skip to content
The art of causal conjecture Preview this item
ClosePreview this item

The art of causal conjecture

Author: Glenn Shafer
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. MIT Press 1996
Series: Artificial intelligence.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats

In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial  Read more...


(not yet rated) 0 with reviews - Be the first.

More like this

Find a copy online

Find a copy in the library

&AllPage.SpinnerRetrieving; Finding libraries that hold this item...


Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Glenn Shafer
ISBN: 026219368X 9780262193689
OCLC Number: 832507731
Notes: Literaturverz. S. [491] - 500
Description: XX, 511 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme
Contents: Part 1 Introduction: probability trees; many observers, many stances, many natures; causal relations as relations in nature's tree; evidence; measuring the average effect of a cause; causal diagrams; Humean events; three levels of causal language; an outline of the book. Part 2 Event trees: situations and events; the ordering of situations and Moivrean events; cuts; Humean events; Moivrean variables; Humean variables; event trees for stochastic processes; timing in event trees; intersecting event trees; notes on the literature. Part 3 Probability trees: some types of probability trees; axioms for the probabilities of Moivrean events; zero probabilities; a sample-space analysis of the event-tree axioms; probabilities and expected values for variables; Martingales; the expectation of a variable in a cut; conditional expected value and conditional expectation. Part 4 The meaning of probability: the interpretation of expected value; the interpretation of expectation; the long run; changes in belief; the empirical validation of probability; the diversity of uses of probability; notes on the literature. Part 5 Independent events: independence; weak independence; the principle of the common cause; conditional independence; notes on the literature. Part 6 Events tracking events: tracking; tracking and conditional independence; stochastic subsequence; singular diagrams for stochastic subsequence; conjunctive and interactive forks. Part 7 Events as signs of events: sign; weak sign; the ethics of causal talk; screening off. Part 8 Independent variables: unconditional independence; conditional independence; independence for partitions; independence for families of variables; individual properties of the independence relations. Part 9 Variables tracking variables: tracking and conditional independence - a summary; strong tracking; strong tracking and conditional independence; stochastic subsequence; functional dependence; tracking in mean; linear tracking; tracking by partitions; tracking by families of variables. Part 10 Variables as signs of variables: sign; linear sign; scored sign; families of variables. Part 11 An abstract theory of event trees: event trees as sets of sets; event trees as partially ordered sets; regular event trees; the resolution of Moivrean variables; Humean events and variables. Part 12 Martingale trees: examples of decision trees; the meaning of probability in a decision tree; Martingales; the structures of Martingale trees; probability and causality; lower and upper probability; the law of large numbers; notes on the literature. Part 13 Refining; examples of refinement; a constructive definition of finite refinement; axioms for refinement; lifting Moivrean events and variables; refining Martingale trees; grounding. Part 14 Principles of causal conjecture: the diversity of causal explanation; the mean effect of the happening of a Moivrean event. (Part contents).
Series Title: Artificial intelligence.
Responsibility: Glenn Shafer
More information:


Editorial reviews

Publisher Synopsis

"Causality plays an important role in many fields, from engineering to medicine to artificial intelligence. Glenn Shafer has written an important, scholarly study of causality. He starts with a novel Read more...

User-contributed reviews
Retrieving GoodReads reviews...
Retrieving DOGObooks reviews...


Be the first.
Confirm this request

You may have already requested this item. Please select Ok if you would like to proceed with this request anyway.

Linked Data

Primary Entity

<> # The art of causal conjecture
    a schema:Book, schema:CreativeWork ;
   library:oclcnum "832507731" ;
   library:placeOfPublication <> ;
   library:placeOfPublication <> ; # Cambridge, Mass.
   schema:about <> ; # Künstliche Intelligenz
   schema:about <> ; # Probabilities
   schema:about <> ;
   schema:about <> ; # Prediction (Logic)
   schema:about <> ; # Wahrscheinlichkeit
   schema:about <> ; # Causality (Physics)
   schema:about <> ; # Kausalität
   schema:about <> ; # Artificial intelligence
   schema:about <> ; # Stochastisches Modell--Graphentheorie
   schema:about <> ; # Graphentheorie--Stochastisches Modell
   schema:about <> ; # Causation
   schema:bookFormat bgn:PrintBook ;
   schema:creator <> ; # Glenn Shafer
   schema:datePublished "1996" ;
   schema:exampleOfWork <> ;
   schema:inLanguage "en" ;
   schema:isPartOf <> ; # Artificial intelligence.
   schema:name "The art of causal conjecture" ;
   schema:productID "832507731" ;
   schema:publication <> ;
   schema:publisher <> ; # MIT Press
   schema:url <> ;
   schema:url <> ;
   schema:url <> ;
   schema:url <> ;
   schema:workExample <> ;
   umbel:isLike <> ;
   wdrs:describedby <> ;

Related Entities

<> # Cambridge, Mass.
    a schema:Place ;
   schema:name "Cambridge, Mass." ;

<> # Artificial intelligence.
    a bgn:PublicationSeries ;
   schema:hasPart <> ; # The art of causal conjecture
   schema:name "Artificial intelligence." ;
   schema:name "Artificial intelligence" ;

<> # Artificial intelligence
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Artificial intelligence" ;

<> # Causality (Physics)
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Causality (Physics)" ;

<> # Graphentheorie--Stochastisches Modell
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Graphentheorie--Stochastisches Modell" ;

<> # Künstliche Intelligenz
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Künstliche Intelligenz" ;

<> # Prediction (Logic)
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Prediction (Logic)" ;

<> # Stochastisches Modell--Graphentheorie
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Stochastisches Modell--Graphentheorie" ;

<> # Wahrscheinlichkeit
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Wahrscheinlichkeit" ;

<> # Glenn Shafer
    a schema:Person ;
   schema:birthDate "1946" ;
   schema:familyName "Shafer" ;
   schema:givenName "Glenn" ;
   schema:name "Glenn Shafer" ;

    a schema:ProductModel ;
   schema:isbn "026219368X" ;
   schema:isbn "9780262193689" ;

Content-negotiable representations

Close Window

Please sign in to WorldCat 

Don't have an account? You can easily create a free account.