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Leigh, Daniel

Works: 49 works in 239 publications in 1 language and 3,256 library holdings
Genres: History 
Roles: Author
Classifications: HC244, 330.943
Publication Timeline
Publications about Daniel Leigh
Publications by Daniel Leigh
Most widely held works by Daniel Leigh
Leading indicators of growth and inflation in Turkey by Daniel Leigh( Book )
8 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 20 libraries worldwide
Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in Turkey. We find that (i) the forecasting ability of individual indicators is unstable; but that (ii) a suitable combination of these unstable forecasts yields a forecast that reliably outperforms that generated by an autoregressive model. We then propose a two-stage combination forecast obtained by taking the median of the top five performing individual forecasts. This two-stage forecast reliably improves on autoregressive benchmarks and outperforms the combination forecast based on all the individual forecasts
International finance and income convergence : Europe is different by Abdul Abiad( Book )
12 editions published in 2007 in English and Undetermined and held by 20 libraries worldwide
Recent studies conclude that the ongoing global financial integration may have had little or no value in advancing economic growth, especially in poor countries. Capital is often found to flow "uphill" from poor to rich countries. And, when it does flow into the less developed economies, it is negatively correlated with growth, calling into question the desirability of foreign capital. In this paper we report that Europe-including the new member states of the European Union-provides a counterexample to these global anomalies. With increasing financial integration, capital in Europe has traveled "downhill" from rich to poor countries, and has done so with gathering strength. These inflows have been associated with significant acceleration of income convergence
Exchange rate pass-through in Turkey by Daniel Leigh( Book )
7 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 19 libraries worldwide
In light of the strong correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic prices in Turkey, it is important to assess the impact of the exchange rate on domestic prices, in particular as Turkey moves to an inflation targeting regime. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression model to investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on prices in Turkey. We find that (i) the impact of the exchange rate on prices is over after about a year, but is mostly felt in the first four months, (ii) the pass-through to wholesale prices is more pronounced compared to the pass-through to consumer prices, and (iii) the estimated pass-through is complete in a shorter time and is larger than that estimated for other key emerging market countries
Growth in the Central and Eastern European countries of the European Union by Susan Schadler( Book )
6 editions published between 2006 and 2007 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
The central challenges facing the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia as they work to catch up to advanced European Union (EU) income levels are discussed in this new book. Focusing on the region's growth performance, and outlining two growth scenarios that illustrate the range of investment and productivity growth rates under the income catchup objective, the authors draw upon extensive resources to identify strengths and weaknesses
Fuel price subsidies in Gabon : fiscal cost and distributional impact by Moataz El-Said( Book )
11 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 17 libraries worldwide
This paper looks at the fiscal cost and distributional impact of implicit fuel price subsidies in Gabon, where fuel prices have remained largely unchanged since 2002. Using estimated implicit import parity prices, we evaluate the total fiscal cost of the subsidies at 3.2 percent of non-oil GDP in 2005-more than total public health expenditures. We also analyze the distribution of the subsidies using household survey data and find that the bulk of the subsidies benefit higher-income households. Finally, we suggest use of a number of existing programs to provide a more targeted and cost-effective means of protecting the real incomes of lower-income households from the effects of energy price increases
Estimating the implicit inflation target : an application to U.S. monetary policy by Daniel Leigh( Book )
6 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 14 libraries worldwide
This paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter. I apply this method to U.S. monetary policy over the past 25 years and find considerable time variation in the implicit target, confirming hypotheses about "opportunistic disinflation" and the recent "deflation scare."
Ensuring fiscal sustainability in G-7 countries by David Hauner( Book )
11 editions published in 2007 in English and Undetermined and held by 13 libraries worldwide
Rising longevity, falling fertility rates, and the retirement of the baby boom generation will substantially raise age-related government spending in most advanced and many emerging market countries. This paper assesses the evolution of fiscal sustainability for each of the G-7 countries using two standard primary gap indicators. The estimated fiscal adjustment required to ensure long-run fiscal sustainability is substantial for all G-7 countries. In particular, ensuring fiscal sustainability would require an average improvement in the primary balance of about 4 percentage points of GDP. While the overall adjustment required to achieve long-run fiscal sustainability in G-7 countries is large, there are significant growth benefits to putting public finances on a sustainable footing in the near term versus delayed adjustment
Fiscal adjustments : determinants and macroeconomic consequences by Manmohan S Kumar( Book )
11 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 13 libraries worldwide
The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a non-Ricardian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The study finds that while fiscal consolidations tend to have short-run contractionary effects, they can be expansionary in the long run, provided that they do not rely excessively on cuts in productive government expenditure. They can also create positive spillover effects for the rest of the world
Achieving a soft landing : the role of fiscal policy by Daniel Leigh( Book )
11 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
This paper utilizes an open-economy New Keynesian overlapping generations model to assess the extent to which fiscal policy, along side an inflation-forecast-based monetary policy, could enhance macroeconomic stability in Colombia. The model simulations indicate that, in addition to stabilizing output and inflation, a stronger response of the fiscal balance to excess tax revenue would reduce the burden on the central bank of adjusting interest rates, lessen the associated degree of exchange rate volatility, and contribute to a more stable external current account balance. The analysis also assesses how the success of fiscal policy in enhancing macroeconomic stability depends on the type of shock, the response of monetary policy, and the length of fiscal policy implementation lags
Monetary policy and the lost decade : lessons from Japan by Daniel Leigh( Book )
10 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
This paper investigates how monetary policy can help ward off a protracted deflationary slump when policy rates are near the zero bound by studying the experience of Japan during the "Lost Decade" which followed the asset-price bubble collapse in the early 1990s. Estimation results based on a structural model suggest that the Bank of Japan's interest-rate policy fits a conventional forward-looking reaction function with an inflation target of about 1 percent. The disappointing economic performance thus seems primarily due to a series of adverse economic shocks rather than an extraordinary policy error. In addition, counterfactual policy simulations based on the estimated structural model suggest that simply raising the inflation target would not have yielded a lasting improvement in performance. However, a price-targeting rule or a policy rule that combined a higher inflation target with a more aggressive response to output would have achieved superior stabilization results
Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns: Evidence from the G7 by Sven Jari Stehn( Book )
14 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 11 libraries worldwide
This paper analyzes how fiscal and monetary policy typically respond during downturns in G7 countries. It evaluates whether discretionary fiscal responses to downturns are timely and temporary, and compares the response of fiscal policy to that of monetary policy. The results suggest that while responding more weakly and less quickly than monetary policy, discretionary fiscal policy is more timely than conventional wisdom would suggest, particularly in "Anglo-Saxon" countries, but the response differs substantially across fiscal instruments. Both fiscal and monetary policy are found to be subj
Okun's Law : fit at fifty? by Laurence M Ball( Book )
10 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 10 libraries worldwide
This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantially during the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of "jobless recoveries," are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship--the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate--varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labor markets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation
Catch-up growth, habits, oil depletion, and fiscal policy : lessons from the Republic of Congo by Stéphane Carcillo( Book )
9 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 8 libraries worldwide
In a number of oil producing countries, oil revenue accounts for the majority of government revenue, but is expected to be depleted in a relatively short time frame. Ensuring that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path is thus a high priority, but political and social adjustment costs create incentives to delay fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates how the permanently sustainable non-oil primary deficit (PSNOPD) depends on the speed of consolidation, using an optimization model with habit formation. Realism is added by allowing for negative growth-adjusted interest rates during a temporar
Alternative fiscal rules for Norway by Etibar Jafarov( Book )
11 editions published in 2007 in English and Undetermined and held by 7 libraries worldwide
This paper considers long-term fiscal policy options in Norway, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, in light of the substantial expected increase in pension outlays. It compares the current fiscal rule, which targets a (central government structural) non-oil deficit equal to 4 percent of Government Pension Fund assets, with three alternatives that save a larger share of oil revenue and accumulate more assets to pay for aging costs. It also analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of accumulating more assets, finding that the additional income generated from more assets allows lower tax rates, with positive effects on long-term output
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers by Olivier Blanchard( Book )
9 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 7 libraries worldwide
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site
The second transition : Eastern Europe in perspective by Stefania Fabrizio( Book )
16 editions published between 2006 and 2009 in English and held by 7 libraries worldwide
"This paper studies the global trade and financial market integration of the countries in Eastern Europe. The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second transition, this paper reaches three conclusions. First, by several metrics, East European and East Asian growth performances were about on par from the mid-1990s; both regions far surpassed Latin American growth. Second, the mechanisms of growth in East Europe and East Asia were, however, very different. East Europe relied on a distinctive--often discredited--model, embracing financial integration with structural change to compensate for appreciating real exchange rates. In contrast, East Asia contained further financial integration and maintained steady or depreciating real exchange rates. Third, the ongoing financial turbulence has, thus far, not had an obviously differential impact on emerging market regions: rather, the hot spots in each region reflect individual country vulnerabilities. If the East European growth model is distinctive, is it sustainable and replicable? The paper speculates on the possibilities."--Document home p
Monetary and fiscal policy options for dealing with external shocks : insights from the GIMF for Colombia by Benedict J Clements( Book )
13 editions published between 2009 and 2010 in English and held by 6 libraries worldwide
This paper utilizes an open-economy New Keynesian overlapping generations model, the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), to assess the macroeconomic effects of external shocks and the impact of various monetary and fiscal policy responses. The simulations assess the effect of shocks to trade, world income, and risk premia for public debt. The results suggest that under Colombia's inflation targeting regime, which incorporates exchange rate flexibility and a highly responsive monetary policy, the economy is well poised to adjust to different external shocks. They also suggest that the potential role of fiscal policy in responding to shocks depends critically on financing conditions
Republic of Lithuania : selected issues by Leo Bonato( Book )
4 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 6 libraries worldwide
To Starve or not to Starve the Beast? by Michael Kumhof( Book )
4 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 3 libraries worldwide
For thirty years prominent voices have advocated a policy of starving the beast cutting taxes to force government spending cuts. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare consequences of this policy using a two-country general equilibrium model. Under several strong assumptions the policy, if fully implemented, produces domestic output and welfare gains accompanied by losses elsewhere. But negative effects can easily arise in the presence of longer policy implementation lags, utility-enhancing government spending, and productive government capital. Overall, the analysis finds no support for the idea that starving the beast is a foolproof way towards higher output and welfare
Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence by Jaime Guajardo( file )
4 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 1 library worldwide
This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fisca
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