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Assessing IMF Lending : a model of sample selection.

Author: Nicolas Mäder; Jean-Guillaume Poulain; Julien Reynaud
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2019.
Series: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper, no. 19/157.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity to create an additional channel for sample selection at the country level. The results suggest that higher external  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Mäder, Nicolas.
Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection.
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2019
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Nicolas Mäder; Jean-Guillaume Poulain; Julien Reynaud
ISBN: 1513508687 9781513508689 1498324614 9781498324618
OCLC Number: 1113891705
Description: 1 online resource (24 pages)
Contents: Cover; Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection; Abstract; 1 Introduction; 2 Stylized facts; 3 Empirical methodology; 4 Results; 5 Scenarios; 6 Conclusion; References; A Appendix A --
Likelihood; B Appendix B --
Data
Series Title: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper, no. 19/157.

Abstract:

Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity to create an additional channel for sample selection at the country level. The results suggest that higher external financing needs, larger exchange rate depreciation, lower GDP growth, as well as deteriorated global financial conditions, are associated with larger individual IMF arrangement sizes. Using the estimated parameters, Monte Carlo simulation of a wide spectrum of global shock scenarios suggest that the distribution of potential aggregate IMF lending exhibits a substantial right tail. Our approach may provide an insightful input to broader policy discussions on the adequacy of the IMF resources.

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