Pakes, Ariel
Overview
Works:  104 works in 446 publications in 1 language and 3,521 library holdings 

Genres:  Conference papers and proceedings 
Roles:  Author, Honoree 
Classifications:  HB1, 330 
Publication Timeline
.
Most widely held works by
Ariel Pakes
Differentiated products demand systems from a combination of micro and macro data : the new car market by
Steven Berry(
Book
)
17 editions published between 1998 and 2004 in English and held by 75 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
In this paper, we exploit new sources of crosssectional data to estimate a detailed productlevel demand system for new passenger vehicles. We use four data sources: on the characteristics of products, on the attributes of the U.S. population of households, on the match between the first and second vehicle choices of the household, and on the match between households attributes and first choice vehicles. We show that these data solve some, but not all, of the traditional problems in estimating differentiated products demand systems and indicate which data sources are important for which problem. The data is rich enough to reveal a rather complex substitution pattern, requiring a quite general modeling framework. Together the data and model make a detailed analysis of industry demand possible
17 editions published between 1998 and 2004 in English and held by 75 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
In this paper, we exploit new sources of crosssectional data to estimate a detailed productlevel demand system for new passenger vehicles. We use four data sources: on the characteristics of products, on the attributes of the U.S. population of households, on the match between the first and second vehicle choices of the household, and on the match between households attributes and first choice vehicles. We show that these data solve some, but not all, of the traditional problems in estimating differentiated products demand systems and indicate which data sources are important for which problem. The data is rich enough to reveal a rather complex substitution pattern, requiring a quite general modeling framework. Together the data and model make a detailed analysis of industry demand possible
A dynamic oligopoly with collusion and price wars by
Chaim Fershtman(
Book
)
15 editions published between 1998 and 1999 in English and held by 69 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Most of the theoretical work on collusion and price wars assumes identical firms and an unchanging environment, assumptions which are at odds with what we know about most industries. Further that literature focuses on the impact of collusion on prices. Whether an industry can support collusion also effects investment incentives and hence the variety, cost, and quality of the products marketed. We provide a collusive framework with heterogeneity among firms, investment, entry, and exit. It is a symmetric information model in which it is hard to sustain collusion when either one of the firms does not keep up with the advances of its competitors, or a low quality' entrant enters. In either case there will be an active firm that is quite likely to exit after it deviates, but if one of the competitors is near an exit state the other incumbent(s) has an incentive to price predatorily (that is to deviate themselves). We use numerical analysis to compare an institutional structure that allows for collusion to one which does not (perhaps because of an active antitrust authority). Price paths clearly differ in the two environments; in particular only the collusive industry generates price wars. The collusive industry offers both more and higher quality products to consumers, albeit often at a higher price. The positive effect of collusion on the variety and quality of products marketed more than compensates consumers for the negative effect of collusive prices, so that consumer surplus is larger in the collusive environment
15 editions published between 1998 and 1999 in English and held by 69 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Most of the theoretical work on collusion and price wars assumes identical firms and an unchanging environment, assumptions which are at odds with what we know about most industries. Further that literature focuses on the impact of collusion on prices. Whether an industry can support collusion also effects investment incentives and hence the variety, cost, and quality of the products marketed. We provide a collusive framework with heterogeneity among firms, investment, entry, and exit. It is a symmetric information model in which it is hard to sustain collusion when either one of the firms does not keep up with the advances of its competitors, or a low quality' entrant enters. In either case there will be an active firm that is quite likely to exit after it deviates, but if one of the competitors is near an exit state the other incumbent(s) has an incentive to price predatorily (that is to deviate themselves). We use numerical analysis to compare an institutional structure that allows for collusion to one which does not (perhaps because of an active antitrust authority). Price paths clearly differ in the two environments; in particular only the collusive industry generates price wars. The collusive industry offers both more and higher quality products to consumers, albeit often at a higher price. The positive effect of collusion on the variety and quality of products marketed more than compensates consumers for the negative effect of collusive prices, so that consumer surplus is larger in the collusive environment
Voluntary export restraints on automobiles : evaluating a strategic trade policy by
Steven Berry(
Book
)
12 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 67 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
In May, 1981, a voluntary export restraint (VER) was placed on exports of automobiles from Japan to the United States. As trade policies go, this one was important. At about the same time, though to much less fanfare, international trade theorists were obtaining (then) startling results from models of international trade in imperfectly competitive markets. These models suggested that in imperfectly competitive markets, an activist trade policy might enhance national welfare. In this paper, we provide some empirical evidence on whether these new theoretical possibilities might actually apply to the policy of VERs
12 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 67 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
In May, 1981, a voluntary export restraint (VER) was placed on exports of automobiles from Japan to the United States. As trade policies go, this one was important. At about the same time, though to much less fanfare, international trade theorists were obtaining (then) startling results from models of international trade in imperfectly competitive markets. These models suggested that in imperfectly competitive markets, an activist trade policy might enhance national welfare. In this paper, we provide some empirical evidence on whether these new theoretical possibilities might actually apply to the policy of VERs
Environmental change and hedonic cost functions for automobiles by
Steven Berry(
Book
)
13 editions published between 1995 and 1996 in English and held by 66 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper focuses on how changes in the economic and regulatory environment have affected production costs and product characteristics in the automobile industry. We estimate cost functions characteristics. Then we examine how this cost surface has changed over time and how these changes relate to changes in gas prices and in emission standard regulations. We also briefly consider the related questions of how changes in automobile characteristics, and in the rate of patenting, are related to regulations and gas prices
13 editions published between 1995 and 1996 in English and held by 66 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Abstract: This paper focuses on how changes in the economic and regulatory environment have affected production costs and product characteristics in the automobile industry. We estimate cost functions characteristics. Then we examine how this cost surface has changed over time and how these changes relate to changes in gas prices and in emission standard regulations. We also briefly consider the related questions of how changes in automobile characteristics, and in the rate of patenting, are related to regulations and gas prices
How to count patents and value intellectual property : uses of patent renewal and application data by
Jean Olson Lanjouw(
Book
)
13 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 63 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Engl. Zusammenfass
13 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 63 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Engl. Zusammenfass
A reconsideration of hedonic price indices with an application to PC's by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
15 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 57 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper begins by comparing hedonic price indexes to the standard matched model index. The matched model index is formed as an average of the price changes of the goods in the sample in the base period that remain on the sampled stores' shelves in the comparison period. Since goods that do not remain on the shelves tend to be goods whose market value has fallen, the matched model index tends to select from the right tail of the distribution of price changes. The hedonic index corrects for the change in value of the observed characteristics of the goods that exit. Moreover we provide conditions which insure that the hedonic can be justified as an upper bound to the compensating variation (which is the standard rational for the matched model index when no goods exit). The paper then explains how the hedonic index can be constructed from exactly the same data that is currently used to construct the CPI. The matched model index can have lower variance than the hedonic when both are computed from this data, but in those cases we show that there is a hybrid hedonic index which has the selection correction properties of the hedonic and the variance reduction properties of the matched model index. We illustrate with a new study of price indexes for PC's. The hedonic index shows steep price declines which follow the pattern of technological change in this market. On average, the matched model indexes indicate no price fall at all and one commonly used matched model index is negatively correlated with the hedonic. We also consider alternative indexes. Of these the one that works well is a 'Paasche style' hedonic that we introduce. Its advantage is that since it does not require computation of the current period's hedonic function, it is easier to use when monthly timetables need to be met
15 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 57 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper begins by comparing hedonic price indexes to the standard matched model index. The matched model index is formed as an average of the price changes of the goods in the sample in the base period that remain on the sampled stores' shelves in the comparison period. Since goods that do not remain on the shelves tend to be goods whose market value has fallen, the matched model index tends to select from the right tail of the distribution of price changes. The hedonic index corrects for the change in value of the observed characteristics of the goods that exit. Moreover we provide conditions which insure that the hedonic can be justified as an upper bound to the compensating variation (which is the standard rational for the matched model index when no goods exit). The paper then explains how the hedonic index can be constructed from exactly the same data that is currently used to construct the CPI. The matched model index can have lower variance than the hedonic when both are computed from this data, but in those cases we show that there is a hybrid hedonic index which has the selection correction properties of the hedonic and the variance reduction properties of the matched model index. We illustrate with a new study of price indexes for PC's. The hedonic index shows steep price declines which follow the pattern of technological change in this market. On average, the matched model indexes indicate no price fall at all and one commonly used matched model index is negatively correlated with the hedonic. We also consider alternative indexes. Of these the one that works well is a 'Paasche style' hedonic that we introduce. Its advantage is that since it does not require computation of the current period's hedonic function, it is easier to use when monthly timetables need to be met
A framework for applied dynamic analysis in I.O. by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
11 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 54 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper outlines a framework which computes and analyzes the equilibria from a class of dynamic games. The framework dates to Ericson and Pakes (1995), and allows for a finite number of heterogeneous firms, sequential investments with stochastic outcomes, and entry and exit. The equilibrium analyzed is a Markov Perfect equilibrium in the sense of Maskin and Tirole (1988). The simplest version of the framework is supported by a publically accessible computer program which computes equilibrium policies for userspecified primitives, and then analyzes the evolution of the industry from userspecified initial conditions. We begin by outlining the publically accessible framework. It allows for three types of competition in the spot market for current output (specified up to a set of parameter values set by the user), and has modules which allow the user to compare the industry structures generated by the Markov Perfect equilibrium to those that would be generated by a social planner and to those that would be generated by prefect collusion.' Next we review extensions that have been made to the simple framework. These were largely made by other authors who needed to enrich the framework so that it could be used to provide a realistic analysis of particular applied problems. The third section provides a simple way of evaluating the computational burden of the algorithm for a given set of primitives, and then shows that computational constraints are still binding in many applied situations. The last section reviews two computational algorithms designed to alleviate this computational constraint; one of which is based on functional form approximations and the other on learning techniques similar to those used in the artificial intelligence literature
11 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 54 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper outlines a framework which computes and analyzes the equilibria from a class of dynamic games. The framework dates to Ericson and Pakes (1995), and allows for a finite number of heterogeneous firms, sequential investments with stochastic outcomes, and entry and exit. The equilibrium analyzed is a Markov Perfect equilibrium in the sense of Maskin and Tirole (1988). The simplest version of the framework is supported by a publically accessible computer program which computes equilibrium policies for userspecified primitives, and then analyzes the evolution of the industry from userspecified initial conditions. We begin by outlining the publically accessible framework. It allows for three types of competition in the spot market for current output (specified up to a set of parameter values set by the user), and has modules which allow the user to compare the industry structures generated by the Markov Perfect equilibrium to those that would be generated by a social planner and to those that would be generated by prefect collusion.' Next we review extensions that have been made to the simple framework. These were largely made by other authors who needed to enrich the framework so that it could be used to provide a realistic analysis of particular applied problems. The third section provides a simple way of evaluating the computational burden of the algorithm for a given set of primitives, and then shows that computational constraints are still binding in many applied situations. The last section reviews two computational algorithms designed to alleviate this computational constraint; one of which is based on functional form approximations and the other on learning techniques similar to those used in the artificial intelligence literature
The dynamics of productivity in the telecommunications equipment industry by
G. Steven Olley(
Book
)
13 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 53 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Technological change and deregulation have caused a major restructuring of the telecommunications equipment industry over the last two decades. We estimate the parameters of a production function for the equipment industry and then use those estimates to analyze the evolution of plant level productivity over this period. The restructuring involved significant entry and exit and large changes in the sizes of incumbents. Since firms' choices on whether to liquidate and on the quantities of inputs demanded should they continue depend on their productivity, we use an equilibrium model to suggest an estimation algorithm that takes into account the relationship between productivity on the one hand. and both input demand and survival on the other. A fully parametric version of the estimation algorithm would be both computationally burdensome and require a host of auxiliary assumptions. So we develop a semi parametric technique which is both consistent with a quite general version of the theoretical framework and easy to use. The algorithm produces markedly different estimates of both production function parameters and of productivity movements than traditional estimation procedures. We find an increase in the rate of industry productivity growth after deregulation. This in spite of the fact there was no increase in the average of the plants' rates of productivity growth, and there was actually a fall in our index of the efficiency of the allocation of variable factors conditional on the existing distribution of fixed factors. Deregulation was, however, followed by a reallocation of capital towards more productive establishments (by a down sizing, often shutdown. of unproductive plants and by disproportionate growth of productive establishments) which more than offset the other factors' negative impacts on aggregate productivity
13 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 53 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Technological change and deregulation have caused a major restructuring of the telecommunications equipment industry over the last two decades. We estimate the parameters of a production function for the equipment industry and then use those estimates to analyze the evolution of plant level productivity over this period. The restructuring involved significant entry and exit and large changes in the sizes of incumbents. Since firms' choices on whether to liquidate and on the quantities of inputs demanded should they continue depend on their productivity, we use an equilibrium model to suggest an estimation algorithm that takes into account the relationship between productivity on the one hand. and both input demand and survival on the other. A fully parametric version of the estimation algorithm would be both computationally burdensome and require a host of auxiliary assumptions. So we develop a semi parametric technique which is both consistent with a quite general version of the theoretical framework and easy to use. The algorithm produces markedly different estimates of both production function parameters and of productivity movements than traditional estimation procedures. We find an increase in the rate of industry productivity growth after deregulation. This in spite of the fact there was no increase in the average of the plants' rates of productivity growth, and there was actually a fall in our index of the efficiency of the allocation of variable factors conditional on the existing distribution of fixed factors. Deregulation was, however, followed by a reallocation of capital towards more productive establishments (by a down sizing, often shutdown. of unproductive plants and by disproportionate growth of productive establishments) which more than offset the other factors' negative impacts on aggregate productivity
Automobile prices in market equilibrium by
Steven Berry(
Book
)
15 editions published between 1993 and 1996 in English and Undetermined and held by 50 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper develops new techniques for empirically analyzing demand and supply in differentiated products markets and then applies these techniques to analyze equilibrium in the U.S. automobile industry. Our primary goal is to present a framework which enables one to obtain estimates of demand and cost parameters for a broad class of oligopolistic differentiated products markets. These estimates can be obtained using only widely available productlevel and aggregate consumerlevel data, and they are consistent with a structural model of equilibrium in an oligopolistic industry. When we apply the techniques developed here to the U.S. automobile market. we obtain cost and demand parameters for (essentially) all models marketed over a twenty year period
15 editions published between 1993 and 1996 in English and Undetermined and held by 50 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper develops new techniques for empirically analyzing demand and supply in differentiated products markets and then applies these techniques to analyze equilibrium in the U.S. automobile industry. Our primary goal is to present a framework which enables one to obtain estimates of demand and cost parameters for a broad class of oligopolistic differentiated products markets. These estimates can be obtained using only widely available productlevel and aggregate consumerlevel data, and they are consistent with a structural model of equilibrium in an oligopolistic industry. When we apply the techniques developed here to the U.S. automobile market. we obtain cost and demand parameters for (essentially) all models marketed over a twenty year period
Common sense and simplicity in empirical industrial organization by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
15 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 48 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper is a revised version of a keynote address delivered at the inaugural International Industrial Organization Conference in Boston, April 2003. I argue that new econometric tools have facilitated the estimation of models with realistic theoretical underpinnings, and because of this, have made empirical I.O. much more useful. The tools solve computational problems thereby allowing us to make the relationship between the economic model and the estimating equations transparent. This, in turn, enables us to utilize the available data more effectively. It also facilitates robustness analysis and clarifies the assumptions needed to analyze the causes of past events and/or make predictions of the likely impacts of future policy or environmental changes. The paper provides examples illustrating the value of simulation for the estimation of demand systems and of semiparametrics for the estimation of entry models
15 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 48 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper is a revised version of a keynote address delivered at the inaugural International Industrial Organization Conference in Boston, April 2003. I argue that new econometric tools have facilitated the estimation of models with realistic theoretical underpinnings, and because of this, have made empirical I.O. much more useful. The tools solve computational problems thereby allowing us to make the relationship between the economic model and the estimating equations transparent. This, in turn, enables us to utilize the available data more effectively. It also facilitates robustness analysis and clarifies the assumptions needed to analyze the causes of past events and/or make predictions of the likely impacts of future policy or environmental changes. The paper provides examples illustrating the value of simulation for the estimation of demand systems and of semiparametrics for the estimation of entry models
Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples) by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
14 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 44 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper considers the problem of estimating the distribution of payoffs in a discrete dynamic game, focusing on models where the goal is to learn about the distribution of firms' entry and exit costs. The idea is to begin with non parametric first stage estimates of entry and continuation values obtained by computing sample averages of the realized continuation values of entrants who do enter and incumbents who do continue. Under certain assumptions these values are linear functions of the parameters of the problem, and hence are not computationally burdensome to use. Attention is given to the small sample problem of estimation error in the non parametric estimates and this leads to a preference for use of particularly simple estimates of continuation values and moments
14 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 44 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper considers the problem of estimating the distribution of payoffs in a discrete dynamic game, focusing on models where the goal is to learn about the distribution of firms' entry and exit costs. The idea is to begin with non parametric first stage estimates of entry and continuation values obtained by computing sample averages of the realized continuation values of entrants who do enter and incumbents who do continue. Under certain assumptions these values are linear functions of the parameters of the problem, and hence are not computationally burdensome to use. Attention is given to the small sample problem of estimation error in the non parametric estimates and this leads to a preference for use of particularly simple estimates of continuation values and moments
Empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
15 editions published between 1987 and 1990 in English and held by 41 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper considers two models for analyzing the dynamics of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms, idiosyncratic (or firm specific) sources of uncertainty, and discrete outcomes (exit and/or entry). Models with these characteristics are needed for the structural econometric analysis of several economic phenomena, including the behavior of capital markets when there are significant failure probabilities, and the analysis of productivity movements in industries with large amounts of entry and exit. In addition, these models provide a means of correcting for the selfsection induced by liquidation decisions in empirical studies of firms responses to alternative policy and environmental changes. It is shown that the two models have different nonparametric implications  implications that depend only on basic behavioral assumptions and mild regularity conditions on the functional forms of interest (one distinction between them corresponds to the distinction between heterogeneity and an ergodic form of statedependence; a form in which the effect of being in a state in a particular period erodes away as time from that period lapses). The nonparametric implications enable the construction of testing and selection correction procedures that are easy to implement (they do not require the computationally difficult, and functionalform specific, estimation algorithms that have been used to empirically analyze stochastic control models with discrete outcomes in the past). The paper concludes by checking for the implications of the two models on an eightyear panel of Wisconsin firms. We find one model to be consistent with the data for retail trade
15 editions published between 1987 and 1990 in English and held by 41 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper considers two models for analyzing the dynamics of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms, idiosyncratic (or firm specific) sources of uncertainty, and discrete outcomes (exit and/or entry). Models with these characteristics are needed for the structural econometric analysis of several economic phenomena, including the behavior of capital markets when there are significant failure probabilities, and the analysis of productivity movements in industries with large amounts of entry and exit. In addition, these models provide a means of correcting for the selfsection induced by liquidation decisions in empirical studies of firms responses to alternative policy and environmental changes. It is shown that the two models have different nonparametric implications  implications that depend only on basic behavioral assumptions and mild regularity conditions on the functional forms of interest (one distinction between them corresponds to the distinction between heterogeneity and an ergodic form of statedependence; a form in which the effect of being in a state in a particular period erodes away as time from that period lapses). The nonparametric implications enable the construction of testing and selection correction procedures that are easy to implement (they do not require the computationally difficult, and functionalform specific, estimation algorithms that have been used to empirically analyze stochastic control models with discrete outcomes in the past). The paper concludes by checking for the implications of the two models on an eightyear panel of Wisconsin firms. We find one model to be consistent with the data for retail trade
Factor utilization in Indian manufacturing : a look at the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys data by
Ana Margarida Fernandes(
Book
)
9 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 19 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
We use the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys data to analyze the employment of both labor and capital in Indian manufacturing. We focus on disparities among states in manufacturing employment patterns, and provide reduced form evidence of their relationship to both (i) institutional constraints, and (ii) productivity
9 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 19 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
We use the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys data to analyze the employment of both labor and capital in Indian manufacturing. We focus on disparities among states in manufacturing employment patterns, and provide reduced form evidence of their relationship to both (i) institutional constraints, and (ii) productivity
Theory and empirical work on imperfectly competitive markets by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
9 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper reviews recent methodological developments in the empirical analysis of imperfectly competitive markets highlighting outstanding problems. Some of these problems are econometric; e.g. the need for a deeper understanding of the small sample properties of our estimators. Most of the other problems relate to issues which have been a central part of ongoing research programs in economic theory for some time. We consider ways in which applied work can cope with these problems and, in so doing, also inform theory. The use of estimators based on moment inequalities opens up several possibilities in this regard and a detailed discussion of the assumptions used to rationalize these estimators is provided. An example, the analysis of contracts in buyerseller networks, is used to highlight these points
9 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper reviews recent methodological developments in the empirical analysis of imperfectly competitive markets highlighting outstanding problems. Some of these problems are econometric; e.g. the need for a deeper understanding of the small sample properties of our estimators. Most of the other problems relate to issues which have been a central part of ongoing research programs in economic theory for some time. We consider ways in which applied work can cope with these problems and, in so doing, also inform theory. The use of estimators based on moment inequalities opens up several possibilities in this regard and a detailed discussion of the assumptions used to rationalize these estimators is provided. An example, the analysis of contracts in buyerseller networks, is used to highlight these points
The rate of obsolescence of knowledge, research gestation lags, and the private rate of return to research resources by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
8 editions published between 1977 and 1979 in English and held by 16 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper points out the conceptual distinction between the rates of decay in the physical productivity of traditional capital goods and that of the appropriate revenues accruing to knowledgeproducing activities, and notes that it is the latter parameter which is required in any study which constructs a stock of privately marketable knowledge. The rate of obsolescence of knowledge is estimated from a simple patent renewal and the estimates are found to be comparable to evidence provided by firms on the lifespan of the output of their R & D activities. These estimates, together with mean R & D gestation lags, are then used to correct previous estimates of the private excess rate of return to investment in research. We find that after the correction, the private excess rate of return to investment in research, at least in the early 1960's, was close to zero, which may explain why firms reduced the fraction of their resources allocated to research over the subsequent decade
8 editions published between 1977 and 1979 in English and held by 16 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper points out the conceptual distinction between the rates of decay in the physical productivity of traditional capital goods and that of the appropriate revenues accruing to knowledgeproducing activities, and notes that it is the latter parameter which is required in any study which constructs a stock of privately marketable knowledge. The rate of obsolescence of knowledge is estimated from a simple patent renewal and the estimates are found to be comparable to evidence provided by firms on the lifespan of the output of their R & D activities. These estimates, together with mean R & D gestation lags, are then used to correct previous estimates of the private excess rate of return to investment in research. We find that after the correction, the private excess rate of return to investment in research, at least in the early 1960's, was close to zero, which may explain why firms reduced the fraction of their resources allocated to research over the subsequent decade
Aggregation effects and panel data : estimation problems by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
8 editions published between 1979 and 1980 in English and held by 16 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper considers why the determinants of the inter and intraindustry variance in R&D intensity in U.S. manufacturing differ markedly even though response parameters are similar across industries. A similar aggregation effect is noted by Grunfeld and Griliches (1960), and this paper gives that effect operational content in terms of grouped data estimation procedures. Observationally equivalent aggregation results can be generated by errors in variables models (see Aigner and Goldfeld [1974]).A later section considers specifications which identify the empirical importance of both these problems. Finally, a summary of the empirical results on the determinants of R&D intensity is provided
8 editions published between 1979 and 1980 in English and held by 16 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper considers why the determinants of the inter and intraindustry variance in R&D intensity in U.S. manufacturing differ markedly even though response parameters are similar across industries. A similar aggregation effect is noted by Grunfeld and Griliches (1960), and this paper gives that effect operational content in terms of grouped data estimation procedures. Observationally equivalent aggregation results can be generated by errors in variables models (see Aigner and Goldfeld [1974]).A later section considers specifications which identify the empirical importance of both these problems. Finally, a summary of the empirical results on the determinants of R&D intensity is provided
Measuring the varianceage profile of lifetime income by
Benjamin Eden(
Book
)
5 editions published in 1979 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper presents an operational meaning to the concept of the variance in lifetime income in terms of the discounted variance of T mutually uncorrelated, sequentially realized, random variables. It is then shown how the logical implications of the lifecycle consumption model can be used to estimate this series of variances, called the varianceage profile of lifetime income, and we refer to an earlier paper by Eden (1977) to show how this varianceage profile can be used to compare the riskiness of alternative labor income paths. Finally the estimation technique is applied to Israeli data in order to compare the riskiness of the earnings path of those who attended college with that of those who terminated their education at the high school level in that economy, and to consider data requirements and estimation problems in greater depth
5 editions published in 1979 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper presents an operational meaning to the concept of the variance in lifetime income in terms of the discounted variance of T mutually uncorrelated, sequentially realized, random variables. It is then shown how the logical implications of the lifecycle consumption model can be used to estimate this series of variances, called the varianceage profile of lifetime income, and we refer to an earlier paper by Eden (1977) to show how this varianceage profile can be used to compare the riskiness of alternative labor income paths. Finally the estimation technique is applied to Israeli data in order to compare the riskiness of the earnings path of those who attended college with that of those who terminated their education at the high school level in that economy, and to consider data requirements and estimation problems in greater depth
An exploration into the determinants of research intensity by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
5 editions published in 1980 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper explores the economic factors which determine the variation of research effort across firms. The intraindustry coefficient of variation of research intensity is much larger than those of traditional factors. We show that this important fact is consistent with the theoretical argument that knowledge possesses unique economic characteristics, and that the demand for research depends both on the parameters of the production function for knowledge and on the ability of the firm to appropriate the benefits from the knowledge it produces. We propose and implement a framework for decomposing the observed intraindustry variance In research intensity into three components: demand inducement, a firmspecific structural parameter, and errors in the observed variables. The main empirical findings are that errors in the variables (especially research) are important, that very little of the structural variance in research intensity is accounted for by demand inducement, and that the bulk of the variance is related to differences in the firmspecific parameter. Both the theoretical and empirical analysis indicate that it is not reasonable to treat the demand for research in a manner analogous to the demand for traditional inputs, including capital. Substantially richer models are required to provide insight into the structure of incentives driving the demand for research
5 editions published in 1980 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper explores the economic factors which determine the variation of research effort across firms. The intraindustry coefficient of variation of research intensity is much larger than those of traditional factors. We show that this important fact is consistent with the theoretical argument that knowledge possesses unique economic characteristics, and that the demand for research depends both on the parameters of the production function for knowledge and on the ability of the firm to appropriate the benefits from the knowledge it produces. We propose and implement a framework for decomposing the observed intraindustry variance In research intensity into three components: demand inducement, a firmspecific structural parameter, and errors in the observed variables. The main empirical findings are that errors in the variables (especially research) are important, that very little of the structural variance in research intensity is accounted for by demand inducement, and that the bulk of the variance is related to differences in the firmspecific parameter. Both the theoretical and empirical analysis indicate that it is not reasonable to treat the demand for research in a manner analogous to the demand for traditional inputs, including capital. Substantially richer models are required to provide insight into the structure of incentives driving the demand for research
Patents and R & D at the firm level : a first look by
Ariel Pakes(
Book
)
5 editions published in 1980 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This is a first report from a larger study of inventive activity of U.S. firms and some of its consequences. It reports on the relationship between patents applied for and R & D expenditures based on data for 121 large corporations covering the 19681975 period. The main conclusion is that there is a statistically significant relationship between a firm's R & D expenditures and the number of patents it applied for and receives. This relationship is very strong in the crosssectional dimension (squared partial correlations of .8 or higher). It is weaker in the withinfirm timeseries dimension (partial r[squared]'s of .2 to .3). Attempts to fit an unconstrained distributed lag relationship yields only significant coefficients for the first and last terms in the lag structure, indicating both a quick response of patenting to changes in R & D and a small but persistent effect of past R & D, the truncation of this long lag being reflected in a significant coefficient for R & D lagged five years. In spite of these difficulties, patent counts do measure something systematic and hence are worthy of further study
5 editions published in 1980 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This is a first report from a larger study of inventive activity of U.S. firms and some of its consequences. It reports on the relationship between patents applied for and R & D expenditures based on data for 121 large corporations covering the 19681975 period. The main conclusion is that there is a statistically significant relationship between a firm's R & D expenditures and the number of patents it applied for and receives. This relationship is very strong in the crosssectional dimension (squared partial correlations of .8 or higher). It is weaker in the withinfirm timeseries dimension (partial r[squared]'s of .2 to .3). Attempts to fit an unconstrained distributed lag relationship yields only significant coefficients for the first and last terms in the lag structure, indicating both a quick response of patenting to changes in R & D and a small but persistent effect of past R & D, the truncation of this long lag being reflected in a significant coefficient for R & D lagged five years. In spite of these difficulties, patent counts do measure something systematic and hence are worthy of further study
National Academy of Sciences colloquium : science, technology and the economy(
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2 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
2 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
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Ariel Pakes Amerikaans econoom
Ariel Pakes amerikansk ekonom
Ariel Pakes amerikansk økonom
Ariel Pakes Canadian American economist
Ariel Pakes israelischUSamerikanischer Wirtschaftswissenschaftler
Pakes, A.
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