experiences a substantial change in early retirement date and early retirement benefits. In addition, subgroups of continuously covered workers experience pension changes in opposite directions. These changes will have a substantial influence on retirement behavior, but are dampened when comparing the differences over time in the means and medians of plan features and plan values. Using the data from Watson Wyatt on the pensions offered by thirty-nine of the fifty largest companies, we also find similar evidence of important changes over the period 1990 to 1995. Again a sizable minority of firms experience very large changes in their plans. These findings suggest that changes in successive cross-sections of pensions will exaggerate the changes in continuing plans. Nevertheless, substantial errors will be introduced into retirement studies if pension incentives and pension values are estimated from a single cross-section under the assumption that pension plans remain stable over time
Does exchange rate stability increase trade and capital flows? by Philippe Bacchetta( Book )
1 edition published in 1998 in English and held by 5 libraries worldwide
On the eve of a major change in the world monetary system, the adoption of a single currency in Europe, our theoretical understanding of the implications of the exchange rate regime for trade and capital flows is still limited. We argue that two key model ingredients are essential to address this question: a general equilibrium setup and deviations from purchasing power parity. By developing a simple benchmark monetary model that contains these two ingredients, we find the following main results. First, the level of trade is not necessarily higher under a fixed exchange rate regime. Second, the level of net capital flows tends to be higher under a fixed exchange rate regime when there is a preference for domestic bonds, which is the case when the rate of relative risk-aversion is larger than one. Third, the asset market structure, including the presence of a forward market, does not quantitatively affect the results
Is public R & D a complement or substitute for private R & D? : a review of the econometric evidence by Paul A David( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Is public R & D spending complementary and thus "additional" to private R & D spending, or does it substitute for and tend to "crowd out" private R & D? Conflicting answers are given to this question. We survey the body of available economectric evidence accumulated over the past 35 years. A framework for analysis of the problem i is developed to help organize and summarize the findings of econometric studies based on time series and cross-section data from various levels of aggregation (laboratory, firm, industry, country). The findings overall are ambivalent and the existing literature as as a whole is subject to the criticim that the nature of the "experiment(s)" that the investigators envisage is not adequately specified. We conclude by offering suggestions for improving future empirical research on this issue
Economic imperialism by Edward P Lazear( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Economics is not only a social science, it is a genuine science. Like the physical sciences, economics uses a methodology that produces refutable implications and tests these implications using solid statistical techniques. In particular, economics stresses three factors that distinguish it from other social sciences. Economists use the construct of rational individuals who engage in maximizing behavior. Economic models adhere strictly to the importance of equilibrium as part of any theory. Finally, a focus on efficiency leads economists to ask questions that other social sciences ignore. These ingredients have allowed economics to invade intellectual territory that was previously deemed to be outside the discipline's realm
Aging and the growth of long-term care by Darius Lakdawalla( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
This paper analyzes how markets for old-age care respond to the aging of populations. We consider how the biological forces, which govern the stocks of frail and healthy persons in a population, interact with economic forces, which govern the demand for and supply of care. We argue that aging many times may lower the demand for market care by increasing the supply of family-provided care, which substitutes for market care. By providing healthy spouses, aging may increase the supply of family care-givers. Unexpectedly, this implies that relative growth in healthy elderly males may contract the long-term care market, while relative growth in healthy elderly females may expand that market. We examine these implications empirically using individual, county, and national-level evidence on the US market for long-term care and find substantial support for them, particularly the negative output effect of growth in elderly males. We then decompose the per capita growth in long-term care output over the last three decades into the component accounted for by improvements in health and that accounted for by relative growth among elderly males. The novel effects of unbalanced gender growth among the elderly appear important in explaining the net decline in US per-capita output over the last 30 years, a decline which seems remarkable given the simultaneous rise in demand subsidies for long-term care, declining fertility rates, rising female labor-force participation, and the deregulation of entry barriers to the nursing home industry
Juvenile crime and punishment by Steven D Levitt( Book )
1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Over the last two decades the punitiveness of the juvenile justice system has declined" substantially relative to the adult courts. During that same time period juvenile violent crime" rates have grown almost twice as quickly as adult crime rates. This paper examines the degree to" which those two empirical observations are related, finding that changes in relative punishments" can account for 60 percent of the differential growth rates in juvenile and adult violent crime" between 1978 and 1993. Juvenile offenders appear to be at least as responsive to criminal" sanctions as adults. Moreover, sharp changes in criminal involvement with the transition from" the juvenile to the adult court suggest that deterrence, rather than simply incapacitation important role. There does not, however, appear to be a strong relationship between the" punitiveness of the juvenile justice system that a cohort faces and the extent of criminal" involvement for that cohort later in life
Balancing incentives : the tension between basic and applied research by Iain Cockburn( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper presents empirical evidence that the intensity of research workers' incentives for the distinct tasks of basic and applied research are positively associated with each other. We relate this finding to the prediction of the theoretical literature that when effort is multi-dimensional, firms will balance' the provision of incentives; when incentives are strong along one dimension, firms will set high-powered incentives for effort along other dimensions which compete for the worker's effort and attention (Holmstrom and Milgrom, 1991). We test for this effect in the context of pharmaceutical research using detailed data on individual research programs financed by private firms. Consistent with the complementarity hypothesis, we find strong evidence that firms who provide strong promotion-based incentives for individuals to invest in fundamental or basic' research also provide more intense incentives for success in applied research through the capital budgeting process. The intensity of these bonus' incentives is weaker in firms who use a more centralized research budgeting process. We interpret this latter finding as providing support for theories which emphasize substitutability between contractible and non-contractible signals of effort (Baker, Gibbons, and Murphy, 1994)
Sample selection in the estimation of air bags and seat belt effectiveness by Steven D Levitt( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Measurement of seat belt and air bag effectiveness is complicated by the fact that systematic data are collected only for crashes in which a fatality occurs. These data suffer from sample selection since seat belt and air bag usage influences survival rates which in turn determine whether a crash is included in the sample. Past researchers either ignored sample selection or adopted indirect estimation methods subject to other important biases. We propose a simple, but novel, solution to the selection problem: limiting the sample to crashes in which someone in a different vehicle dies. Under relatively weak conditions, consistent estimates can be obtained from this restricted sample. Empirically, we find seat belts to be more effective in saving lives than most previous estimates. Air bags, however, appear to be less effective than generally thought. If our coefficients can be generalized to all crashes, the cost per life saved with seat belts is approximately $30,000, compared to $1.6 million for air bags
The competition between competition rules by Hans-Werner Sinn( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Open borders imply systems competition. This paper studies the implications of systems competition for the national co mpetition rules. It is shown that an equilibrium where all countries retain their antitrust laws does not exist, since abolishing this law makes it possible for a single country to establish a cartel that successfully appropriates foreign business profi t s. Instead of such an equilibrium, a deregulation race is likely to emerge in which all but the last country repeal their antitrust laws. The deregulation race results in a chain of Stackelberg leadership positions taken over by national cartels that rend ers lower profits and higher consumer rents than would have been the case with harmonization of the antitrust laws
Was an industrial revolution inevitable? : economic growth over the very long run by Charles I Jones( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
This paper studies a growth model that is able to match several key facts of economic history. For thousands of years, the average standard of living seems to have risen very little, despite increases in the level of technology and large increases in the level of the population. Then, after thousands of years of little change, the level of per capita consumption increased dramatically in less than two centuries. Quantitative analysis of the model highlights two factors central to understanding this history. The first is a virtuous circle: more people produce more ideas, which in turn makes additional population growth possible. The second is an improvement in institutions that promote innovation, such as property rights: the simulated economy indicates that the single most important factor in the transition to modern growth has been the increase in the fraction of output pain to compensate inventors for the fruits of their labor
Union success in representation elections : why does unit size matter? by Henry S Farber( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Abstract: I establish four facts regarding the pattern of NLRB supervised representation election activity over the past 45 years: 1) the quantity of election activity has fallen sharply and discontinuously since the mid-70's after increasing between the mid-1950's and the mid-1970's; 2) union success in elections held has declined less sharply, though continuously, over the entire period; 3) it has always been the case that unions have been less likely to win NLRB-supervised representation elections in large units than in small units; and 4) the size-gap in union success rates has widened substantially over the last forty years. I develop a simple optimizing model of the union decision to hold a representation election that can account for the first three facts. I provide a pair of competing explanations for the fourth fact: one based on differential behavior by employers of different sizes and one purely statistical. I then develop and estimate three empirical models of election outcomes using data on NLRB elections over the 1952-98 time period in order to determine whether the simple statistical model can account for the size pattern of union win rates over time. I conclude that systematic union selection of targets for organization combined with the purely statistical factors can largely account for observed patterns
The risk of social security benefit rule changes : some international evidence by John McHale( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Abstract: Against a background of projections of sharply increasing elderly dependency rates, workers in the major industrial economies are apprehensive that their social security benefit entitlements will be cut before or after they retire, leaving them with inadequate retirement income. This paper looks at recent benefit rule changes in the G7 countries to see what can be learned about such political risk in PAYG pension systems. From this small sample, I find that projections of rising costs under current rules are inducing reforms, and that these reforms often have a major impact on the present discounted value of promised benefits for middle-aged and younger workers. Usually, however, the benefits of the retired and those nearing retirement are protected. The phasing in of benefit cuts raises the question as to why younger workers are willing to take significant cuts in their implicit wealth while protecting the currently old. One possible answer is explored through a simple model: these workers fear even larger cuts in their benefits if the tax burden on future workers rises too high
Managerial incentive problems--a dynamic perspective by Bengt Holmström( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Abstract: The paper studies how a person's concern for a future career may influence his or her incentives to put in effort or make decisions on the job. In the model, the person's productive abilities are revealed over time through observations of performance. There are no explicit output contingent contracts, but since the wage in each period is based on expected output and expected output depends on assessed ability, an implicit contact' links today's performance to future wages. An incentive problem arises from the person's ability and desire to influence the learning process, and therefore the wage process, by taking unobserved actions that affect today's performance. The fundamental incongruity in preferences is between the individual's concern for human capital returns and the firm's concern for financial returns. The two need to be only weakly related. It is shown that career motives can be beneficial as well as detrimental, depending on how well the two kinds of capital returns are aligned
The optimal choice of exchange-rate regime : price-setting rules and internationalized production by Michael B Devereux( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
We investigate the choice of exchange-rate regime fixed or floating in a dynamic, intertemporal general equilibrium framework. Our framework extends Devereux and Engel (1998) by investigating the implications of internationalized production. We examine the role of price-setting -- whether prices are set in the currency of producers or the currency of consumers in determining the optimality of exchange-rate regimes in an environment of uncertainty created by monetary shocks. We find that when prices are set in producers' currencies, floating exchange rates are preferred when the country is large enough, or not too risk averse. On the other hand, floating exchange rates are always preferred when prices are set in consumers' currencies because floating exchange rates allow domestic consumption to be insulated from foreign monetary shocks. The gains from floating exchange rates are greater when there is internationalized production in this case
The location and characteristics of U.S. affiliates in Asia by Robert E Lipsey( Book )
1 edition published in 1999 in English and held by 4 libraries worldwide
Market size and growth rates, per capita income, distance from the United States, and tax rates on U.S. affiliates accounted for about half the variation among developing host countries in most aspects of U.S. FDI activity. Residuals from the equations for one period add greatly to the explanatory power of the next period's equations, suggesting that there are long-run characteristics of the host economies, omitted from the equations, that are favorable or unfavorable to U.S. investment and FDI activity. There are considerable differences in the determinants of U.S. FDI activity between industries in which U.S. affiliates are export-oriented, such as machinery, and industries in which the affiliates' sales are mainly local. In the export-oriented industries, market size and distance from the United States were unimportant, and high per capita real income was the most consistent favorable influence. In the industries oriented to local sales, large market size attracted U.S. firms and long distance from the United States discouraged them. Among the ten Asian countries studied, Singapore and Malaysia had the largest U.S. affiliate shares of aggregate output while India, China, and Korea had the smallest. The countries with the largest shares were also those that ranked high on measures of institutional characteristics, including low levels of corruption. Measured by deviations from the equations, however, the relation to the institutional measures was blurred, suggesting that the institutional measures are correlated with the economic characteristics used as explanatory variables in the equations
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